基于灰色系统理论的碳排放权价值评估

发布时间：2018-05-24 00:44

本文选题：碳排放权 + 价值评估　；参考：《华北电力大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,“雾霾”成为全国关注的焦点,环境问题给我们的生活带来严重影响,发展低碳经济成为主流。为实现能源节约、排放的减少,我国积极建立国内碳排放权的相关交易机制,降低二氧化碳等气体的污染排放量。各行各业都积极实施减排,例如保定从今年7月份将燃油公交车都换为“零排放,低碳出行”的电动公交车。我国将于2017年全国启动碳交易的公开市场,因此有效评估出合理范围内的碳排放权的价值,有利于规范碳买卖市场的秩序,帮助企业去选择合理的减排的政策,实现经济效益的整体优化,还有环境改善。现阶段我国对碳排放权价值的研究还比较少,碳排放权作为一项特殊的资产,运用传统的评估方法对其价值进行评估还存在一些不足,因此构建一个适用碳排放权价值的评估方法势在必行。本文以碳排放权及其价值为研究对象,运用灰色系统理论模型对二级市场下的碳排放权价值进行了客观科学的评估。首先,阐述了碳排放权的相关概念、性质分析、价值评估以及灰色系统理论的定义、主要内容、应用范围,确定了碳排放权的资产性质及其价值特性;其次,根据碳排放权价值的特性分析了传统评估方法存在的不足,成本法资料易获取,而灰色系统理论有助于分析评估中存在的不确定性,因此选用灰色系统理论对成本法的评估进行调整;从经济、市场以及环境三个维度对影响碳排放权价值的因素进行分析,构建影响因素指标评估体系,并在此基础上建立了碳排放权价值灰色系统综合评估模型,确定最终的碳排放权价值。最后,根据建立的评估模型对某发电集团下的A风电项目碳排放权价值的评估进行应用,得出的碳排放权价值在合理判断区间之内,为有效地评估碳排放权这种特殊资产的价值提供新的思路。
[Abstract]:In recent years, "haze" has become the focus of national attention, environmental problems have brought serious impact on our lives, and the development of low-carbon economy has become the mainstream. In order to achieve energy conservation and emission reduction, China has actively established a domestic trading mechanism of carbon emission rights to reduce the emissions of carbon dioxide and other gases. Various industries are actively implementing emissions reduction, such as Baoding from July this year fuel buses are replaced with "zero emissions, low carbon travel" electric buses. China will launch an open market for carbon trading in 2017, so effectively evaluating the value of carbon emission rights within a reasonable range is conducive to standardizing the order of the carbon trading market and helping enterprises to choose reasonable emission reduction policies. Realize the overall optimization of economic benefits, and improve the environment. At present, there are few researches on the value of carbon emission rights in our country. As a special asset, there are still some shortcomings in using traditional methods to evaluate the value of carbon emission rights. Therefore, it is imperative to construct a method to evaluate the value of carbon emission rights. In this paper, the value of carbon emission rights in the secondary market is evaluated objectively and scientifically by using the grey system theory model, taking the carbon emission rights and their value as the research object. Firstly, the definition, main content and application scope of carbon emission right are introduced, including the definition, property analysis, value evaluation and grey system theory. Secondly, the property of carbon emission right and its value characteristic are determined. According to the characteristics of the value of carbon emission rights, the shortcomings of the traditional assessment methods are analyzed. The cost method data are easy to obtain, while the grey system theory is helpful to analyze the uncertainty in the assessment. Therefore, the grey system theory is used to adjust the evaluation of cost method, and the factors affecting the value of carbon emission rights are analyzed from the three dimensions of economy, market and environment, and the evaluation system of influencing factors is constructed. On this basis, the grey system comprehensive evaluation model of carbon emission right value is established to determine the final carbon emission right value. Finally, according to the established evaluation model, the value of carbon emission rights of A wind power project under a power generation group is applied, and the value of carbon emission right is within a reasonable judgment range. It provides a new way to evaluate the value of carbon emission right as a special asset.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X196;F426.61

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