制造业并购目标公司的特征识别与预测分析

发布时间：2018-06-12 02:07

本文选题：制造业 + 并购目标　；参考：《合肥工业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：2015年中国迈入经济发展的新常态,中国制造业也在“工业4.0”的环境下提出了“中国制造2025”制造强国战略的行动纲领,积极应对中国经济发展新常态。制造强国的关键在于加快产业转型升级,并购可将不同企业间的资源进行重新整合和优化配置,通过资源结合、优势互补、核心竞争力融合推动产业结构调整和升级。只有大部分制造业企业都能保持持续创新和持续发展,中国制造才能掌握核心制造技术,具有国际竞争力。因此,对于技术密集型、知识密集型的制造业而言,核心竞争力源于企业的持续创新能力和持续发展能力。本文选择在2014-2015年期间被并购的制造业目标公司作为研究对象,选取44家目标公司作为样本组,44家非目标公司作为对照组,选择能够代表目标公司管理效率、增长-资源平衡状况、财务杠杆、公司规模、公司价值、股权结构以及持续创新和发展能力等7个方面特征的变量44个,并通过显著性检验识别出目标公司具有规模小、盈利能力差、增长能力低、股权较集中、股权流动性强、持续创新和发展能力弱等特征,进而通过因子分析法和Logistic多元回归方法建立模型对目标公司被并购的可能性进行预测,模型回代检验的综合准确率达到72.7%,对未来数据的预测综合准确率为73.8%,表明利用该模型对制造业并购目标公司进行预测是较可行的。
[Abstract]:In 2015, China entered the new normal of economic development, and the Chinese manufacturing industry also put forward the action program of "made in China 2025" manufacturing power strategy under the environment of "Industry 4.0", and actively responded to the new normal of China's economic development. The key of manufacturing power lies in speeding up the industrial transformation and upgrading. M & A can reintegrate and optimize the resources among different enterprises, and promote the adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure through the combination of resources, complementation of advantages and integration of core competitiveness. Only if most manufacturing enterprises can maintain continuous innovation and sustainable development, can Chinese manufacturers master core manufacturing technology and have international competitiveness. Therefore, for the technology-intensive and knowledge-intensive manufacturing industry, the core competitiveness originates from the continuous innovation ability and sustainable development ability of the enterprise. In this paper, manufacturing target companies acquired in 2014-2015 are selected as research objects, 44 target companies as sample group, 44 non-target companies as control group, and management efficiency can be represented by target companies. There are 44 variables of growth-resource balance, financial leverage, company size, company value, equity structure, continuous innovation and development ability. With the characteristics of poor profitability, low growth ability, concentrated equity, strong equity liquidity, continuous innovation and weak development ability, this paper establishes a model to predict the possibility of M & A of the target company through factor analysis and logistic multivariate regression method. The comprehensive accuracy of model back test is 72.7%, and that of future data is 73.8%, which indicates that it is feasible to use this model to predict the target company of manufacturing M & A.
【学位授予单位】：合肥工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F271;F425

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