辽宁省金融发展对经济增长影响的实证研究

发布时间：2017-12-28 06:35

本文关键词：辽宁省金融发展对经济增长影响的实证研究　出处：《辽宁大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：中国特色社会主义市场经济的建设从改革开放至今已经38年了,期问经济建设取得了举世瞩目的重大成就,中国的国内生产总值(GDP)由1978年的3645亿元增长到了2015年的676708亿元,仅在37年的时间里,中国的GDP就增加了将近186倍。与此同时,中国的金融业经历了融资体制的转变、证券市场的建立、金融业制度环境和法制体系的形成等多个过程,目前已经形成了一个完整的金融体系。同时,金融不仅己经逐渐成为重要的宏观调控手段,同时也是国家对金融资源进行合理配置的主要方法。随着金融业的不断发展,完善的金融市场结构和功能能够更好的服务资本市场,从而促进经济增长。由此可见,金融发展对经济增长的影响至关重要。在中国经济迅速发展过程中,辽宁省的经济发展贡献了自己的力量。辽宁省GDP由1978年的229.2亿元增加到了2015年的29485.4亿元。同时,辽宁省的金融业也得到了快速发展,金融业增加值在2013年达到了1136.1亿元,同时辽宁省银行业发展稳定,商业银行依然占据主要市场；证券市场增长较大,交易额大幅上涨47.5%；保险业的保险密度和保险深度指标虽然低于全国平均水平,但仍然有较大增长。综上所述,辽宁省金融业正处于快速发展的阶段,但目前,辽宁省的金融业发展也遇到了很多问题,如中小企业融资难、金融体系发展不平衡、金融系统运行效率较低等问题。本文在实证部分中选取金融相关率、金融效率和辽宁省人均GDP的指标,建立了向量自回归模型,选择1978-2015年辽宁省经济数据,同时运用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数、方差分解等计量方法,针对辽宁省金融发展对经济增长的影响进行实证研究。研究发现：辽宁省金融发展虽然能够对经济增长起到促进作用,但促进作用并不明显。因此,本文针对这一实证结果,结合辽宁省当前金融业发展的状况,提出了三点政策建议,期望最终能够扭转辽宁省当前经济发展的颓势,真正发挥出金融业对经济增长的促进作用。
[Abstract]:The construction of socialist market economy Chinese characteristics from the reform and opening up has been 38 years, the period of economic construction has made remarkable achievements, China gross domestic product (GDP) of 364 billion 500 million yuan from 1978 up to 2015 676708 billion yuan, in just 37 years, China GDP increased nearly 186 times. At the same time, China's financial industry has gone through many processes, such as the transformation of financing system, the establishment of securities market, the institutional environment of financial industry and the formation of legal system, etc., and now has formed a complete financial system. At the same time, finance has not only become an important means of macroeconomic regulation and control, but also the main method of the state's rational allocation of financial resources. With the continuous development of the financial industry, the perfect financial market structure and function can better serve the capital market, thus promoting economic growth. Thus, the impact of financial development on economic growth is crucial. In the process of rapid economic development in China, the economic development of Liaoning province has contributed to its own strength. The GDP of Liaoning province increased from 22 billion 920 million yuan in 1978 to 2 trillion and 948 billion 540 million yuan in 2015. At the same time, Liaoning Province, the financial industry has been rapid development, the financial industry added value in 2013 reached 113 billion 610 million yuan, while the development of Liaoning Province, the stability of the banking industry, commercial banks still occupy the main market; securities market grows larger, turnover rose sharply 47.5%; the insurance industry and the depth and density of insurance index although lower than the national average however, there is still a large growth. To sum up, Liaoning's financial industry is in a stage of rapid development, but at present, Liaoning's financial industry has also encountered many problems, such as the financing difficulties of SMEs, the unbalanced development of financial system, and the low efficiency of financial system. The index of financial efficiency and the per capita GDP of Liaoning Province financial related rate, in the empirical part selection, established the vector auto regression model, Liaoning province economic data of 1978-2015, at the same time, using cointegration test and Grainger causality test, impulse response function, variance decomposition and other measurement methods, aiming at the development of empirical research on finance in Liaoning province the impact of economic growth. The study found that the financial development in Liaoning province can play a role in promoting economic growth, but the role of the financial development is not obvious. Therefore, aiming at this empirical result, combined with the current development of financial industry in Liaoning Province, this paper puts forward three policy proposals, hoping to eventually reverse the decline of Liaoning's current economic development and really play a role in promoting the financial industry's economic growth.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F832.7;F127

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