基于改进剩余收益法的新能源企业价值评估研究

发布时间：2018-07-11 18:56

本文选题：企业价值评估 + 剩余收益　；参考：《西安建筑科技大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着传统能源的日益短缺、环境污染问题的日益严重,新能源因为具有清洁、无污染的特质,已然成为世界能源产业的发展方向。国际金融危机的冲击,加之全球经济持续环保化、低碳化、可持续发展化理念的不断深化,使得对新能源行业的大力发展和支持已经成为了全球共识。新能源行业目前作为我国重点培育和发展的行业,政府的政策扶持与资金投入为其大规模的开发与应用提供了良好的产业基础和资源保障。在此背景下,有关新能源企业的投融资活动相继开展,价值的合理测算是投融资活动有效进行的基本前提,在我国当前的市场经济环境下,如何合理测算新能源企业价值,从而为其相关投融资活动的有序开展提供合理的决策依据有着十分重要的意义。本文首先在梳理近年国内外相关研究文献的基础之上,介绍了企业价值评估体系、剩余收益理论以及新能源企业的相关概念,通过对新能源企业估值现状及问题进行分析以及总结,明晰了新能源企业价值评估研究的理论意义以及实践意义。其次,从企业内在价值创造的视角出发,以剩余收益估值模型作为新能源企业价值评估模型构建的基础,在明确预测期内引入改进后的杜邦财务分析体系来测算企业的剩余收益,同时结合LDNS国债利率动态期限结构测算折现率这一参数,使得折现率的确定更加符合市场的动态变化。再次,借鉴了包含风险因子的三阶段剩余收益模型,将对无穷项多项式求和的企业价值测算方式转换成为了与明确预测期末企业账面价值相关的测算方式,加强了明确预测期后企业价值测算的准确性。最后,运用具体企业实例进行分析,说明改进后的剩余收益估值模型在实际应用中如何应用,并对评估结果进行客观分析和说明。本文的创新点主要体现在以下两点:(1)从新能源企业内在价值创造的视角出发,将引入改进杜邦财务分析体系的剩余收益模型与包含风险因子的三阶段剩余收益模型相结合,构建出一套适用于新能源企业价值评估的模型;(2)运用LDNS国债利率动态期限结构测算明确预测期内折现率这一参数,从而使得折现率的确定更加贴合新能源行业市场的动态变化。
[Abstract]:With the shortage of traditional energy and the increasingly serious environmental pollution, new energy has become the development direction of the world energy industry because of its clean and pollution-free characteristics. The impact of the international financial crisis, coupled with the continuous environmental protection of the global economy, low-carbon, sustainable development of the concept of continuous deepening, making the development and support of the new energy industry has become a global consensus. The new energy industry is the key industry in China at present. The government policy support and capital investment provide a good industrial foundation and resource guarantee for the large-scale development and application of the new energy industry. Under this background, the investment and financing activities of the new energy enterprises have been carried out one after another, and the reasonable calculation of the value is the basic prerequisite for the effective implementation of the investment and financing activities. In the current market economy environment of our country, how to reasonably calculate the value of the new energy enterprises, Therefore, it is of great significance to provide reasonable decision-making basis for the orderly development of relevant investment and financing activities. This paper firstly introduces the enterprise value evaluation system, the residual income theory and the related concepts of new energy enterprises, based on the review of domestic and foreign related research literature in recent years. By analyzing and summarizing the current situation and problems of valuation of new energy enterprises, this paper clarifies the theoretical and practical significance of the research on the valuation of new energy enterprises. Secondly, from the perspective of enterprise intrinsic value creation, the residual income valuation model is used as the foundation of new energy enterprise value evaluation model. An improved DuPont financial analysis system is introduced to calculate the residual income of enterprises in a definite forecasting period. At the same time, combining with the dynamic term structure of LDNS government bond interest rate to calculate the discount rate, the determination of discount rate is more in line with the dynamic changes of the market. Thirdly, using the three-stage residual income model including risk factors for reference, the calculation method of enterprise value based on the sum of infinite polynomials is transformed into one related to the explicit prediction of enterprise book value at the end of the period. The accuracy of enterprise value measurement after a clear forecast period has been strengthened. Finally, an example is used to illustrate how the improved residual income valuation model is applied in practical application, and the evaluation results are analyzed and explained objectively. The innovations of this paper are as follows: (1) from the perspective of value creation of new energy enterprises, the paper combines the residual income model with the three-stage residual income model, which includes the risk factors, to introduce the improved DuPont financial analysis system. A model for evaluating the value of new energy enterprises is established. (2) using the dynamic term structure of LDNS government bonds to calculate the discount rate in the forecast period, the discount rate can be determined more closely to the dynamic changes of the new energy industry market.
【学位授予单位】：西安建筑科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F406.7;F426.61

【参考文献】