中国食糖进口贸易的大国效应分析——兼论当前中国食糖进口激增的影响

发布时间：2018-06-09 12:19

本文选题：食糖进口 + 进口激增　；参考：《世界农业》2017年07期

【摘要】：近年来中国食糖进口量占世界食糖进口规模的比重不断攀升,因此食糖的进口贸易有可能存在大国效应,鉴于此,本研究采用VAR模型,就其进行了实证检验与分析。本研究首先对所选用的研究方法、模型、变量,以及数据的平稳性进行介绍分析,构建出了平稳的VAR模型,然后运用脉冲响应分析技术和方差分解技术。研究发现,当前中国食糖进口贸易不存在大国效应。本研究还发现:(1)无论是在短期内,还是在长期内,中国食糖进口激增对国内食糖价格的影响非常大。(2)短期内,国内外食糖的价差,是导致短期内中国食糖进口激增的主要原因之一,而从长期来看,中国食糖进口主要是为了弥补国内食糖产需的缺口。(3)长期内,随着食糖国际价格的上涨,将会对中国食糖进口规模产生抑制,从而在一定程度上改善中国食糖的贸易条件,扭转当前食糖进口激增的局面。最后文章提出了相关政策建议,指出不仅要认识到国际贸易大国效应发生的条件,同时还要充分认识到大国效应的两面性。具体到食糖进口管理政策上,可以通过制定一个合理的食糖进口规模和所允许的食糖对外依存度水平,最大限度地利用国际食糖市场和国际食糖产业资源。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the proportion of China's sugar import to the world sugar import scale has been increasing, so the import trade of sugar may have a big country effect. In view of this, the VAR model is used to test and analyze the sugar import volume. In this study, the research methods, models, variables and the smoothness of the data are introduced and analyzed, and the stationary VAR model is constructed. Then, the impulse response analysis and variance decomposition are used. The study found that there is no big country effect in China's sugar import trade at present. The study also found that in the short term or in the long term, the impact of the surge in sugar imports on the domestic sugar prices is very large.) in the short term, the price difference between domestic and foreign sugar is very large. Is one of the main reasons for the surge in China's sugar imports in the short term. In the long run, China's sugar imports are mainly to make up the gap between domestic sugar production and demand.) in the long run, as the international price of sugar rises, It will restrain China's sugar import to some extent improve China's sugar trade conditions and reverse the current surge in sugar imports. Finally, the paper puts forward some relevant policy suggestions, and points out that we should not only recognize the conditions under which the big country effect occurs in international trade, but also fully realize the dual character of the great power effect at the same time. In terms of sugar import management policy, we can make maximum use of the international sugar market and the international sugar industry resources by formulating a reasonable scale of sugar import and the permitted level of sugar dependence on the outside.
【作者单位】：中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所;
【基金】：中国农业科学院科技创新工程(ASTIP-IAED-2015-06) 农业部2016年农业农村资源监测项目
【分类号】：F426.82;F752.61

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