基于关联规则的船舶制造成本影响因素研究

发布时间：2019-02-22 20:37

【摘要】：随着ERP、PLM等信息系统的部署完成,船舶企业在实现对业务进行有效管理的同时,积累了大量的产品全生命周期的财务、生产、供应链、客户关系等数据,通常这些数据只是发挥了作为数据的记录作用,没有发挥其中隐藏的数据价值,如果能让这些数据“说话”,分析这些数据中潜藏的成本影响因素,并挖掘影响因素之间的关联关系,不仅对船舶制造企业成本控制具有指导意义和实用价值,而且可以推动船舶制造过程的精细化管理。本文根据船舶制造业务数据离散型的特点以及关联规则方法的适用性,在探究关联规则及Apriori算法的基础上,从船舶制造生产组织流程着手,梳理影响船舶制造成本的内部因素和外部因素,分析这些因素对于船舶制造成本的影响,依据不同原因选取出用于研究的十个非财务因素;其次,构建了基于关联规则的船舶制造成本影响因素分析模型,包括船舶制造成本影响因素分析过程,构建影响因素概念层次树,选取相关数据,数据的离散化处理及用实例演示关联规则中的Apriori算法原理;最后,以某船厂近十年剔除材料价格、劳动力价格、汇率等不可预测因素以及边际贡献定价等经营策略因素之后成本超支的134艘船舶制造数据为样本,通过数据挖掘软件Weka建立船舶制造成本影响因素分析模型,挖掘影响船舶制造成本的因素,并分析影响因素之间的关联关系,结合行业经验对结果进行解释和分析,并通过实际生产情况对结果进行验证,论证了关联规则在船舶制造成本影响因素研究中可以有效应用。针对挖掘的结果,结合生产实际情况,提出船舶制造成本管理的合理化建议,为我国船舶制造企业加强成本管理和控制提供参考借鉴。
[Abstract]:With the completion of the deployment of ERP,PLM and other information systems, the shipbuilding enterprises have accumulated a large amount of financial, production, supply chain, customer relationship and other data in the whole life cycle of products while realizing the effective management of the business. Often, these data simply serve as a record of the data, not the hidden value of the data, if the data can be "spoken" to analyze the underlying cost factors in these data, Mining the relationship between the factors not only has guiding significance and practical value for the cost control of shipbuilding enterprises but also can promote the fine management of shipbuilding process. According to the characteristics of discrete data of shipbuilding business and the applicability of association rules method, this paper discusses the association rules and Apriori algorithm, and starts with the process of shipbuilding production organization. Combing the internal and external factors that affect the ship manufacturing cost, analyzing the influence of these factors on the ship manufacturing cost, and selecting ten non-financial factors for the study according to the different reasons. Secondly, an analysis model of influencing factors of shipbuilding cost based on association rules is constructed, including the process of influencing factors analysis, the concept hierarchy tree of influencing factors, and the selection of relevant data. The discretization of data and the principle of Apriori algorithm in association rules are demonstrated by examples. Finally, 134 shipbuilding data, which exclude the unpredictable factors such as material price, labor price, exchange rate, marginal contribution pricing and so on, cost overrun in a shipyard in the past ten years are taken as a sample. Based on the data mining software Weka, this paper establishes the analysis model of the influencing factors of ship manufacturing cost, excavates the factors that affect the ship manufacturing cost, analyzes the correlation between the factors, and explains and analyzes the results by combining with the industry experience. The results are verified by the actual production conditions, and it is proved that the association rules can be applied effectively in the study of the factors affecting the shipbuilding cost. According to the results of mining and the actual situation of production, the paper puts forward some reasonable suggestions on the management of shipbuilding cost, and provides reference for our shipbuilding enterprises to strengthen cost management and control.
【学位授予单位】：江苏科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.474;F406.7

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