中国石油天然气集团财务风险的管理与评估

发布时间：2018-07-14 22:09

【摘要】：近些年来,市场竞争日益激烈,财务风险也越来越复杂,中国因财务危机而被处理的上市公司也越来越多。财务危机的发生,不仅防碍了企业的生存和发展,同时也牵连着债权人、投资者、甚至社会的利益。财务危机是一个渐进的过程,是能够避免的,上市公司管理层应有效地认识财务风险,因此对上市公司的财务风险进行评估便显得尤为重要。然而,现存的财务风险评估的工具和手段仍然处于初级阶段,评估体系一般都以会计报表的财务指标为依据,因而不能完全达到财务风险评估的效果和效率。基于此,本文以完善财务风险评估体系为出发点,将Va R融入到传统的财务风险评估体系中。首先,文章叙述了财务风险以及财务风险管理、Va R、分位数回归模型的相关理论,比较分析国内外现存的各种评估体系,基于此,提出自己的观点,以及本文所选择的方法。其次,本文以中石油集团为研究对象,阐述了该公司在财务风险管理上存在的问题,提出了相应的解决对策。分析了中石油近年来的财务状况,选取了十个有代表性的财务指标,分别从发展能力,偿债能力,经营能力和盈利能力四个方面去选。接着,本文又根据该公司2015年的收益率计算出了Va R的值。对VaR值的实际意义作了阐述。接着,对融入VaR后财务风险评估指标体系进行因子分析,得出该公司财务风险的综合得分。综合得分可以完全反映上市公司的财务风险情况,若综合得分越大,则该公司的财务状况就越好。接下来采用了分位数回归分析的方法,从中可以看出各个财务指标与财务风险的相关性以及对公司财务风险影响作用的大小程度。最后,文章又分析了企业的性质与制度环境对公司财务风险的影响。融入VaR的上市公司财务风险评估体系可以更全面、精准的评估上市公司财务风险,对以后财务风险评估指标的选取有一定的借鉴作用。同时,此评估体系也可为企业经营管理者规避风险、投资者投资公司提供一个较为简单、行之有效的决策依据。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the market competition is increasingly fierce, the financial risk is becoming more and more complex, and more listed companies have been dealt with because of the financial crisis in China. The occurrence of financial crisis not only hinders the survival and development of enterprises, but also affects the interests of creditors, investors and even society. Financial crisis is a gradual process and can be avoided. The management of listed companies should understand the financial risk effectively, so it is very important to evaluate the financial risk of listed companies. However, the existing tools and means of financial risk assessment are still in the primary stage, the evaluation system is generally based on the financial indicators of the financial statements, so it can not completely achieve the effect and efficiency of financial risk assessment. Based on this, this paper takes the perfect financial risk assessment system as the starting point, integrates the VaR into the traditional financial risk assessment system. First of all, the paper describes the theory of financial risk and financial risk management Va R, quantile regression model, compares and analyzes all kinds of existing evaluation systems at home and abroad. Based on this, it puts forward its own viewpoint and the method chosen in this paper. Secondly, this paper takes PetroChina Group as the research object, expounds the problems existing in the financial risk management of CNPC, and puts forward the corresponding countermeasures. This paper analyzes the financial situation of PetroChina in recent years, and selects ten representative financial indexes, which are selected from four aspects, namely, development ability, solvency, management ability and profitability. Then, according to the company's 2015 rate of return, the value of Va R is calculated. The practical significance of VaR value is expounded. Then, factor analysis is carried out on the index system of financial risk assessment after VaR, and the comprehensive score of financial risk of the company is obtained. The comprehensive score can completely reflect the financial risk of the listed company, if the bigger the comprehensive score, the better the financial situation of the listed company. Then the quantile regression analysis method is used to show the correlation between each financial index and the financial risk and the extent of the influence on the financial risk of the company. Finally, the article analyzes the nature of the enterprise and the impact of institutional environment on corporate financial risk. The financial risk assessment system of listed companies which is integrated into VaR can be more comprehensive and accurate in assessing the financial risks of listed companies, which can be used as a reference for the selection of financial risk assessment indicators in the future. At the same time, the evaluation system can also provide a simple and effective decision basis for enterprise managers to avoid risk and investor investment companies.
【学位授予单位】：广州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F406.7;F426.22

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