新电改下电网公司客户流失风险预警与应对策略研究

发布时间：2018-08-31 18:41

【摘要】：随着电力体制改革不断深入,目前新电改政策相继颁布,电力企业之前的垄断局面逐渐被打破,新型电力市场逐步形成。新电改指出将售电侧放开,并引入新的市场竞争主体。新电改对于电网主要有两个方面的影响:优质客户流失的压力以及新加入的各个售电公司带来的竞争压力。处于政策允许的范围之中,许多相关公司纷纷加入电力市场领域。售电公司具备的核心竞争力对其在行业中的地位和影响力有至关重要的影响。本文基于新电改背景深入探讨电网公司可能面临的客户流失风险,首先,对于客户流失风险预警管理理论进行了阐述,明确了客户流失的定义及客户本身存在的生命周期理论,并引入风险管理理论,针对客户流失风险实施预警;其次,选择了某地区电网公司用电客户相关数据进行分析,对与客户用电密切相关的变量进行深入研究。选择合适的客户流失预警模型,根据实际搜集的相关数据利用逻辑回归建立模型;再次,利用数据对于构建的指标体系以及客户流失预警模型中进行了实证分析,给出实证分析结果,将预测结果与真实结果进行对比,并对实证分析结果进行了评估,从而证实了本文所建指标体系及模型具有合理性及科学性,对于预测客户流失具有一定的借鉴意义;最后,提出新电改背景下,电网公司面临客户流失可以采取的三种应对策略,包括针对大客户的服务策略、电网公司自身的内部管理策略及提高电网公司外部客户忠诚度的策略。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of the electric power system reform and the promulgation of the new power reform policy, the monopoly situation of the electric power enterprises has been broken gradually, and the new electricity market is gradually formed. The new power reform points to the opening of the power side and the introduction of new players in the market. The impact of the new power reform on the grid is twofold: the pressure on quality customers to drain and the competitive pressures of new power sales companies. To the extent permitted by policy, many related companies have joined the field of electricity market. The core competence of power sales companies has a crucial impact on their position and influence in the industry. Based on the background of new electricity reform, this paper deeply discusses the risk of customer churn that power grid companies may face. Firstly, the theory of early warning management of customer churn risk is expounded, and the definition of customer churn and the life cycle theory of customer itself are defined. And the introduction of risk management theory to implement early warning against the risk of customer loss; secondly, selected a regional power grid company power customer data analysis, closely related to customer power consumption variables in-depth study. Select the appropriate early warning model of customer churn, according to the actual collection of relevant data using logical regression to establish the model; thirdly, use the data to build the index system and customer churn warning model for empirical analysis. The results of empirical analysis are given, and the prediction results are compared with the real results, and the results of empirical analysis are evaluated, which proves that the index system and the model built in this paper are reasonable and scientific. It has certain reference significance for predicting customer churn. Finally, three kinds of coping strategies, including service strategy for large customers, are put forward for grid companies to face customer churn under the background of new electricity reform. The internal management strategy of grid company and the strategy of improving external customer loyalty of grid company.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.61;F274

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