省域“能源-经济-环境”系统协调度的时空效应与预警研究

发布时间：2018-04-24 08:09

本文选题：省域3E系统协调度 + 时空效应　；参考：《中国矿业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：目前,我国经济发展与能源、环境之间的矛盾较突出,社会的可持续发展受到了威胁。因此研究能源、经济和环境三个系统的协调发展有着重要的理论与现实意义。首先,从能源、经济和环境三个维度构建了省域3E系统协调度评价指标体系,运用综合-距离型协调度评价模型测算出2006~2014年我国30个省份的协调度并对其进行了实证分析。结果发现:我国整体3E系统协调度整体上呈上升趋势,其中2010年为从严重失调等级转变为中度失调等级的转折点;各省份的3E系统协调度及其发展趋势存在明显差异。其次,运用变异系数法、ESDA、空间马尔科夫链方法对省域3E系统协调度的时空效应和演化趋势进行了分析。运用变异系数法对3E系统协调度的区域差异进行了研究,结果表明:整体来看,各省间的3E系统协调度发展差异具有缩小的趋势;按常规6大区域来看,不同区域内省份间的协调度差异随时间的变化具有不同的发展趋势,变化幅度也不尽相同。运用ESDA法研究了省域3E系统协调度的空间格局与空间相关性,结果表明:3E系统协调度在全局上呈正向空间相关;局部存在差异化的空间集聚模式,其中西北和西南区域为“低-低集聚”模式,华东和华南区域为“高-高集聚”模式;逐年比较2006~2014年的空间聚类模式图可以从时间角度探索省域3E系统协调度的空间聚类模式的发展趋势,发现“低-低集聚”模式的省份数量有缩减的趋势,“高-高集聚”模式有渐渐向南扩散、数量增多的趋势。然后,运用空间马尔科夫链方法研究了省域3E系统协调度在受当期空间滞后影响下的一步状态转移条件概率,即其时空演化趋势,结果表明:省域3E系统协调度的发展趋势受其空间滞后影响较大,主要表现为较高值的空间滞后对其有正向的影响。通过LISA马尔科夫链方法对省域3E系统协调度空间聚类模式的时空演化趋势进行了量化研究,发现:四种聚类模式相对稳定性存在差异,“高-高集聚”模式的相对稳定性最强,“低-低集聚”模式的最弱;同时,从转移路径的分类来看,省域3E系统协调度空间聚类模式的主要转移路径类型为饱和型转移路径,即存在溢出效应。然后,基于协调度的时空效应,构建了动态空间面板数据模型对未来5年省域3E系统的协调度进行了预测并在此基础上进行了预警研究。结果表明:各省的3E系统协调度均呈现逐年上升趋势;处于重警级别的区域范围逐渐向西收拢缩小,并将被中警和轻警级别替代;处于轻警级别的区域范围不断扩大,并向内陆和北面转移扩散;到2019年,将有四个省的协调度率先达到无警级别,分别是山东、浙江、福建和江西,且都属于华东区域。
[Abstract]:At present, the contradiction between economic development, energy and environment is prominent, and the sustainable development of society is threatened. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the coordinated development of energy, economy and environment. Firstly, the evaluation index system of coordination degree of provincial 3e system is constructed from three dimensions of energy, economy and environment, and the coordination degree of 30 provinces in China from 2006 to 2014 is calculated and analyzed empirically by using the comprehensive distance coordination degree evaluation model. The results show that the overall coordination degree of the 3e system in China is on the rise, among which the year 2010 is the turning point from the serious maladjustment grade to the moderate one, and there are obvious differences in the coordination degree and the development trend of the 3e system in different provinces. Secondly, the space-time effect and evolution trend of the coordination degree of 3e system in provincial area are analyzed by using the coefficient of variation method (ESDA) and the spatial Markov chain method. The variation coefficient method is used to study the regional difference of 3e system coordination degree. The results show that the development difference of 3e system coordination degree among provinces has the trend of narrowing; The difference of the degree of coordination between provinces in different regions has different trends with time, and the range of change is also different. The spatial pattern and spatial correlation of coordination degree of provincial 3e system are studied by using ESDA method. The results show that the coordination degree of the 3e system is positively spatially correlated globally, and there is a differential spatial aggregation mode. The northwest and southwest regions are the "low-low agglomeration" model, and the east and south China regions are "high-high agglomeration" models. Comparing the spatial cluster pattern map from 2006 to 2014 year by year, we can explore the development trend of the spatial clustering model of the coordination degree of 3e system in provincial area from the angle of time, and find that the number of provinces with "low-low agglomeration" mode has a tendency to decrease. The pattern of high-high agglomeration has the tendency of gradually spreading southward and increasing the quantity. Then, the spatial Markov chain method is used to study the probability of the one-step state transition condition of the coordination degree of the provincial 3e system under the influence of the current spatial lag, that is, the temporal and spatial evolution trend. The results show that the development trend of the coordination degree of the provincial 3e system is greatly affected by its spatial lag, which mainly shows that the higher value of the spatial lag has a positive effect on it. Based on the LISA Markov chain method, the temporal and spatial evolution trends of spatial cluster model of coordination degree of provincial 3e system are quantitatively studied. It is found that the relative stability of the four clustering models is different, and the relative stability of the "high-high agglomeration" model is the strongest. At the same time, according to the classification of transfer path, the main transfer path type of spatial cluster model of 3e system coordination degree in provincial area is saturated transfer path, that is, there exists spillover effect. Then, based on the spatiotemporal effect of the coordination degree, the dynamic spatial panel data model is constructed to predict the coordination degree of the provincial 3e system in the next five years, and on this basis, the early warning research is carried out. The results show that the degree of coordination of 3e system in each province is increasing year by year; the area at the level of heavy warning gradually narrows to the west and will be replaced by the level of middle police and light police; the area at the level of light police is expanding continuously. By 2019, four provinces, namely Shandong, Zhejiang, Fujian and Jiangxi, will be the first to reach the level of no warning, and all of them will belong to the eastern China region.
【学位授予单位】：中国矿业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X2;F426.2;F127

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