河北省可再生能源政策分析的CGE模型研究

发布时间：2018-05-13 21:34

本文选题：河北省 + 可再生能源　；参考：《华北电力大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国“十二五”规划提出了推动能源生产和利用方式变革的新思路,确定了到2020年实现非化石能源消费比重提高到15%和单位GDP碳减排40%~45%的两个约束性指标。河北省作为能源消耗和碳排放的大省,因此需要承担较大的碳减排实施压力。可再生能源的发展对中国实现可持续发展至关重要,同时也是规避传统能源价格波动风险的一种方式。从可持续发展方面来看,二氧化碳的减排需求,以及对于未来能源短缺和气候变化的担忧促使政府采取政策措施来促进可再生能源发展。河北地区的可再生能源具备良好的资源发展基础,其品种齐全,数量众多,资源基础非常雄厚。本研究将煤炭、石油和天然气、电能、太阳能、风能以及生物质能作为主要能源要素,构建了河北省可再生能源政策CGE模型,并在模型研究的基础上实证分析河北省可再生能源政策对经济发展、能源消费以及碳减排等宏观指标的影响。本文首先阐述了针对河北省可再生能源发展政策的研究背景及研究意义,分析了本研究的必要性和重要性;其次,从可再生能源政策和CGE模型两个方面,阐述了国内外在相关领域研究的现状,为本研究提供借鉴和指导。接着,详细分析了河北省能源以及可再生能源利用的现状,并介绍了河北省可再生能源(太阳能、风能以及生物质能)利用模式和可再生能源政策的情况,在此基础上对河北省可再生能源结构进行分析;分析发现煤炭、石油和天然气为主的化石能源仍然是河北省能源消费的主体,其中以煤炭消费为主,可再生能源的利用比重较低约2%,河北地区拥有发展可再生能源的良好条件,具有巨大的发展空间。随后,在介绍CGE模型相关理论的基础上,结合河北省能源消费以及能源政策的实际构建了河北省可再生能源政策分析的CGE模型,包括了能源模块、生产模块、贸易模块、价格模块、消费模块、均衡模块以及可再生能源模块。在模型构建的基础上,结合河北省投入产出表设计了河北省可再生能源政策分析的社会核算矩阵,并运用交叉熵法对原始SAM矩阵进行平衡处理;此外,给出了模型公式中关键参数的取值。最后,基于所建立的河北省可再生能源政策分析的CGE模型以及社会核算矩阵来分析河北省太阳能、风能以及生物质能的电价政策对可再生能源、能源、经济以及环境等的影响效应并提出政策建议。
[Abstract]:The 12th Five-Year Plan of our country puts forward a new idea to promote the transformation of energy production and utilization mode, and determines two binding targets of increasing the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption to 15% by 2020 and reducing carbon emissions by 40% and 45% per unit GDP. As a big province of energy consumption and carbon emission, Hebei Province needs to bear the pressure of carbon emission reduction. The development of renewable energy is very important for China to realize sustainable development, and it is also a way to avoid the risk of traditional energy price fluctuation. In terms of sustainable development, the demand for carbon dioxide emissions reductions, as well as concerns about future energy shortages and climate change, have prompted governments to adopt policy measures to promote renewable energy. Hebei renewable energy has a good resource development foundation, its variety is complete, the quantity is numerous, the resource base is very strong. Taking coal, oil and natural gas, electric energy, solar energy, wind energy and biomass energy as the main energy elements, the CGE model of renewable energy policy in Hebei Province was constructed. The impact of renewable energy policy on economic development, energy consumption and carbon emission reduction in Hebei Province is analyzed empirically on the basis of the model. In this paper, the background and significance of the research on renewable energy development policy in Hebei Province are first expounded, and the necessity and importance of this study are analyzed. Secondly, from two aspects of renewable energy policy and CGE model, The current situation of domestic and international research in related fields is expounded, which provides reference and guidance for this study. Then, the current situation of energy and renewable energy utilization in Hebei Province is analyzed in detail, and the utilization patterns and renewable energy policies of renewable energy (solar, wind and biomass energy) in Hebei Province are introduced. On this basis, the structure of renewable energy in Hebei Province is analyzed, and it is found that fossil energy, which is dominated by coal, oil and natural gas, is still the main source of energy consumption in Hebei Province, in which coal consumption is the main source. The utilization proportion of renewable energy is low about 2%. Hebei has good conditions for developing renewable energy and has a huge space for development. Then, on the basis of introducing the theory of CGE model, combined with the actual energy consumption and energy policy of Hebei Province, the CGE model of Hebei renewable energy policy analysis is constructed, which includes energy module, production module, trade module. Price module, consumption module, balance module and renewable energy module. Based on the model construction, the social accounting matrix of Hebei renewable energy policy analysis is designed based on the input-output table of Hebei Province, and the original SAM matrix is balanced by cross-entropy method. The values of key parameters in the model formula are given. Finally, based on the established CGE model and social accounting matrix of renewable energy policy analysis in Hebei Province, the electricity price policy of solar, wind and biomass energy in Hebei Province is analyzed. Economic and environmental effects and policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.2

【参考文献】