弃风、弃光背景下的电能替代模式及适应方法研究

发布时间：2018-12-30 10:19

【摘要】：2013年8月15日,国家电网公司印发电能替代实施方案,倡导“以电代煤、以电代油,电从远方来,来的是清洁电”的能源消费新模式,不断提高电能占终端能源消费比重,推进社会节能减排,促进电能清洁替代。实施电能替代战略,可以减少城市大气污染,解决弃风、弃光新能源资源浪费的困境。电能替代是转变能源发展方式、实现能源战略转型、实施能源革命的重大举措。全面实施电能替代、提高电气化水平,对于解决弃风、弃光的消纳,优化能源结构、防治大气污染、提高新能源的利用水平至关重要。本文结合2016年5月国家发改委发布的《关于推进电能替代的指导意见》(发改能源[2016]1054号)和电能替代十三五规划,以弃风、弃光现象严重为背景,首先对中国能源消费结构与不同用户的用能特性进行梳理,在总体分析我国用煤、用油、用气结构的特点后,对我国新能源的发展现状进行研究,明确弃风、弃光形成原因与开展电能替代的迫切性。其次,对电能替代内涵、政策进行梳理,结合全寿命周期、临界电价等相关理论,分别采用不考虑初始投资的运行成本分析法和考虑初始投资的基于全寿命周期的年费用分析法构建了两种临界电价测算模型,并以G省为例,将测算出的临界销售电价与现行目录电价比较,以对建筑采暖领域、生产制造领域、交通领域以及居民用户电力消费领域中的替代方案进行经济评价。然后,基于用户电能替代设备寿命周期内的现金流量,从减少投资费用、运营成本的经济角度出发,提出“2+3+6”链式促新能源电能替代总体模式,进而对建筑采暖、生产制造、交通运输以及电力供应与消费领域的四大类用户提出具体的电能替代模式并从政府、电网公司、新能源发电企业等不同社会主体的角度,构建“主体+要素+时间+空间”多维角度的落地机制,促进新能源的消纳。
[Abstract]:On August 15, 2013, the State Grid Company issued and issued a new energy consumption plan, advocating a new energy consumption pattern of "replacing coal with electricity, replacing oil with electricity, and electricity coming from afar," in order to continuously increase the proportion of electric energy in the terminal energy consumption. Promote social energy saving and emission reduction, promote clean substitution of electric energy. The implementation of electric energy substitution strategy can reduce urban air pollution and solve the problem of waste of new energy resources. Electric energy substitution is an important measure to change the mode of energy development, realize the transformation of energy strategy and implement the energy revolution. The overall implementation of electric energy substitution and the improvement of electrification level are very important to solve the problem of abandoning wind, eliminating light, optimizing energy structure, preventing and controlling air pollution, and improving the utilization level of new energy. This paper combines the National Development and Reform Commission's guidelines on the Promotion of Power substitution (No. 1054 of Energy Development and Reform) and the 13th Five-Year Plan of Electric Energy substitution issued in May 2016. The background is the abandonment of wind and the serious phenomenon of light loss. First of all, the energy consumption structure of China and the characteristics of different users are combed. After the overall analysis of the characteristics of coal, oil and gas structure in China, the development status of new energy in China is studied, and the development of new energy is clearly abandoned. The reason of abandoning light and the urgency of developing electric energy substitution. Secondly, combing the connotation and policy of electric power substitution, combining the theory of whole life cycle, critical electricity price and so on, Two kinds of critical electricity price models are constructed by using the operation cost analysis method without considering the initial investment and the annual cost analysis method based on the whole life cycle considering the initial investment, and taking G province as an example. The calculated critical selling price is compared with the current catalog price in order to evaluate the alternative schemes in the field of building heating, production and manufacture, transportation and consumer electricity consumption. Then, based on the cash flow in the life cycle of the power substitution equipment, and from the economic point of view of reducing the investment cost and operating cost, the "236" chain mode of promoting new energy and power substitution is put forward, and then the heating of the building is made. Four major categories of users in the fields of production, manufacturing, transportation, power supply and consumption put forward specific modes of electricity substitution and from the perspective of different social entities such as government, power grid companies, new energy generation enterprises, etc. Construct the landing mechanism of multi-dimensional angle of subject element time and space to promote the absorption of new energy.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.61

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