不确定条件下能源替代问题研究

发布时间：2018-10-24 15:40

【摘要】：能源最优开采问题是可持续发展的重要议题之一,日益严峻的环境污染使得能源替代问题被广泛关注。能源市场中存在诸多不确定因素,本研究在假设可耗竭资源的储量及可再生资源的技术进步均具有不确定性的条件下探讨了可耗竭资源向可再生资源转换问题。首先讨论了资源税、储量不确定性、需求价格弹性、成本储量弹性对可耗竭资源最优开采路径的影响;其次分析了技术进步不确定性对可再生资源最优开采路径的影响;最后研究了最优转换时间问题。在求解模型的过程中,发现求得最优化模型的显式解不容易,转而采用数值模拟方法找到模型的数值解。结果显示最优的转换时间不但受到不确定性因素的影响,还受到能源需求、开采成本及资源税等相关参数的影响。
[Abstract]:The problem of energy optimal exploitation is one of the most important issues in sustainable development. The problem of energy substitution has been paid more and more attention due to the increasingly severe environmental pollution. There are many uncertain factors in the energy market. Under the assumption that the reserves of depleted resources and the technological progress of renewable resources are uncertain, the conversion of exhausted resources to renewable resources is discussed in this study. Firstly, the effects of resource tax, reserve uncertainty, demand price elasticity, cost reserve elasticity on the optimal exploitation path of exhausted resources are discussed, and the influence of technological progress uncertainty on the optimal exploitation path of renewable resources is analyzed. Finally, the problem of optimal conversion time is studied. In the process of solving the model, it is found that it is not easy to obtain the explicit solution of the optimization model. Instead, the numerical simulation method is used to find the numerical solution of the model. The results show that the optimal conversion time is affected not only by uncertain factors, but also by related parameters such as energy demand, exploitation cost and resource tax.
【作者单位】：中国矿业大学管理学院;华北科技学院理学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大资助项目“我国矿产资源跨期优化配置机制研究”(项目编号:11&ZD163) 国家社会科学基金一般项目“矿产资源跨期优化配置的政策工具研究”(项目编号:15BGL175)
【分类号】：F407.2

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