“三北”地区风电场的价值评估研究

发布时间：2018-06-20 04:33

本文选题：价值评估 + 风电场　；参考：《华北电力大学(北京)》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,在国家鼓励和支持新能源发展相关政策的引导下,我国已成为全球新能源规模最大、发展最快的国家,风电并网容量近10年增长了100倍。但另一方面,在经济增速放缓和用电市场疲软的形势下,三北地区弃风现象日益严重,不利于风电产业健康发展和正确引导风电场的投资行为。与传统能源相比,在评估风电场价值时,往往忽略风电能源的环境和社会效益,其价值就会被低估。同时,影响风电场价值的评估因素未来也存在着很大的不确定性。因此,科学、合理的评估风电场的整体价值就显得尤为重要。本文基于实物期权理论与传统价值评估理论,对风电场进行价值评估研究。首先,本文针对我国三北风电场的特点,深入开展现状调研,从风能资源、风电技术、制造成本、政策环境、弃风限电等方面调研了国内风电发展情况,揭示风电场价值研究的必要性,为风电场价值评估奠定基础。其次,分析了传统价值评估方法在评估风电场价值中的局限性,并开展了实物期权模型用于风电场价值评估的可行性分析,充分考虑了风力发电的潜在价值,将实物期权理论应用到风电场价值评估领域。使用PEST分析法对影响风电场价值的外在因素归类分析,并从年利用小时数、风电上网电价以及可再生能源财政补贴等方面分析风电场的实际经济效益及逐年净现金流量;再次,确定了影响风电场的价值评估关键因素,进行参数设计,结合实物期权理论推导出风电场Black-Scholes期权定价模型,并在该模型的基础上改良,引入了二叉树定价模型,将这两个模型所计算期权价值加权作为风电场投资项目的最终期权价值,并结合贴现现金流法量化风电场静态价值,从而实现风电场价值的全面评估。最后,以辽宁昌图大苇子风电场为例开展计算验证及关键影响因素的敏感性分析。应用已建立价值评估模型对风电场开展实例研究,验证本文对风电场价值评估方法和模型的正确性,为风电行业投资决策提供量化技术支撑。本论文的研究成果,能够为风电场运营收益的计算、预测和评价提供理论基础。文中所构建的模型能为风电行业投资决策提供量化技术支撑,为政府和企业对风电场的投资提供一定的指导。
[Abstract]:In recent years, under the guidance of the national policies to encourage and support the development of new energy, China has become the largest and fastest-growing country in the world with the wind power grid capacity increasing 100 times in the past 10 years. On the other hand, in the situation of slow economic growth and weak electricity market, the phenomenon of abandoning wind in Sanbei area is becoming more and more serious, which is not conducive to the healthy development of wind power industry and the correct guide of investment behavior of wind farm. Compared with traditional energy, the value of wind farm is underestimated if the environmental and social benefits of wind power are neglected. At the same time, there is also a lot of uncertainty about the evaluation factors that affect the value of wind farm in the future. Therefore, scientific and reasonable evaluation of the overall value of wind farms is particularly important. Based on the real option theory and the traditional valuation theory, this paper studies the value evaluation of wind farm. First of all, according to the characteristics of Sanbei wind farm in China, this paper carries out in-depth research on the current situation, and investigates the development of domestic wind power from wind energy resources, wind power technology, manufacturing costs, policy environment, abandonment of wind power and limited electricity, and so on. This paper reveals the necessity of wind farm value research and lays a foundation for wind farm value evaluation. Secondly, the limitations of traditional valuation methods in wind farm evaluation are analyzed, and the feasibility analysis of using real option model to evaluate wind farm value is carried out, which fully considers the potential value of wind power generation. The real option theory is applied to the field of wind farm value evaluation. The paper classifies and analyzes the external factors that affect the value of wind farm by pest analysis, and analyzes the actual economic benefits and annual net cash flow of wind farm from the aspects of the number of hours used each year, the electricity price of wind power and the financial subsidy of renewable energy. The key factors affecting the value evaluation of wind farm are determined, the parameter design is carried out, and the Black-Scholes option pricing model of wind farm is derived by combining the real option theory. On the basis of this model, the binomial tree pricing model is introduced. The weighted value of options calculated by these two models is used as the final option value of wind farm investment project, and the static value of wind farm is quantified by discounted cash flow method, so as to realize the comprehensive evaluation of wind farm value. Finally, a case study of Daweizi wind farm in Changtu, Liaoning Province, was carried out to verify the results and to analyze the sensitivity of the key factors. A case study on wind farm is carried out by using the established value assessment model, which verifies the correctness of the method and model of wind farm value evaluation, and provides the quantitative technical support for investment decision of wind power industry. The research results of this paper can provide theoretical basis for calculation, prediction and evaluation of wind farm operating income. The model can provide quantitative technical support for investment decision of wind power industry and provide some guidance for government and enterprises to invest in wind farm.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.61

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