云南有色金属产业联动效应分析

发布时间：2018-05-23 23:18

本文选题：云南有色金属产业 + 投入产出分析　；参考：《云南财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：经济系统中部门间总是通过投入产出关系而紧密联系,产业的发展不直接均匀影响经济的发展情况,而是首先作用于某一个或者几个密切关联的产业,然后再通过这些产业联动影响到其他关联部门,之后进一步对经济系统产生作用。云南有色金属资源丰富,因此在“新常态”背景下,通过投入产出关系研究云南有色金属产业的关联产业,分析云南有色金属产业的生产效率现状,再进一步分析云南有色金属产业对其他产业的静态、动态联动效应,对准确预测经济发展,为政策建议提供依据,实现整个云南经济更加平稳、健康发展有着重要现实意义。本文在云南省各部门投入产出关系的基础上,通过计算并分析2002年至2012年43部门前向、后向关联系数,分析出云南省整个经济系统中与有色金属产业前向、后向关联的产业部门共23个。为进一步分析云南有色金属产业现状,将全国共31个省市的有色金属产业生产效率进行三阶段DEA分析。再以云南有色金属产业为主体,进一步引入26部门可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,对云南有色金属产业受到某一冲击后整个经济部门的静态联动效应进行分析。之后引入26部门的动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,分析26个部门在受到单位1的冲击时,在未来60期对各个经济部门的动态联动效应,较好地模拟现实情况下有色金属产业受到外界冲击时,其他各个关联部门的联动情况。本文得到的政策建议主要为:一是从空间上,当有色金属产业价格下降幅度大于40%时,除了考虑对有色金属产业本身的影响,还需要考虑与其关联程度密切的电力、热力生产和供应等部门;当云南有色金属产品价格上涨时,大多下游部门的生产成本将提高,应鼓励这些部门从其他角度降低成本,且价格上涨时有色金属产业利益主要从企业、居民向政府利益分配转移,可以考虑对企业、居民的相应补贴。二是从时间上,当政策对有色金属产业产生冲击时,除了考虑其产业本身,应同时考虑对电器、机械和器材部门,通用设备、金属制品等部门的带动作用,对信息传输部门等部门的替代作用,提前对相关部门进行政策支持。
[Abstract]:In the economic system, sectors are always closely linked by input-output relations. The development of industries does not directly affect the development of the economy, but first acts on one or more closely related industries. Then through these industrial linkage to other related sectors, and then further impact on the economic system. Yunnan is rich in nonferrous metal resources. Therefore, under the background of "new normal", the paper studies the related industries of Yunnan nonferrous metal industry through input-output relationship, and analyzes the present production efficiency of Yunnan nonferrous metal industry. Further analysis of the static and dynamic linkage effect of Yunnan nonferrous metal industry to other industries is of great practical significance in accurately predicting economic development, providing the basis for policy suggestions, and achieving a more stable and healthy development of the whole Yunnan economy. On the basis of the input-output relationship of various departments in Yunnan Province, this paper, by calculating and analyzing the forward and backward correlation coefficients of 43 departments from 2002 to 2012, analyzes the forward direction of the non-ferrous metal industry in the whole economic system of Yunnan Province. There are 23 backward-related industrial departments. In order to further analyze the present situation of nonferrous metal industry in Yunnan, the production efficiency of nonferrous metal industry in 31 provinces and cities in China was analyzed by three-stage DEA. Taking Yunnan nonferrous metal industry as the main body, 26 departments can calculate the general equilibrium CGE model is further introduced to analyze the static linkage effect of Yunnan nonferrous metal industry after a certain impact on the whole economic sector. Then the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of 26 departments is introduced to analyze the dynamic linkage effect of 26 departments in the next 60 periods under the impact of unit 1. When the non-ferrous metal industry is impacted by the outside world, the linkage of other related departments is well simulated. The policy recommendations obtained in this paper are as follows: first, in space, when the price of the non-ferrous metal industry falls by more than 40 percent, in addition to considering the impact on the non-ferrous metal industry itself, it is also necessary to consider the power that is closely related to the non-ferrous metal industry. Sectors such as thermal production and supply; when prices for non-ferrous metals in Yunnan rise, production costs will rise in most downstream sectors, and these sectors should be encouraged to reduce costs from other perspectives. And when the price increases, the benefits of non-ferrous metal industry are mainly transferred from enterprises, residents to the government benefit distribution, we can consider the corresponding subsidies to enterprises and residents. Second, when the policy impacts the nonferrous metal industry, in addition to considering the industry itself, it should also consider the leading role of the electrical, mechanical and equipment sectors, general equipment, metal products, and so on. To the information transmission department and so on the substitution function, carries on the policy support to the related department in advance.
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.32

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