中国制造业资源错配及其对全要素生产率的影响研究

发布时间：2019-05-26 19:24

【摘要】：在经济"新常态"背景下,长期依靠资源投入来实现经济增长的中国制造业要想实现"十三五"规划中提出的制造强国战略,则必须转变其增长方式。2015年3月,中国政府工作报告中首次提到"提高全要素生产率"的概念,之后又指出"提高全要素生产率是新常态背景下唯一可持续的经济增长动力";2016年1月中央财经领导小组会议上提出"供给侧改革",指明"供给侧改革就是优化资源配置与制造业产业结构升级。在此背景下,本文将研究方向锁定在制造业的资源错配及其对全要素生产率的影响。本文分析中国制造业资源错配及其对全要素生产率的影响,主要包括以下四个部分内容:(1)梳理了资源错配理论及对全要素生产率影响的国内外最新研究成果,详细阐述了资源再配置理论和全要素生产率的理论内涵和影响机制;(2)基于HK模型,使用Wind数据库中国制造业上市公司2008-2015年的数据,选取合理的评价指标,对生产函数进行回归分析,从时间趋势变化、行业、地区的角度定量分析了中国制造业的资源错配程度及其对实际全要素生产率与潜在全要素生产率之间缺口的影响;(3)最后将资源错配与企业特征、地区特征和政策变量相联系,探讨错配的来源。本文主要发现:中国制造业资源错配程度在样本期的8年内呈现不断改善的特征,2015年的资源错配系数较2008年下降了 28.9%;制造业的实际全要素生产率呈逐年上升趋势,且实际产出与潜在产出的差值也呈缩小趋势,如果2015年制造业企业能够有效消除资源错配,则全要素生产率能提高9.3%。其中,资源依赖型的产业呈现资源错配恶化的现象,而新兴行业的资源错配程度低且有所改善;与此相对应地,"夕阳行业"的实际全要素生产率在观测期内呈下降趋势,新兴行业的实际全要素生产率在不断上涨,成熟行业的实际全要素生产率平稳增长,行业各自的发展特征明显。不同地区间的资源错配程度上,中部地区的错配最为严重,顺次是东部地区和西部地区;而东部地区产出效率提升空间最大,中部次之,西部最小,其缺口差异特征与地区间的经济发展程度相匹配。以2015年数据为标准,若资源配置效率达到最优,东、中、西部地区的全要素生产率的增长空间分别可增加18.21%、13.11%、9.27%。最后,资源错配的影响因素检验表明,企业规模因素能够减少资本错配,但恶化了劳动错配和总体资源错配,而出口额与政府补贴比重、净利润增长率则在不同程度上有利于资源错配程度的减少。总体而言,中国制造业的增长方式有所改善,正处于向内涵型发展道路转变的攻坚阶段。因此,我们要不断优化资源配置效率,促进资源合理自由流动,同时也要合理引导资源流向在产业间和地区间均衡配置,给予新兴制造业足够的政策支持来提高中国制造业全要素生产率,激发中国经济增长新的活力,实现向制造强国的转变。
[Abstract]:Under the background of the "new normal" of the economy, China's manufacturing industry, which has long relied on resource investment to achieve economic growth, must change its growth mode if it wants to realize the strategy of "manufacturing power" put forward in the 13th five-year Plan. March 2015, In the work report of the Chinese government, the concept of "improving total factor productivity" is mentioned for the first time, and then it is pointed out that "improving total factor productivity is the only sustainable driving force of economic growth in the context of the new normal". At the meeting of the Central Financial and Economic leading Group in January 2016, the "supply-side reform" was put forward, which pointed out that the "supply-side reform" is to optimize the allocation of resources and upgrade the industrial structure of manufacturing industry. In this context, this paper focuses on the resource mismatch of manufacturing industry and its impact on total factor productivity (TFP). This paper analyzes the mismatch of manufacturing resources in China and its impact on total factor productivity, including the following four parts: (1) combing the theory of resource mismatch and the latest research results on total factor productivity at home and abroad. The theory of resource redistribution and the theoretical connotation and influence mechanism of total factor productivity are expounded in detail. (2) based on HK model, using the data of Chinese manufacturing listed companies from 2008 to 2015 in Wind database, selecting reasonable evaluation index, regression analysis of production function, from the change of time trend, industry, From the regional point of view, this paper quantitatively analyzes the degree of resource mismatch in China's manufacturing industry and its influence on the gap between the actual total factor productivity and the potential total factor productivity. (3) finally, the resource mismatch is related to the characteristics of enterprises, regional characteristics and policy variables, and the source of mismatch is discussed. This paper mainly finds that the mismatch degree of manufacturing resources in China shows the characteristics of continuous improvement in the eight years of the sample period, and the resource mismatch coefficient in 2015 is 28.9% lower than that in 2008. The actual total factor productivity of manufacturing industry is on the rise year by year, and the difference between real output and potential output is also decreasing. If manufacturing enterprises can effectively eliminate resource mismatch in 2015, total factor productivity can be increased by 9.3%. Among them, the resource-dependent industries show the phenomenon of deterioration of resource mismatch, while the degree of resource mismatch in emerging industries is low and improved. In contrast, the actual total factor productivity of "sunset industry" shows a downward trend during the observation period, the actual total factor productivity of emerging industries is constantly rising, and the actual total factor productivity of mature industries is growing steadily. The development characteristics of each industry are obvious. In the degree of resource mismatch between different regions, the mismatch in the central region is the most serious, followed by the eastern region and the western region. However, the output efficiency is the largest in the eastern region, the second in the middle and the smallest in the west, and the gap difference is matched with the degree of economic development between regions. Based on the 2015 data, if the efficiency of resource allocation reaches the optimal, the growth space of total factor productivity in the eastern, middle and western regions can increase by 18.21%, 13.11% and 9.27%, respectively. Finally, the test of the influencing factors of resource mismatch shows that the enterprise scale factor can reduce the capital mismatch, but worsen the labor mismatch and the overall resource mismatch, and the proportion of exports to government subsidies. The growth rate of net profit is beneficial to the reduction of resource mismatch to varying degrees. Overall, the growth mode of China's manufacturing industry has improved and is in the key stage of transformation to the implicit development road. Therefore, we should constantly optimize the efficiency of resource allocation, promote the reasonable and free flow of resources, and at the same time reasonably guide the flow of resources to balanced allocation between industries and regions. Give enough policy support to the emerging manufacturing industry to improve the total factor productivity of China's manufacturing industry, stimulate the new vitality of China's economic growth, and realize the transformation into a manufacturing power.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨商业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F424

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