基于自助法的我国清洁能源需求预测
发布时间：2019-02-24 20:41
【摘要】：以我国历年能源消费量为基础,利用加速遗传算法建立了生命回旋预测模型(LC)。为了进一步刻画预测模型计算值的不确定性,提高预测模型的准确性,运用自助法对计算误差进行重抽样,建立了基于自助法的能源消费量生命回旋预测模型(LC-B),并结合相关政策预测2020年我国清洁能源需求总量。研究结果表明,2020年,我国清洁能源需求量将到达4.96亿~8.51亿tce。
[Abstract]:Based on the energy consumption over the years in China, the life cycle prediction model (LC).) was established by using the accelerated genetic algorithm (AGA). In order to further depict the uncertainty of calculation value of prediction model and improve the accuracy of prediction model, the self-help method is used to resample the calculation error, and a life cyclotron prediction model (LC-B) for energy consumption based on self-help method is established. And combined with relevant policies to forecast the total demand for clean energy in 2020. The results show that the demand for clean energy in China will reach 496 million ~ 851 million tce. in 2020.
【作者单位】： 北京欧特科新技术有限公司;
【分类号】：F224;F426.2
，
本文编号：2429911
[Abstract]:Based on the energy consumption over the years in China, the life cycle prediction model (LC).) was established by using the accelerated genetic algorithm (AGA). In order to further depict the uncertainty of calculation value of prediction model and improve the accuracy of prediction model, the self-help method is used to resample the calculation error, and a life cyclotron prediction model (LC-B) for energy consumption based on self-help method is established. And combined with relevant policies to forecast the total demand for clean energy in 2020. The results show that the demand for clean energy in China will reach 496 million ~ 851 million tce. in 2020.
【作者单位】： 北京欧特科新技术有限公司;
【分类号】：F224;F426.2
，
本文编号：2429911
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