新电改背景下配电网设备投资策略评价及优化研究

发布时间：2018-11-23 07:25

【摘要】：近年来,随着我国经济社会快速发展,城市配电网建设投入力度不断加大,电网结构得到明显改善,配电能力和电能质量稳步提高,配电网发展取得长足进步,国务院颁发的《关于加强城市基础设施建设的意见》中明确要求提高城市基础设施建设及管理水平,进一步加强城市配电网建设。新一轮电力体制改革中则要求有序放开售电业务,鼓励社会资本进入增量配电网投资领域,未来配电网建设将迎来新的局面。而第一批试点项目的确定,标志着增量配电网投资业务放开已经从顶层设计进入了实施操作阶段。本文首先阐述了国内外针对全寿命周期成本和配电网投资策略综合评价的研究动态,结合电力体制改革的相关要求,探究了未来配电网设备投资运维环境及策略,包括自投资自运维、出租方投资自运维和出租方投资出租方运维三种主要策略;其次,分别分析了每种策略下配电网设备全寿命周期成本的组成及其测算方法;再次,从经济、技术和风险三个主要方面剖析和挖掘了影响配电网设备投资策略的因素,结合评价指标选取原则,建立了包含四级指标的配电网设备投资策略综合评价指标体系;然后,将熵权法和云模型进行了组合,提出了基于熵权-云模型的投资策略综合评价方法,其中,云模型可以通过云的形式很好地将概念的模糊性和不确定性结合起来,熵权法的主要作用则是确定各指标对上级指标的权重;最后,以H市的实际数据为例,分别针对三种不同的配电网设备投资策略进行了综合评价实证分析,结合评价结论分析了既有策略的不足,如投资运维策略及租金支付模式单一,融资租赁参与企业数量及类型不足和融资租赁相关规范体系不完善等,并根据这些不足提出针对性的策略优化建议。本文针对新电改背景下配电网设备投资策略评价及优化进行研究,在电改对配电网业务环境影响分析的前提下,构建配电网设备投资策略评价模型,并提出针对性的优化建议,为电网公司配电网投资策略的制定与管理方面提供必备的理论、数据支持和实践方法,为电网公司未来的配电网可持续发展提供前瞻性研究,进一步促进电力系统的安全、稳定和经济运行。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid development of our country's economy and society, the investment in the construction of urban distribution network has been increased, the power network structure has been obviously improved, the distribution capacity and power quality have been steadily improved, and the development of distribution network has made considerable progress. In the opinions on strengthening Urban Infrastructure Construction issued by the State Council, it is clearly requested to raise the level of urban infrastructure construction and management, and to further strengthen the construction of urban distribution network. In the new round of power system reform, it is necessary to liberalize the power sale business in an orderly manner, encourage social capital to enter the field of incremental distribution network investment, and the construction of distribution network will usher in a new situation in the future. The determination of the first batch of pilot projects indicates that the opening of incremental distribution network investment business has entered the operational stage from the top level design. In this paper, the research trends of comprehensive evaluation of life cycle cost and distribution network investment strategy at home and abroad are first expounded. Combined with the relevant requirements of power system reform, the paper probes into the future distribution network equipment investment operation and maintenance environment and strategy. It includes three main strategies: self-investment and self-maintenance, between the lessor and the lessor, and between the lessor and the lessor. Secondly, the composition and calculation method of the life-cycle cost of distribution network equipment under each strategy are analyzed respectively. Thirdly, this paper analyzes and excavates the factors that affect the investment strategy of distribution network equipment from three main aspects of economy, technology and risk, and combines the selection principle of evaluation index. The comprehensive evaluation index system of distribution network equipment investment strategy is established. Then, the entropy weight method and the cloud model are combined, and a comprehensive evaluation method of investment strategy based on entropy weight and cloud model is proposed, in which the cloud model can combine the ambiguity and uncertainty of the concept well through the cloud form. The main function of entropy weight method is to determine the weight of each index to the superior index. Finally, taking the actual data of H city as an example, this paper analyzes three different investment strategies of distribution network equipment, and analyzes the shortcomings of the existing strategies in combination with the evaluation conclusions. For example, the investment operation and maintenance strategy and rent payment mode is single, the number and type of financial leasing participating enterprises are not enough, and the related standard system of financial lease is not perfect, and according to these shortcomings, the paper puts forward some suggestions for strategy optimization. In this paper, the investment strategy evaluation and optimization of distribution network equipment under the background of new electricity reform is studied. On the premise of analyzing the influence of electricity reform on distribution network business environment, the evaluation model of distribution network equipment investment strategy is constructed, and the corresponding optimization suggestions are put forward. It provides the necessary theory, data support and practical methods for the establishment and management of the distribution network investment strategy of the power grid company, and provides the prospective research for the future sustainable development of the distribution network of the grid company, and further promotes the security of the power system. Stability and economic operation.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.61

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