中国PPI与CPI背离原因分析

发布时间：2018-04-26 01:32

本文选题：CPI与PPI背离 + 财政政策　；参考：《价格理论与实践》2017年04期

【摘要】：自2008年国际金融危机爆发以来,国际国内环境出现新变化,国内价格水平变动也出现了新的特征:CPI与PPI的走势出现长时间的背离,达历史新高。本文基于国际国内现阶段特征背景,综合了我国宏观货币政策、财政政策以及国际价格变化因素,建立VAR模型来探究我国CPI与PPI的背离原因。研究表明:国际商品价格下跌是我国现阶段价格指数背离的主要原因;央行近年来宽松货币政策一定程度上加大了价格指数的背离;而财政政策的影响较小,短期内缓和了CPI与PPI的背离,从长期看其影响并不稳定。
[Abstract]:Since the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008, there have been new changes in the international and domestic environment, as well as new features in the domestic price level. The trend of PPI and PPI has deviated for a long time, reaching a record high. Based on the characteristic background of international and domestic present stage, this paper synthesizes the factors of China's macro-monetary policy, fiscal policy and international price change, and establishes the VAR model to explore the reasons for the deviation between China's CPI and PPI. The research shows that the international commodity price decline is the main reason for the deviation of China's price index at the present stage; the central bank's loose monetary policy in recent years has increased the deviation of the price index to a certain extent; and the fiscal policy has little effect on it. In the short term, moderates the deviation between CPI and PPI, and its impact is unstable in the long run.
【作者单位】：山西财经大学;
【分类号】：F424;F726

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