H公司对Z市中心城区燃气市场项目投资分析及对策研究

发布时间：2018-11-02 07:49

【摘要】：Z市位于陕西省南部,天然气等资源储量丰富,但目前开发力度不足,相关配套基础建设处于初期发展阶段。而H公司自2009年取得Z市除中心城区以外各县城市燃气特许经营权以来,在Z市各县域燃气投资项目上已经取得了长足的发展,用户数量和用气量的年平均增长率均达到50%以上,但由于投资区域城镇化率较低,城市规模小、人口总量少,工商业基础薄弱,居民消费水平较低等因素导致市场潜力有限,难以实现规模效益,导致企业营利能力较弱。而Z市中心城区城市规模、人口基数和密度均较大,工商业发达,居民消费水平较高,其市场潜力较周边县区具有显著优势,对中心城区市场的投资成为了H公司现阶段解决发展瓶颈问题的最有效途径,因此,有必要对Z市中心城区天然气投资项目进行研究并提出可行的对策和建议。论文分别从H公司的背景分析、Z市中心城区燃气市场投资项目的市场分析、估算分析、财务分析、风险分析等方面进行总体评估。研究结果表明:第一,从H公司的发展背景、组织结构、资产状况、市场状况等方面总结得出H公司作为主要投资者具有实力强、市场广、潜力大的优势;第二,市场分析发现目前Z市中心城区燃气市场具有较大的市场空白,项目建设能够完善Z市燃气市场,为Z市中心城区人民提供具有较高品贡和水准的生活体验,带动Z市经济以及当地产业链的发展;第三,整体估算结果得出该项目每年均能实现本利一次还清,较好地契合了投资资金的风险估算;第四,财务分析显示,总投资收益率为39.43%,资本金利润率为68.17%,财务净现值大于0,财务内部收益率是19.60%,动态投资回收期为9.27年,该项目具有较大的财务盈利优势,获利能力较强。各贷款期内利息备付率、偿债备付率、资产负债率均满足财务要求,项目的清偿能力较强,同时敏感性分析结果显示销售单价为综合敏感性因素,H公司应该将天然气价格的可能变动控制在预测范围内;第五,项目投资过程中可能会产生市场风险、财务风险、生产风险、宏观经济政策风险等,因此项目建设过程中应该积极管理风险,有效地控制风险,以满足项目安全性、收益性等要求。
[Abstract]:Z City is located in the south of Shaanxi Province, which is rich in natural gas and other resources, but its development is insufficient at present, and the related supporting infrastructure construction is in the initial stage of development. Since 2009, when H Company obtained the right to operate gas in every county except the central city of Z city, it has made great progress in gas investment projects in every county of Z city. The average annual growth rate of both the number of users and the amount of gas used is over 50%, but the market potential is limited due to the low urbanization rate in the investment regions, the small scale of cities, the small population, the weak industrial and commercial base, and the low level of consumption of the residents. Difficult to achieve economies of scale, resulting in weak profitability. The scale, population base and density of Z city center are large, the industry and commerce are developed, the consumption level of residents is high, and its market potential has significant advantages over the surrounding counties. Investment in the central city market has become the most effective way for H Company to solve the bottleneck problem of development at the present stage. Therefore, it is necessary to study the natural gas investment project in Z city center and put forward feasible countermeasures and suggestions. In this paper, the background analysis of H Company, the market analysis, estimation analysis, financial analysis and risk analysis of gas market investment projects in Z city center are carried out. The results show that: first, from the development background, organizational structure, asset situation, market situation of H Company, we can conclude that H Company as the main investor has the advantages of strong strength, wide market and great potential; Second, market analysis found that the gas market in downtown Z has a large market gap at present. The project construction can perfect the gas market in Z, and provide a higher standard of living experience for the people in downtown Z. Driving the development of Z city economy and local industry chain; Third, the overall estimation results show that the project can realize the repayment of capital and interest once a year, which is in good agreement with the risk estimation of investment funds; Fourth, financial analysis shows that the total investment return rate is 39.43, the capital profit margin is 68.17, the financial net present value is greater than 0, the financial internal return rate is 19.600.The dynamic investment payback period is 9.27 years. This project has bigger financial profit advantage, profit ability is stronger. The interest reserve ratio, repayment reserve ratio, asset-liability ratio in each loan period all meet the financial requirements, and the project has strong solvency. Meanwhile, the sensitivity analysis results show that the unit price of the sale is a comprehensive sensitive factor. Company H should keep the possible changes in natural gas prices within the forecast range; Fifth, there may be market risk, financial risk, production risk, macroeconomic policy risk and so on in the process of project investment. Therefore, in the process of project construction, we should actively manage the risk and effectively control the risk in order to meet the safety of the project. A requirement for profitability, etc.
【学位授予单位】：西安理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.22;F406.7

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