中国制造业产业结构的系统性优化——从产出结构优化和要素结构配套视角的分析

发布时间：2018-05-20 05:28

本文选题：产出结构 + 要素结构　；参考：《经济研究》2017年10期

【摘要】：制造业产业结构的优化调整既是"中国制造2025"的核心内容之一,亦是推动"供给侧改革"的重要抓手,但学术界往往未能充分利用开放经济的相关信息和技术水平的贡献作用,并缺乏对要素结构进行相关配套分析。为此,本文以中国制造业两位数行业为样本,对其进行产业结构的系统性优化,即先分析了2015年产出结构的优化调整目标及节能减排潜力,然后分析了各种要素投入的联动配套问题,并重点针对资本存量要素,测算并分析它的产能利用率状况。研究结果表明:(1)制造业产出结构具备较大的优化调整空间,可以为"经济增长和环境保护"双赢的实现提供支撑,能够让2015年能源强度和碳强度比原始值分别降低18.08%和17.42%。(2)为降低要素错配,制造业产出结构优化调整后需要各种投入要素进行联动配套,特别是资本存量水平需要有较大幅度的变动。(3)资本要素产能利用率水平的测算结果则进一步显示,受经济增速放缓和投资惯性的影响,2015年制造业产能利用率(56.14%)远低于国民经济十二五规划中后期(2008—2010)的均值水平(73.27%),而投入要素联动配套后的产能利用率则可以回升至后一水平。
[Abstract]:The optimization and adjustment of manufacturing industry structure is not only one of the core contents of "made in China 2025", but also an important grasp to promote "supply-side reform". However, the academic circles often fail to make full use of the contribution of the relevant information and technology level of the open economy. And the lack of relevant analysis of the structure of the elements. Therefore, this paper takes the double-digit industry of Chinese manufacturing industry as a sample to systematically optimize its industrial structure, that is, to analyze the target of optimizing and adjusting the output structure in 2015 and the potential of energy saving and emission reduction. Then, the paper analyzes the linkage of various factors, and calculates and analyzes the utilization rate of production capacity according to the capital stock factor. The results show that the manufacturing output structure has a large room for optimization and adjustment, which can provide support for the win-win realization of "economic growth and environmental protection". The energy intensity and carbon intensity of 2015 can be reduced by 18.08% and 17.422% respectively compared with the original value. In order to reduce the mismatch of factors, the optimization and adjustment of manufacturing output structure need all kinds of input factors to carry on the linkage matching. In particular, the results of the calculation of the level of utilization of capital factor capacity, which need to be changed by a large margin, further show that, Affected by the slowdown of economic growth and inertia of investment, the capacity utilization ratio of manufacturing industry in 2015 (56.14) is far lower than the average level of 73.27% in the middle and late period of the 12th Five-Year Plan (2008-2010), while the utilization rate of production capacity after the linkage of input elements can rise to the latter level.
【作者单位】：中国社科院工业经济研究所;南京财经大学经济学院;
【基金】：中国社会科学院创新工程项目“大数据技术在经济预测预警中的应用” 国家自科基金政策研究重点支持项目(71742001);国家自科基金青年项目(71703065) 教育部人文社会科学基金青年项目(17YJC790195)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：F121.3;F424

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