基于能源经济理论和“多中心治理”理论的德国弃煤政策分析

发布时间：2018-08-07 09:30

【摘要】：德国的煤炭资源十分丰富,是世界主要煤炭生产和消费国家之一,在历史上,煤炭产业对德国"黄金年代"的经济奇迹做出巨大贡献。2011年日本福岛核事件之后,德国政府决定2022年之前全面关停所有境内核电站,煤电成为保证德国电力稳定供应的重要保障,2014年德国发电量中百分之四十为煤电。值此之际,德国却在2015年提出逐步退出煤炭使用的计划,无论在德国国内或是在国际上均引起热议。本文研究的课题是德国的弃煤政策,研究重点集中在三个层面:一是从经济、政治和技术这三个角度考察弃煤政策提出的背景,分析影响德国退煤决定的因素。二是探究德国弃煤政策下的可行措施及其对德国经济的影响。三是明确德国社会各界对该项能源政策的态度,并在上述研究的基础上,对德国的煤炭政策作出总体评价。鉴于政策研究的跨学科性,本文将研究视角限定在经济学范畴,具体来说,综合了能源经济学,微观经济学和政治经济学分析。在研究方法上,本文主要采用文献分析法和比较分析法。本文从能源经济学理论出发,首先对德国煤炭市场的现状进行详尽分析,聚焦于德国褐煤和硬煤市场的供给结构、需求结构以及价格构成,在此基础上从经济,政治和技术三个角度探究德国弃煤政策的出台背景,主要包括化石能源的资源有限性、煤炭开采和使用的外部不经济性、煤电与德国气候目标的矛盾性以及二氧化碳捕集技术的失败等因素。德国弃煤政策下可行措施的分析,立足于美国经济学家埃莉诺·奥斯特罗姆的"多中心治理"理论,从三个层面开展,一是欧洲层面,在这一层面上碳排放交易体制发挥着重要作用,二是国家层面,德国政府在欧洲碳排放交易框架下提出了各项补充措施,其中包括引入碳排放权的最低价格,引入气候保护税,立法规范,提高能源利用效率,扩建电网等措施,三是地方层面,重点措施是逐步停运德国褐煤矿区的燃煤发电厂。弃煤政策的实施对德国经济的影响主要体现在以下几个方面:第一,德国的碳排放量将大量减少,有利于实现德国制定的气候目标;第二,发电成本增加,能源企业负担加重;第三,电价上涨,家庭用户负担加重;鉴于德国硬煤产业的式微和褐煤产业中劳动力的年龄结构,弃煤政策对德国的整体就业不会产生很大影响。然而目前德国国内各界对该项政策的意见不一,笔者对其进行了总结,并阐述了自己的看法。作为一项能源政策,弃煤政策虽有利于实现德国三大能源目标中环保性这一目标,却是以牺牲另两项能源目标为代价,即能源的供应安全性和经济性。一方面,煤炭相较于石油、天然气以及可再生能源价格较为低廉,弃煤无疑会增加能源消费成本;另一方面,煤炭是德国本土最丰富的矿产资源,其他化石能源大部分依赖于从国外进口,而目前德国的可再生能源发展尚不成熟,难以填补弃煤引起的能源供给缺口,因而弃煤不利于德国的能源供应安全。由此笔者认为,弃煤政策并非德国应对环境和气候问题的最佳解决方案。以上对德国弃煤政策的探讨研究有助于全面深入了解该项能源政策,同时对于我国如何持续、健康地发展能源经济也有一定参考价值。
[Abstract]:German coal resources are very rich, it is one of the world's major coal production and consumption countries. In history, the coal industry made a great contribution to the economic miracle of the "golden age" in Germany. After the.2011 nuclear event in Japan, the German government decided to shut down all the domestic nuclear power stations before 2022, and coal electricity became a guarantee for the stability of the German power. The important guarantee for the fixed supply is that forty per cent of the German power generation in 2014 is coal electricity. On the occasion of this, Germany put forward a plan to step out of coal use gradually in 2015, both in Germany and in the world. The topic of this study is the German coal abandonment policy, focusing on three levels: one is from the economy, In the three angles of politics and technology, we examine the background of the coal abandoning policy and analyze the factors that affect the German coal withdrawal decision. Two is to explore the feasible measures under the German coal abandoning policy and its influence on the German economy. Three is to clarify the attitude of the German community to this energy policy, and on the basis of the above study, the coal policy of Germany In view of the interdisciplinary nature of the policy research, this paper defines the perspective of the study in the economic category, in particular, the integration of energy economics, microeconomics and political economic analysis. In the study method, the paper mainly adopts the method of literature analysis and comparative analysis. The present situation of the national coal market is analyzed in detail, focusing on the supply structure, demand structure and price composition of the German lignite and hard coal market, and on the basis of the three angles of economy, politics and technology, to explore the background of the German coal abandoning policy, mainly including the limited resources of fossil energy resources, the external non classics of coal mining and use. The analysis of the feasible measures under the German coal abandoning policy, based on the "multi center governance" theory of American economist Eleanor Ostrom, is carried out from three levels, one is the European level, and the carbon emission trading system at this level. It plays an important role, two is the national level, and the German government has put forward various supplementary measures under the framework of carbon emissions trading in Europe, including the lowest price of carbon emission, the introduction of climate protection tax, the legislative norms, the improvement of energy efficiency, the expansion of the grid and other measures. The three is the local level, the key measure is to stop the German browning step by step. Coal fired power plants in coal mining area. The effect of coal abandoning policy on the German economy is mainly reflected in the following aspects: first, the carbon emissions in Germany will be reduced greatly, which is conducive to the realization of the climate targets set by Germany; second, the cost of generating electricity is increased, the burden on energy enterprises is heavier; third, the price of electricity is rising, and the burden of family users is aggravated; Jian Yude The decline of the hard coal industry and the age structure of the labor force in the lignite industry, the policy of abandoning coal will not have a great impact on the overall employment of Germany. However, at present, all walks of life in Germany have different views on this policy. In Germany, the goal of environmental protection in the three major energy targets is to sacrifice another two energy targets, namely, the safety and economy of energy supply. On the one hand, coal is less expensive than oil, natural gas and renewable energy. Coal abandoning coal will undoubtedly increase the cost of energy consumption; on the other hand, coal is the most abundant in Germany. The rich mineral resources and other fossil fuels are largely dependent on imported from abroad, but the development of renewable energy in Germany is not yet mature, and it is difficult to fill the gap of energy supply caused by abandoning coal. Therefore, abandoning coal is not conducive to the safety of energy supply in Germany. Therefore, the author believes that the policy of abandoning coal is not the best for Germany to deal with environmental and climate problems. The solution. The above study of the German coal abandoning policy will help to understand the energy policy comprehensively and thoroughly, and also have some reference value for our country to continue and develop the energy economy in a healthy way.
【学位授予单位】：北京外国语大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F416.2

【相似文献】