我国钢铁和煤炭去产能对就业的影响——基于投入产出表的实证分析

发布时间：2018-05-01 01:04

本文选题：去产能 + 就业　；参考：《宏观经济研究》2017年10期

【摘要】：以往对钢铁和煤炭去产能就业影响的研究,大多仅限于研究和分析这些过剩产能产业在去产能过程中本身面临的失业问题。这些研究忽略了产业之间是有联系的,一个产业的产能化解势必带来其他产业的产能消减,从而带来其他产业的失业问题,因此这些研究会低估去产能对就业的影响。本文采用投入产出分析方法弥补了这一点不足,利用2012年139部门的投入产出表和2013年经济普查数据,估算出在最大去产能任务下,钢铁和煤炭产业直接损失的最大就业量为224.46万人,而通过中间投入拉动对其他产业就业的最大间接影响则会达到457.62万人,总计损失达到682.08万人,是仅考虑直接影响的3倍。忽略去产能对其他产业就业的间接影响,将严重低估去产能的失业风险。
[Abstract]:Previous studies on the impact of steel and coal deproductivity employment were mostly limited to the study and analysis of the unemployment problems faced by these overcapacity industries in the process of deproductive capacity. These studies ignore that there is a link between industries, the capacity of one industry is bound to reduce the capacity of other industries, resulting in unemployment in other industries, so these studies will underestimate the impact of deproductivity on employment. This paper uses input-output analysis method to make up for this deficiency. Using the input-output table of 139 sectors in 2012 and the data of the 2013 economic census, we estimate that under the maximum deproductivity task, The maximum direct employment loss of steel and coal industry is 2.2446 million people, while the biggest indirect effect of intermediate input pull on the employment of other industries will reach 4.5762 million people, and the total loss will reach 6.8208 million people, which is three times that of only considering direct impact. Ignoring the indirect impact of deproductivity on employment in other industries would seriously underestimate the risk of job losses.
【作者单位】：国家发展改革委产业经济与技术经济研究所;
【基金】：中国经济学术基金资助研究课题“新时期产业政策的理论创新和我国产业政策转型研究”(A2016041006) 国家发展改革委基本科研业务专项的资助
【分类号】：F223;F249.2;F426.21;F426.31

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