我国能源供需结构均衡度及其动态经济影响

发布时间：2018-05-21 10:51

  本文选题：能源供给结构 + 能源需求结构　； 参考：《科技管理研究》2017年15期

【摘要】：对我国能源供需结构,基于信息熵方法,分析能源供给子系统和需求子系统内部的均衡度;基于协调度方法,分析能源供需结构均衡度;基于状态空间方程模型,分析能源供需结构均衡度对经济的动态影响。研究得出结论:我国能源供给子系统内均衡度处于[0.54,0.62]之间,除2013年开始呈上升趋势外,其余年份均处于波动状态;需求子系统内均衡度处于[0.53,0.71]之间,且一直呈上升状态;能源供需结构均衡度处于[0.73,0.81]之间,除2014年为基本均衡外,其余年份均为勉强均衡;能源供需结构均衡度对经济总量影响的弹性系数值处于[1.88,3.58]之间,弹性系数曲线呈倒U型,弹性系数值从2010年开始进入下降阶段。
[Abstract]:For the structure of energy supply and demand in China, the equilibrium degree of energy supply subsystem and demand subsystem is analyzed based on information entropy method, the equilibrium degree of energy supply and demand structure is analyzed based on coordination degree method, and the state space equation model is used to analyze the equilibrium degree of energy supply and demand structure. The dynamic influence of energy supply and demand structure equilibrium on economy is analyzed. It is concluded that the equilibrium degree of energy supply subsystem in China is between [0.54 卤0.62], except for the rising trend in 2013, the equilibrium degree in the demand subsystem is in the range of [0.530.71], and it has been on the rise state for a long time, except for the rising trend of the energy supply subsystem in 2013, and the equilibrium degree in the demand subsystem is in the range of [0.530.71]. The equilibrium degree of energy supply and demand structure is in the range of [0.73 卤0.81], except for the basic equilibrium in 2014, the balance of energy supply and demand structure is barely balanced in other years, and the elastic coefficient value of the influence of energy supply and demand structure equilibrium on the total economic volume is between [1.88 and 3.58], and the curve of energy supply and demand structure is of inverted U shape. The elastic coefficient value has entered the descending stage since 2010.
【作者单位】： 中国矿业大学(北京)管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“煤矿绿色生态投入动力分析及机制设计研究”(71303235) 中国煤炭工业协会“十三五”重点项目“煤炭工业‘十三五’结构调整规划研究”(2015207010165)
【分类号】：F426.2
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本文编号：1918897