扶持政策对新能源汽车产业发展的影响研究

发布时间：2018-07-23 12:40

【摘要】：政府对产业发展的干预渗透在经济发展的各个阶段,在当前经济转型的重要时期,政府仍继续扶持引导部分产业的发展。在经济新常态下,新能源汽车产业不仅作为创新驱动的重要来源,还涉及到社会对于绿色环保可持续发展的需求,但根据新能源汽车产业发展的实际状况和其在发展过程中所遇到的难题,若只依赖市场机制,新能源汽车产业的发展会受到技术、资金等多方面因素的制约从而无法突破产业发展初期困境。因此新能源汽车产业发展初期需要通过政府补贴、鼓励创新等政策的扶持,完善产业链,吸引社会资本,从而推动新能源汽车产业规模的扩大和技术进步。我国新能源汽车产业政策起步于2009年,到2013年9月才正式从产业战略规划层面转向税收优惠政策、基础设施建设等实际操作层面,从试点转向个人及公共服务领域的全面推广。因此扶持政策对新能源汽车产业的影响这一研究开展的时间并不长,现有文献大多针对政策梳理、产业链发展、技术研究等方面,缺乏针对扶持政策影响及有效性的定量研究。基于此本文的研究目的有两个方面:一是从理论角度概况国家和地方扶持政策并对未来政策趋向做合理展望,结合扶持政策作用机制分析了扶持政策所带来的产量效应、福利效应和环境效应。二是在实证方面用事件研究法判断扶持政策对产业产生了怎样的影响,再用固定效应模型检验扶持政策对新能源汽车产业的有效性。针对实证结果与理论结果进行对比,发现现有政策下实施效果的偏差并予以合理解释,为下一步政策的制定提供一点建议。本文从理论角度分析,扶持政策对产量效应、环境效应为正,若福利效应属于卡尔多改进,则政策是可以实施的。从实证角度分析发现扶持政策的实施短期内对产业有显著正向效应,但累积超常收益率无法在短期内转负为正。长期持有超常收益率正负波动,但第二年涨幅大于第一年,主要原因可能在于新能源汽车产业的根基不深,基础设施建设等仍需完善,产业链上下游产业也处于起步阶段。对市场细分后实证检验发现乘用车行业对投资者的吸引更大。综合整体扶持政策效应图来看发现市场效应呈V型,政策的扶持作用有限,无法在短期内改变整个行业环境。通过面板数据固定效应模型发现固定资产投入、劳动力投入以及政策扶持等对新能源汽车企业具有正向作用,而研发投入的作用不显著。用存货周转率做深一步分析得推广补贴政策的不断出台使存货周转率止跌并迅速上扬,流转速度明显优于传统企业。
[Abstract]:Government intervention in industrial development permeates all stages of economic development. In the important period of economic transformation, the government continues to support and guide the development of some industries. Under the new normal state of economy, the new energy automobile industry is not only an important source of innovation driving, but also the demand of the society for the sustainable development of green environment. However, according to the actual situation of the development of the new energy automobile industry and the difficulties encountered in the process of its development, if we only rely on the market mechanism, the development of the new energy automobile industry will be subjected to technology. The restriction of many factors, such as capital, can not break through the predicament of industrial development in the early stage. Therefore, in the early stage of the development of new energy automobile industry, government subsidies should be adopted to encourage innovation and other policies to support, perfect the industrial chain and attract social capital, so as to promote the expansion of the scale of new energy automobile industry and the progress of technology. China's new energy automobile industry policy started in 2009, until September 2013, from the industrial strategic planning level to tax concessions, infrastructure construction and other practical operational aspects, from the pilot to individual and public service field of comprehensive promotion. Therefore, the research on the impact of support policies on the new energy automobile industry is not carried out for a long time. Most of the existing literatures focus on the aspects of policy combing, industrial chain development, technology research and so on, and lack of quantitative research on the impact and effectiveness of support policies. Based on this, there are two aspects of the research: first, from the theoretical point of view of national and local support policies and to make a reasonable outlook for future policy trends, combined with the role of support policies mechanism to analyze the yield effect of support policies. Welfare effect and environmental effect. The second is to use the event research method to judge the influence of the support policy on the industry, and then use the fixed effect model to test the effectiveness of the support policy to the new energy automobile industry. By comparing the empirical results with the theoretical results, the author finds out the deviation of the implementation effect under the existing policies and gives a reasonable explanation, which provides some suggestions for the formulation of the next policy. This paper theoretically analyses that the support policy has positive effect on yield and environment, and that if the welfare effect belongs to Caldor improvement, then the policy can be implemented. From the empirical point of view, it is found that the implementation of the support policy has a significant positive effect on the industry in the short term, but the cumulative abnormal rate of return cannot be turned negative to positive in the short term. For a long time, the positive or negative volatility of abnormal yield, but the increase in the second year is more than the first year, the main reason may be that the foundation of the new energy automobile industry is not deep, the infrastructure construction still needs to be improved, and the upstream and downstream industries of the industrial chain are also in the initial stage. After the market segmentation empirical test found that the passenger car industry is more attractive to investors. It is found that the market effect is V-shaped and the support function of the policy is limited, which can not change the whole industry environment in the short term. Through the panel data fixed effect model, it is found that fixed assets input, labor input and policy support have a positive effect on new energy automobile enterprises, but R & D investment has no significant effect. With the further analysis of inventory turnover, it is found that the continuous introduction of subsidy policy makes inventory turnover stop falling and rise rapidly, and the circulation speed is obviously better than that of traditional enterprises.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.471

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