中国橙汁进口差异化需求弹性分析
发布时间：2019-04-27 20:53
【摘要】：基于进口差异化需求模型,估计中国橙汁进口市场对主要来源国的边际支出份额和价格净效应,从而测算出进口支出及价格弹性,剖析中国对橙汁主要进口来源国的偏好程度,判断中国橙汁进口替代可行性。研究发现,第一,中国对橙汁不具有刚性需求,短期进口替代是可行的。第二,预测橙汁进口依赖度会下降,不过进口集中度将加剧,对巴西、以色列和美国有显著增加的趋势。第三,中国需控制对巴西、以色列的进口支出,增加对美国橙汁进口价格的波动幅度,并且可将西班牙视为国内橙汁进口替代的目标国。
[Abstract]:Based on the model of import differential demand, this paper estimates the marginal expenditure share and net price effect of the Chinese orange juice import market on the main source countries, and then calculates the import expenditure and price elasticity, and analyzes the degree of preference of China to the main source countries of orange juice import. To judge the feasibility of Chinese orange juice import substitution. First, there is no rigid demand for orange juice in China, and short-term import substitution is feasible. Second, it is predicted that orange juice import dependence will fall, but import concentration will increase, with significant increases for Brazil, Israel and the United States. Third, China needs to control import spending on Brazil and Israel, increase the volatility in prices of American orange juice imports, and consider Spain a target country for domestic orange juice imports.
【作者单位】： 华中农业大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：“十三五”期间中央财政科技计划专项“国家现代农业产业技术体系(MATS)”(编号:CARS-27-08B)——柑橘产业经济分析和商业模式创新研究
【分类号】：F426.82;F752.61
本文编号：2467302
[Abstract]:Based on the model of import differential demand, this paper estimates the marginal expenditure share and net price effect of the Chinese orange juice import market on the main source countries, and then calculates the import expenditure and price elasticity, and analyzes the degree of preference of China to the main source countries of orange juice import. To judge the feasibility of Chinese orange juice import substitution. First, there is no rigid demand for orange juice in China, and short-term import substitution is feasible. Second, it is predicted that orange juice import dependence will fall, but import concentration will increase, with significant increases for Brazil, Israel and the United States. Third, China needs to control import spending on Brazil and Israel, increase the volatility in prices of American orange juice imports, and consider Spain a target country for domestic orange juice imports.
【作者单位】： 华中农业大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：“十三五”期间中央财政科技计划专项“国家现代农业产业技术体系(MATS)”(编号:CARS-27-08B)——柑橘产业经济分析和商业模式创新研究
【分类号】：F426.82;F752.61
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