极端洪灾情景下上海汽车制造业经济损失与波及效应评估

发布时间：2018-04-21 17:51

本文选题：极端洪灾情景 + 汽车制造业　；参考：《地理研究》2017年09期

【摘要】：随着全球气候变暖和全球极端气象、水文事件日益多发,沿海低地地区的产业系统面临着极端洪水等灾害的严重威胁。开展极端洪灾情景下沿海特大城市的产业经济损失评估,分析产业网络的波及效应,识别出产业空间损失最为严重的地带,可为沿海城市的气候变化适应和灾害风险管理提供新的思路与方法。以上海黄浦江极端洪灾模拟结果为灾害情景,基于2013年上海汽车制造业第三次经济普查微观数据,评估了上海汽车制造业受灾后的直接经济损失、停产损失,并结合投入—产出模型评估了上海汽车制造企业停产引发波及效应造成的产业关联损失。分析结果表明,在极端洪灾情景下:(1)上海市共有451家汽车制造企业受到灾害影响,占上海汽车制造企业总数的23.1%。(2)上海汽车制造业厂房建筑、生产设备、整车存货直接经济损失分别为3.1亿元、196.1亿元、9.7亿元。汽车整车制造企业、零部件及配件制造企业的停产损失分别为209.1亿元、69亿元,对相关产业分别造成了1037.6亿元、144.7亿元产业关联损失。受到相关产业停产、减产影响后,汽车整车制造、零部件及配件产业关联损失分别为120.9亿元、247.1亿元。产业关联损失明显大于停产损失和直接经济损失。(3)浦东新区生产设备直接经济损失和停产损失较为严重,分别为93.4亿元、221.7亿元,分别占全市的47.6%、79.7%。上海通用整车厂所在的浦东新区金桥镇停产损失为184.1亿元。(4)由于2.5~3.0 m洪水水深区间分布有两家大型整车厂,因此停产损失最为严重,高达255.2亿元。上海市各级政府需要进一步加强黄浦江、苏州河流域的防汛工程以及工业园区的防洪设施建设;相关企业需要制定周密的业务连续性规划,降低企业停产后波及效应衍生的系统性风险。
[Abstract]:With the global climate warming and extreme weather, hydrological events are more and more frequent, and the industrial system of coastal low-lying areas is facing the serious threat of extreme floods and other disasters. To carry out an assessment of industrial economic losses in coastal mega-cities under extreme flood scenarios, analyze the spillover effects of industrial networks, and identify the areas where industrial space losses are the most serious. It can provide new ideas and methods for climate change adaptation and disaster risk management in coastal cities. Based on the results of the Shanghai Huangpu River extreme Flood disaster simulation, and based on the microcosmic data of the third Shanghai Automobile Manufacturing Economic Census in 2013, the direct economic losses and shutdown losses of the Shanghai auto manufacturing industry were evaluated. Combined with the input-output model, the industrial association losses caused by the spillover effect caused by the shutdown of Shanghai automobile manufacturing enterprises are evaluated. The results show that, under the extreme flood scenario, there are 451 auto manufacturing enterprises in Shanghai affected by the disaster, accounting for 23.1.1% of the total number of auto manufacturing enterprises in Shanghai. The direct economic loss of vehicle inventory was 310 million yuan, 19.61 billion yuan, 970 million yuan respectively. The shutdown losses of automobile manufacturing enterprises, parts and accessories manufacturers were 20.91 billion yuan and 6.9 billion yuan respectively, which caused 103.76 billion yuan and 14.47 billion yuan related losses to related industries, respectively. Affected by the shutdown of related industries, the related losses of automobile manufacturing, parts and accessories industry were 12.09 billion yuan and 24.71 billion yuan respectively. The direct economic loss and shutdown loss of production equipment in Pudong New area are more serious, which are 9.34 billion yuan and 22.17 billion yuan respectively, accounting for 47.6% and 79.7% of the whole city respectively. The shutdown loss of Jinqiao Town in Pudong New area is 18.41 billion yuan. Because there are two large vehicle plants in the range of 2.5 ~ 3.0m flood depth, the loss of shutdown is the most serious, as high as 25.52 billion yuan. Shanghai governments at all levels need to further strengthen flood control projects in the Huangpu River and Suzhou River basins and flood control facilities in industrial parks, and relevant enterprises need to formulate careful business continuity planning, Reduce the systemic risk derived from the ripple effect after the shutdown of the enterprise.
【作者单位】：上海师范大学地理系;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41301168,71603168,41401603)
【分类号】：F426.471

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