江西省特高压发展战略研究

发布时间：2018-06-18 17:37

本文选题：江西 + 能源　；参考：《江西财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：江西省是典型的一次能源匮乏省份,随着经济社会的不断发展,未来能源的需求将愈加旺盛,受限于能源资源禀赋特点,能源供需矛盾将逐步显现。今后一段时期,在尽可能发掘自身潜能的同时,接受区外来电成为提高江西中长期能源供应安全的必然选择,意味着迫切需要明确特高压发展的战略,明确“外电入赣”通道建设的时序及规模,这既是保障全省能源供应安全的现实需要,也是助推江西发展升级绿色崛起的战略要求。本文主要通过收集现有能源发展基础数据,采用SWOT、PEST战略分析方法对江西发展特高压所处内外部环境进行分析,结合全国能源供应战略及特高压发展格局,全面阐述江西能源供应现状及未来电力供需形势,分析江西发展特高压面临的机遇及挑战,从最大化江西能源发展优势的角度出发,提出江西特高压发展的发展方向,从而确定特高压入赣的总体战略。最后,基于可能区外来电的技术、电价等因素进行比较分析,从而得出特高压入赣的建议方案。本文共分为七个部分。第一部分是绪论,主要阐述论文的研究背景及意义,并对国内外特高压的发展现状进行综述。第二部分主要对发展战略研究的有关理论方法进行简述。第三部分对江西省发展特高压的外部环境进行分析,先从所处的外部宏观环境进行综合分析,再结合国内特高压发展的总体格局,提出江西省发展特高压面临的机遇和挑战。第四部分对江西省发展特高压的内部条件进行分析,以本省资源禀赋情况及电源、电网发展情况为基础,结合能源供需形势对能源供应的现状进行分析,并结合历史数据对未来负荷水平进行合理预测,最后得出江西电力空间的分析结论。第五部分对江西省特高压发展战略选择进行深入分析,根据受电时机、受电规模、送电特性、落地电价、电力落点等因素确定特高压入赣总体战略定位,并结合国内能源流方向、区外来电方向、区外来电电价等因素确定特高压入赣的最终方案。第六部分提出江西省实施特高压发展战略的有关建议。第七部分是论文的结论。研究表明,我国能源资源与电力负荷呈现逆向分布的特点,决定着特高压输电是优化能源资源配置的重要途径,江西省特高压的发展既面临着政策和技术等机遇,也面临着选点和时机等挑战。江西省能源资源禀赋先天不足,电源供应长期以煤电为主,电网结构不够坚强,能源自给率持续走低,随着江西省能源负荷水平的不断走高,江西省能源缺口将进一步扩大。根据平衡计算原则,在中负荷水平方案下,全省2020年电力空间为600万千瓦,2025年电力空间约1650万千瓦,2030年达到3000万千瓦。以中负荷水平为基础研究水平,结合受电时机、受电规模、送电特性、落地电价、电力落点等特点,特高压入赣时机以2020年以后为优,规模不宜超过800万千瓦。根据全国能源流方向及区外电力有关情况,特高压入赣电力选择以白鹤滩水电为最优。要实施好特高压发展战略,江西省要做好以下几点,一是加强对接,强化规划引领作用;二是夯实基础,积极创造受电条件;三是作好宣传,合理引导舆论方向。
[Abstract]:Jiangxi province is a typical energy shortage province. With the continuous development of economy and society, the demand for energy will be more and more vigorous in the future, limited to the characteristics of energy resource endowment. The contradiction of energy supply and demand will gradually appear. In the future, while exploring its potential as far as possible, the acceptance of foreign power in the area becomes to improve the supply of medium and long term energy supply in Jiangxi. The inevitable choice of safety means an urgent need to clear the strategy of the development of UHV and clear the time sequence and scale of the construction of the "power to the Jiangxi" channel, which is not only a practical need to guarantee the energy supply of the province, but also a strategic requirement to boost the green rise of Jiangxi's development and upgrade. This article mainly collects the basic data of the existing energy development. The SWOT and PEST strategic analysis methods are used to analyze the internal and external environment of Jiangxi's development of UHV. Combined with the national energy supply strategy and the UHV development pattern, the current energy supply situation in Jiangxi and the future power supply and demand situation are fully expounded. The opportunities and challenges facing Jiangxi's development of UHV are analyzed, and the advantages of Jiangxi energy development will be maximized. From the point of view, the development direction of Jiangxi UHV development is put forward, thus the overall strategy of UHV into Jiangxi is determined. Finally, based on the comparative analysis of the technology and electricity price of foreign electricity in the possible area, the proposal of the UHV into Jiangxi is obtained. This paper is divided into seven parts. The first part is the introduction, which mainly expounds the research of the paper. The background and significance, and a summary of the development status of UHV at home and abroad. The second part mainly describes the theories and methods of the development strategy research. The third part analyses the external environment of the development of the UHV in Jiangxi province. First, the comprehensive analysis is carried out from the external macro environment, and then the overall development of the high voltage in China is combined with the overall development of the domestic high voltage. The fourth part analyses the internal conditions of the development of the UHV in Jiangxi Province in the fourth part, based on the resources endowment and power supply, the development of the power grid, and analyzes the current situation of energy supply in combination with the situation of energy supply and demand, and combines the historical data to the future load level. The fifth part analyses the strategic choice of the UHV development in Jiangxi province. The fifth part makes an in-depth analysis of the strategic choice of the UHV development in Jiangxi Province, and determines the overall strategic positioning of the UHV into Jiangxi in accordance with the time of the electricity receiving, the scale of the electricity, the power supply, the land price, the power drop and so on, and combines the direction of the domestic energy flow and the foreign power. In the sixth part, the sixth part puts forward some suggestions on the implementation of the UHV development strategy. The seventh part is the conclusion of the paper. The study shows that the energy resources and the power load in our country are in reverse distribution, and the UHV transmission is determined to optimize the allocation of energy resources. The important way is that the development of UHP in Jiangxi is not only facing the opportunities of policy and technology, but also facing the challenge of selection and opportunity. The energy resources endowment in Jiangxi province is not enough, the power supply is mainly coal and electricity, the structure of the power grid is not strong enough, the energy self supply rate continues to go down, and the energy load level of Jiangxi province continues to go higher, Jiangxi The energy gap in the province will be further expanded. Under the balance calculation principle, the power space in 2020 is 6 million kW in the province, the power space is about 16 million 500 thousand KW in 2025 and 30 million kilowatts in 2030. The base research level is based on the medium load level, with the power time, the power supply scale, the power supply, the electricity price and the power fall. According to the national energy flow direction and the electric power related to and out of the region, Jiangxi province should do well the following points in Jiangxi province. One is to strengthen the docking and strengthen the planning guidance. The two is to consolidate the foundation and create the conditions for receiving electricity positively; three, we should make good publicity and guide the direction of public opinion rationally.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.61;TM723

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