全球制造业重心转移的环境效应分析

发布时间：2018-07-09 12:02

本文选题：全球制造业 + 转移　；参考：《世界经济研究》2017年04期

【摘要】：过去十余年间全球制造业重心从发达国家向发展中国家的转移在一定程度上加速了温室气体排放量的增长。假设1995~2009年制造业重心未从发达国家转移至中国,在满足同等量最终需求的前提下,全球生产过程产生的温室气体排放量增幅将显著下降。其中,CO2排放量增幅将从67亿吨降至41亿吨;CH4排放量增幅将从3.4亿吨降至2.7亿吨;N2O排放量增幅将从1557万吨降至1156万吨。通过模拟测算制造业从中国进一步转移至南亚和非洲等欠发达地区对温室气体排放的影响可知,该转移将使得全球温室气体排放进一步增加,年度增排CO2约8.8亿吨,CH4约450万吨,N2O约21万吨。这是由于与发达国家相比,中国、南亚和非洲等发展中国家普遍有较低的能源效率和清洁能源使用比率。而在现行联合国气候变化框架的生产者责任制度下,这部分额外的温室气体减排责任均需由发展中国家承担。鉴于制造业重心的转移多由跨国公司主导,且相关经济利益均由发达国家获取,因此发达国家应该更多承担这部分额外排放的减排责任,通过技术转移、扩大在发展中国家的低碳技术研发和应用投资等手段,使得从事制造业生产特别是低端制造业生产的发展中国家能够应用更高能效、更低碳的生产技术,以减缓温室气体排放增速,控制气候变暖效应,实现全球可持续发展。
[Abstract]:The shift of global manufacturing center from developed countries to developing countries has accelerated the growth of greenhouse gas emissions to a certain extent over the past decade. It is assumed that the center of gravity of the manufacturing industry in 1995~2009 is not transferred from developed countries to China, and the greenhouse gas emissions generated by the global production process under the premise of meeting the same demand for the same amount. The growth will decline significantly. The growth of CO2 emissions will drop from 67 billion tons to 41 million tons; the growth of CH4 emissions will fall from 3.4 billion tons to 2.7 billion tons; the increase in N2O emissions will fall from 15 million 570 thousand tons to 11 million 560 thousand tons. The transfer will further increase global greenhouse gas emissions, increase the annual emission of CO2 by about 8.8 million tons, CH4 about 4 million 500 thousand tons, and N2O about 210 thousand tons. This is due to low energy efficiency and clean energy use ratio in developing countries, such as China, South Asia and Africa, compared with developed countries, and production in the current United Nations climate change framework. Under the system of person responsibility, this part of the additional responsibility for reducing greenhouse gas emissions should be undertaken by the developing countries. Since the shift of the center of gravity of the manufacturing industry is dominated by multinational corporations, and the related economic benefits are obtained by the developed countries, the developed countries should take more responsibility for this part of the emission reduction, and expand the development through technology transfer. The developing countries engaged in manufacturing production, especially low end manufacturing, can apply higher energy efficiency, lower carbon production technology, slow down the growth of greenhouse gas emissions, control the warming effect, and realize the global sustainable development.
【作者单位】：首都经济贸易大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金委面上项目(项目编号:71473246) 北京市自然科学基金委面上项目(项目编号:9172006)资助
【分类号】：F414

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