京津冀协同发展下张家口电力负荷预测研究

发布时间：2018-10-07 19:07

【摘要】：随着经济社会的飞速发展,电力行业已成为国家能源领域的重大基础行业,并逐渐在国民经济的发展中扮演着愈发重要的地位。而电力负荷预测是电力系统稳定良好运行的重要保障,是电网规划建设和运行检修的重要前提,其预测结果的准确性将会对经济社会发展、电网布局和居民日常生活产生重要影响。当前,京津冀协同发展已被确定为国家战略,这将为京津冀地区注入新的发展动力,同时也对地区电力保障供应、负荷需求分析等方面提出了新的要求。张家口作为京津冀协同发展中的重要城市,不仅将与北京联合举办第24届奥林匹克冬季运动会,还是国内清洁能源消纳占比最高的城市之一,具有重要的研究意义。本文从京津冀三地经济社会发展和主要电力指标等因素入手,站在区域协同发展角度,分析京津冀地区经济社会发展对张家口电力负荷的影响,探索两者之间的内在联系,并给出合理的解释。结合张家口“十二五”期间负荷特性、电量构成及配电网规划建设情况,选择区域负荷预测法、产值单耗法、分产业电耗法、灰色预测等方法进行组合预测,确定高增长、中增长、低增长三种方案,对张家口市的负荷变化趋势进行初步预测和分析,并向电网规划运行部门提出建议。研究表明,京津冀三地发展差异较大,北京、天津各项指标位居全国前列。河北整体发展水平相对落后,以第二产业为主导行业,其工业用电比重与最大负荷利用小时呈现严格的正相关关系,这一趋势预计在未来一段时期不会发生重大改变。张家口市的用电结构呈现明显的工业化特点,第二产业用电比重高达68%。未来5年内,张家口市的全年用电量和最大负荷将双双增加,年均全社会用电量增长率在4.7%左右。同时,张家口市的用电结构也将发生较大调整,第一产业和居民用电量将保持平稳增长,所占比例基本保持稳定,第二产业用电量将持续增加,所占比例将下降10%左右,第三产业用电量占比将提高8%左右,用电量增长速度最快。本文同时建议加强城市群的电网负荷预测和网架规划工作,完善城市电网规划和数据统计系统,打造涵盖气象、经济、政策等多方面的跨区域负荷预测数据库,以提高负荷预测的精确性和适应性。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy and society, the electric power industry has become a major basic industry in the field of national energy, and gradually plays an increasingly important role in the development of the national economy. The power load forecasting is an important guarantee for the stable and good operation of the power system, and an important prerequisite for the planning, construction, operation and maintenance of the power network. The accuracy of the forecast results will be of great importance to the economic and social development. Power grid layout and daily life of residents have an important impact. At present, the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei has been determined as the national strategy, which will inject new development power into the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and also put forward new requirements for the power supply and load demand analysis in the area. Zhangjiakou, as an important city in the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, will not only jointly host the 24th Olympic Winter Games with Beijing, but also one of the cities with the highest consumption of clean energy in China. Starting with the economic and social development and main power indicators of the three places of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, this paper analyzes the influence of the economic and social development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region on the power load of Zhangjiakou from the angle of regional coordinated development, and explores the internal relationship between the two. A reasonable explanation is given. Combined with the load characteristics, electric quantity composition and distribution network planning and construction during the 12th Five-Year Plan period of Zhangjiakou, the regional load forecasting method, the output value unit consumption method, the sub-industry power consumption method, and the grey forecasting method are selected to predict the high growth rate. This paper makes a preliminary forecast and analysis on the load change trend of Zhangjiakou City and puts forward some suggestions to the power network planning and operation department. The research shows that there are great differences in the development of Beijing, Tianjin and Beijing, and the indexes of Beijing, Tianjin and Tianjin are among the top in the country. The overall development level of Hebei is relatively backward, with the secondary industry as the leading industry, the proportion of industrial electricity consumption and the hours of maximum load utilization show a strict positive correlation, and this trend is not expected to change significantly in the future. The electricity structure of Zhangjiakou city shows obvious industrialization characteristic, the proportion of electricity consumption of secondary industry is as high as 68. In the next five years, the annual electricity consumption and maximum load of Zhangjiakou City will both increase, and the average annual growth rate of electricity consumption of the whole society will be about 4.7 percent. At the same time, the electricity consumption structure of Zhangjiakou City will also be greatly readjusted. The power consumption of the primary industry and residents will maintain a steady growth, the proportion of electricity consumption will remain basically stable, and the electricity consumption of the secondary industry will continue to increase, and the proportion will decrease by about 10 percent. The proportion of electricity consumption in the tertiary industry will increase by about 8%, and electricity consumption will grow fastest. At the same time, this paper suggests to strengthen the work of grid load forecasting and grid planning in urban agglomeration, improve the urban power network planning and data statistics system, and build a cross-regional load forecasting database covering meteorological, economic, policy and other aspects. To improve the accuracy and adaptability of load forecasting.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.61

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