我国风力发电绩效动态评价模型及绩效提升策略研究

发布时间：2018-11-28 15:40

【摘要】：常规能源如煤炭、石油及天然气等储量有限,且在大量开发及使用时会对生态环境产生不利影响。随着能源短缺与环境污染问题的日益严峻,使得大力发展清洁的可再生能源具有重要的经济意义与社会意义。近些年,风能、太阳能等可再生能源发电技术不断取得突破,并网规模不断增加。尤其是风能作为一种可再生的绿色能源,不仅洁净、无污染,还取之不尽、用之不竭,具有大规模的可开发利用前景。近些年来,我国风电装机容量不断增长,己成为中国能源经济发展的一大特色。风电作为清洁的可再生能源发电方式,可缓解我国电力紧张,促进社会低碳环保的可持续发展。近些年,新能源及可再生能源电力在世界范围内快速发展,关于新能源及可再生能源发电绩效的相关研究也越来越受到重视。本文首先简要介绍了全球风资源的分布和装机状况,以及我国风电产业的发展现状;并在此基础上分析出我国风电发展的影响因素,主要包括:风能状况与能源结构、产能过剩与并网发电困难、技术水平与创新能力不足、成本限制与电价政策、配套政策与激励措施等。本文于传统的DEA模型中引入时间维度建立风力发电绩效动态评价模型,从投入与产出角度对2011-2014年中国29个省(自治区、直辖市)的风电绩效的纯技术效率、规模效率、以及综合技术效率逐一进行评价;然后采用TOPSIS法对综合技术效率已经达到有效的省份进行二次评价的结果排序,从而实现对中国各省份风电绩效的最终排名。同时对评价结果进行深入的研究与比较,分析出不同省份风电绩效差别背后的机理及驱动力。为进一步研究影响我国风电绩效的因素,本文引入了基于改进的SCP范式,从我国风电的市场结构、市场行为、市场绩效三方面出发,应用多元线性回归模型分析三者之间的数量关系。通过模型结果发现,我国各省市风电市场结构、市场行为和市场绩效之间确实存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,并得知影响各省市风电绩效的主要因素有:各省市风力发电量占该省总发电量的比例、各省市的平均风功率密度、各省市输电网的平均输送容量、各省市输电网的线损率、各省市输电网的N-1通过率、各省市输电网的N-2通过率、各省市风电的标杆上网电价、各省市风电的上网电量、各省市风电绩效的综合效率。最后本文结合我国目前各省市风电绩效的现状,对未来风电的发展提出了几点建议。这对我国风力发电绩效的提高具有一定参考意义,并为我国实现节能减排目标、制定相关政策和措施提供决策支持。
[Abstract]:Conventional energy sources, such as coal, oil and natural gas, have limited reserves and have adverse effects on the ecological environment when they are developed and used in large quantities. With the increasing shortage of energy and environmental pollution, it is of great economic and social significance to develop clean renewable energy. In recent years, renewable power generation technologies such as wind energy and solar energy have made breakthroughs, and the scale of grid has been increasing. Especially as a kind of renewable green energy, wind energy is not only clean, pollution-free, but also inexhaustible, and has the prospect of large-scale development and utilization. In recent years, the installed capacity of wind power in China has been increasing, which has become a major feature of the development of China's energy economy. Wind power, as a clean and renewable energy generation method, can alleviate the power shortage and promote the sustainable development of low-carbon environmental protection in China. In recent years, with the rapid development of new and renewable energy and power generation in the world, more and more attention has been paid to the performance of new energy and renewable energy generation. In this paper, the distribution and installation of wind resources in the world and the development status of wind power industry in China are introduced briefly. On this basis, the factors affecting wind power development in China are analyzed, including wind energy situation and energy structure, overcapacity and difficulties in grid-connected power generation, insufficient technical level and innovation ability, cost limitation and electricity price policy. Supporting policies and incentives. In this paper, the time dimension is introduced into the traditional DEA model to establish the dynamic evaluation model of wind power performance. From the angle of input and output, the pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency of wind power performance of 29 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the Central Government) in China from 2011-2014 are analyzed. And the comprehensive technical efficiency is evaluated one by one; Then the TOPSIS method is used to rank the results of the secondary evaluation of the provinces whose comprehensive technical efficiency has reached the effective level, so as to achieve the final ranking of the wind power performance of the provinces in China. At the same time, the evaluation results are deeply studied and compared, and the mechanism and driving force behind the difference of wind power performance in different provinces are analyzed. In order to further study the factors affecting wind power performance in China, this paper introduces the improved SCP paradigm, starting from three aspects: market structure, market behavior and market performance of wind power in China. The multivariate linear regression model is used to analyze the quantitative relationship among the three factors. The results of the model show that there is a long-term and stable equilibrium relationship among wind power market structure, market behavior and market performance in various provinces and cities of China. The main factors that affect the wind power performance of each province are as follows: the proportion of wind power generation in each province, the average wind power density of each province, the average transmission capacity of each province and city transmission network, the line loss rate of each province and city transmission network, the proportion of wind power generation in each province and city, the average wind power density of each province and city. The N-1 pass rate of each province and city transmission network, the N-2 pass rate of each province and city transmission network, the benchmarking electricity price of wind power in each province and city, the electricity quantity of wind power in every province and city, the comprehensive efficiency of wind power performance of each province and city. Finally, according to the current situation of wind power performance in various provinces and cities in China, this paper puts forward some suggestions for the development of wind power in the future. It has a certain reference significance for improving the performance of wind power generation in China, and provides decision support for our country to achieve the goal of energy saving and emission reduction, and to formulate relevant policies and measures.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.61

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