基于Themis异常值的Y企业财务风险研究
发布时间：2018-10-14 15:59
【摘要】：当今世界经济全球化趋势不断加速,资源在全世界范围内追求高效优化配置。多元化的大时代背景,对企业的经营管理也提出了更高的要求。在现代企业管理中,企业财务状况的管理始终处于管理的核心地位,贯穿企业生产经营的全过程,并且随着我国社会经济的转型和企业管理机制的不断升级与完善,财务管理在企业发展中的重要性不断提高。对于企业管理者来说,如何通过多种方式及时发现隐藏的财务风险,同时采取相应的措施化解财务风险,清理财务危机隐患就成了目前急需解决的问题。本文的研究目的就是从企业管理者的角度出发,通过分析Y企业财务报表,在充分挖掘报表潜在信息的基础上,探讨新的研究方法识别财务报表的真实性,提前对Y企业的财务风险进行揭示。本文的研究内容包括以下五个部分:第一部分,在对以往文献进行分析的基础上,结合定性和定量分析的研究方法,介绍了国内外对企业财务风险问题研究的现状。第二部分明确了财务风险的定义以及企业可能面临的财务风险的种类,对常用的企业财务风险分析方法进行了概述。第三部分,通过分析企业的短期偿债能力、长期偿债能力、营运能力和盈利能力,以及对上市企业的市场价值比率为代表的传统比率分析法来分析Y企业的财务状况。第四部分,指出了传统财务分析法的不足的同时,引入Themis异常值分析模型,再次对Y企业连续三期的财务状况进行分析研究,其中包括模型的指标体系的建立、模型的财务风险分析逻辑思路以及财务风险的等级评定,计算企业各个指标的单项得分,并得出Y企业的综合得分和评分等级。指出模型在发现Y企业报表粉饰迹象,探究Y企业资金运用效率,揭示Y企业财务风险成因,预测财务风险方面的意义。最后,针对Y企业的财务风险,本文在第五部分提出了相应的建议。本文运用新的财务风险研究方法,以关注资金运用效率为视角,通过构建11独特的财务指标对企业的财务状况进行分析,迅速发现企业存在的各种财务粉饰报表造假行为,揭示企业融资的效率较低,借款规模过大,产品结构单一,获利能力低下,管理费用和财务费用飙升等问题,最后结合Y企业的特点笔者建议Y企业通过改善成本体系,负债结构,优化产品结构提高获利等方式改善财务结构,降低财务风险,也从Y企业内部财务控制方面着手,对完善财务内控制度提供指导意见。
[Abstract]:Nowadays, the trend of economic globalization in the world is accelerating, and resources are being allocated efficiently and optimally all over the world. Diversification of the background of the era, the management of enterprises also put forward higher requirements. In modern enterprise management, the management of enterprise financial situation is always in the core position of management, runs through the whole process of enterprise production and management, and with the transformation of social economy and the continuous upgrading and perfection of enterprise management mechanism in our country, The importance of financial management in the development of enterprises continues to improve. For enterprise managers, how to find hidden financial risks in a variety of ways in time, at the same time take appropriate measures to resolve financial risks and clear up hidden financial crisis has become an urgent problem. The purpose of this paper is to explore the new research method to identify the authenticity of financial statements by analyzing the financial statements of Y enterprises from the point of view of enterprise managers, and on the basis of fully excavating the potential information of financial statements. The financial risk of Y enterprise is revealed in advance. The research content of this paper includes the following five parts: the first part, on the basis of the analysis of the previous literature, combined with the qualitative and quantitative research methods, introduced the domestic and foreign research on the financial risk of enterprises. The second part clarifies the definition of financial risk and the types of financial risk that enterprises may face, and summarizes the common methods of enterprise financial risk analysis. In the third part, the financial situation of Y enterprise is analyzed by analyzing the short-term solvency, long-term solvency, operating ability and profitability, as well as the traditional ratio analysis method, which represents the market value ratio of listed enterprises. The fourth part points out the deficiency of the traditional financial analysis method, at the same time, introduces the Themis abnormal value analysis model, analyzes and studies the financial situation of Y enterprise for three consecutive periods, including the establishment of the index system of the model. The logical train of thought of financial risk analysis and the evaluation of financial risk are used to calculate the single score of each index of the enterprise and to obtain the comprehensive score and rating grade of Y enterprise. The paper points out the significance of the model in finding the whitewash signs of Y enterprise, exploring the efficiency of fund utilization, revealing the causes of financial risk in Y enterprise and predicting the financial risk. Finally, in view of Y enterprise's financial risk, this article puts forward the corresponding suggestion in the fifth part. This paper uses the new financial risk research method to pay attention to the efficiency of the use of funds, through the construction of 11 unique financial indicators to analyze the financial situation of enterprises, quickly found the existence of various financial whitewash statements fraud behavior. This paper reveals some problems such as low efficiency of enterprise financing, excessive scale of borrowing, single product structure, low profitability, soaring management and financial expenses, etc. Finally, the author suggests that Y enterprise should improve its cost system in combination with the characteristics of Y enterprise. In order to improve the financial structure and reduce the financial risk, the debt structure, the optimization of the product structure and the profit are improved, and the guidance for perfecting the financial internal control system is provided from the aspects of the internal financial control of Y enterprise.
【学位授予单位】：湘潭大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.31;F406.7
本文编号：2270940
[Abstract]:Nowadays, the trend of economic globalization in the world is accelerating, and resources are being allocated efficiently and optimally all over the world. Diversification of the background of the era, the management of enterprises also put forward higher requirements. In modern enterprise management, the management of enterprise financial situation is always in the core position of management, runs through the whole process of enterprise production and management, and with the transformation of social economy and the continuous upgrading and perfection of enterprise management mechanism in our country, The importance of financial management in the development of enterprises continues to improve. For enterprise managers, how to find hidden financial risks in a variety of ways in time, at the same time take appropriate measures to resolve financial risks and clear up hidden financial crisis has become an urgent problem. The purpose of this paper is to explore the new research method to identify the authenticity of financial statements by analyzing the financial statements of Y enterprises from the point of view of enterprise managers, and on the basis of fully excavating the potential information of financial statements. The financial risk of Y enterprise is revealed in advance. The research content of this paper includes the following five parts: the first part, on the basis of the analysis of the previous literature, combined with the qualitative and quantitative research methods, introduced the domestic and foreign research on the financial risk of enterprises. The second part clarifies the definition of financial risk and the types of financial risk that enterprises may face, and summarizes the common methods of enterprise financial risk analysis. In the third part, the financial situation of Y enterprise is analyzed by analyzing the short-term solvency, long-term solvency, operating ability and profitability, as well as the traditional ratio analysis method, which represents the market value ratio of listed enterprises. The fourth part points out the deficiency of the traditional financial analysis method, at the same time, introduces the Themis abnormal value analysis model, analyzes and studies the financial situation of Y enterprise for three consecutive periods, including the establishment of the index system of the model. The logical train of thought of financial risk analysis and the evaluation of financial risk are used to calculate the single score of each index of the enterprise and to obtain the comprehensive score and rating grade of Y enterprise. The paper points out the significance of the model in finding the whitewash signs of Y enterprise, exploring the efficiency of fund utilization, revealing the causes of financial risk in Y enterprise and predicting the financial risk. Finally, in view of Y enterprise's financial risk, this article puts forward the corresponding suggestion in the fifth part. This paper uses the new financial risk research method to pay attention to the efficiency of the use of funds, through the construction of 11 unique financial indicators to analyze the financial situation of enterprises, quickly found the existence of various financial whitewash statements fraud behavior. This paper reveals some problems such as low efficiency of enterprise financing, excessive scale of borrowing, single product structure, low profitability, soaring management and financial expenses, etc. Finally, the author suggests that Y enterprise should improve its cost system in combination with the characteristics of Y enterprise. In order to improve the financial structure and reduce the financial risk, the debt structure, the optimization of the product structure and the profit are improved, and the guidance for perfecting the financial internal control system is provided from the aspects of the internal financial control of Y enterprise.
【学位授予单位】：湘潭大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.31;F406.7
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