河南省能源消费碳排放动态变化及空间分异

发布时间：2018-04-29 06:43

本文选题：碳排放 + ImPACT等式　；参考：《地域研究与开发》2017年04期

【摘要】：在分析河南省1978—2015年能源消费碳排放总量和结构变化的基础上,利用Im PACT等式对河南省碳排放驱动因素进行了研究和对未来碳排放量进行了情景预测,并运用空间自相关分析法探讨了空间分异特征。结果表明:(1)1978—2015年,河南省碳排放量总体上呈现增加的趋势,年均增长5.11%,由煤炭和石油消费导致的碳排放比重一直稳定在95%以上。(2)弹性分析表明人均真实GDP增加1%将导致人均能源消费量增加0.48%,利用强度下降0.52%,而环境影响增加0.53%。(3)保持经济增长的同时,与2011—2015年相比,1978—2015年效率年均增长率提高5.25倍,是河南省实现循环经济建设的一种可行方案。(4)河南省2015年碳排放全局Moran’s I值为0.047,呈微弱空间正相关,各地市碳排放具有明显的二元结构特征,空间集聚特征不明显。
[Abstract]:Based on the analysis of the total amount and structure of carbon emissions from energy consumption in Henan Province from 1978 to 2015, the driving factors of carbon emissions in Henan Province were studied by Im PACT equation and the scenarios of future carbon emissions were predicted. The spatial differentiation characteristics are discussed by using spatial autocorrelation analysis. The results show that from 1978 to 2015, the total carbon emissions of Henan Province showed an increasing trend. Elastic analysis shows that 1% increase in real GDP per capita will lead to 0.48% increase in per capita energy consumption, 0.52% decrease in utilization intensity and 0.52% increase in environmental impact. Add 0.53 to maintain economic growth at the same time, Compared with 2011-2015, the average annual growth rate of efficiency in 1978-2015 is 5.25 times higher than that in 2011-2015, which is a feasible scheme for realizing circular economy construction in Henan Province. The overall Moran's I value of carbon emissions in Henan Province in 2015 is 0.047, showing a weak spatial positive correlation. The carbon emission of each city has the obvious dual structure characteristic, the spatial agglomeration characteristic is not obvious.
【作者单位】：兰州大学资源环境学院;兰州大学中国西部循环经济研究中心;河南大学环境与规划学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41471462,41601112) 河南省教育厅人文社会科学研究资助项目(2015-QN-138) 河南大学科研基金项目(2015YBZR013)
【分类号】：F426.2;X24

【相似文献】