国际原油供给新变革下的寡头合作竞争博弈分析

发布时间：2018-06-09 03:26

本文选题：竞争合作 + Cournot模型　；参考：《石油科学通报》2017年01期

【摘要】：页岩革命推动美国超越沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯,成为世界第一大原油生产国。美国借助页岩油,介入原先由欧佩克和非欧佩克主导的常规原油供给博弈中,改变了国际原油供给市场格局。为分析未来竞争态势,研判未来格局中摇摆国发挥的作用,本文构建了寡头竞争博弈模型并分别求解了竞争情景和合作情景下欧佩克、非欧佩克传统产油国和美国的纳什均衡供给量、利润和桶油利润,并在此基础上量化分析了摇摆国在维持石油行业利润中发挥的关键作用。均衡求解结果显示,尽管美国加入供给角逐,欧佩克与非欧佩克传统产油国之间缺乏合作动力,国际原油供应格局趋向三足鼎立、共同竞争的局面。美国和沙特阿拉伯均具有成为摇摆国的潜力。
[Abstract]:The shale revolution pushed the United States ahead of Saudi Arabia and Russia to become the world's largest crude oil producer. With the help of shale oil, the United States intervened in the game of conventional crude oil supply, which was dominated by OPEC and non-OPEC, and changed the pattern of international crude oil supply market. In order to analyze the situation of future competition and study the role of swing countries in the future pattern, this paper constructs a game model of oligopoly competition and solves the competition scenario and cooperation scenario of OPEC, respectively. On the basis of the equilibrium supply, profit and barrel profit of the non-OPEC traditional oil producers and the United States, the key role played by the swing countries in maintaining the oil industry profits is analyzed quantitatively. The equilibrium results show that although the United States has entered the supply competition, there is a lack of cooperation power between OPEC and non-OPEC traditional oil producing countries, and the international crude oil supply pattern tends to be triple-standing and competing together. Both the US and Saudi Arabia have the potential to become swing states.
【作者单位】：中国石油大学(北京)中国能源战略研究院;中国石油天然气集团政策研究室;
【分类号】：F416.22

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