人民币汇率走势及其对进出口贸易影响的研究

发布时间：2017-12-30 18:12

本文关键词：人民币汇率走势及其对进出口贸易影响的研究　出处：《天津财经大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：人民币汇率经历几次大的改革之后,从2005年开始就处在了升值轨道上,我国的对外贸易收支并没有如理论阐述的那样出口减少、顺差降低,而是出现了人民币不断升值的同时对外贸易顺差却不断增加的现象,因此人民币汇率对贸易收支的影响成为了学界研究的焦点问题。不过,现有的研究大都是从人民币名义汇率或者人民币实际有效汇率的单一角度来考察其对贸易的影响,很少从各类汇率的不同角度分析这一问题,也很少从对不同国家及区域双边贸易收支影响的比较分析展开研究。也就是说有关不同汇率对相同贸易区域贸易额影响、同一汇率对不同贸易区的贸易收支影响的研究相对少,这篇文章就此抓住这两点：不同汇率指标；不同贸易国别,来分析人民币汇率变动对我国进出口贸易的影响。文章首先在导论中回顾了有关人民币汇率制度改革,以及人民币汇率变动与我国进出口贸易关系的相关文献,同时还回顾了日本在1980年代曾经遇到日元汇率与贸易差额变动的类似问题,以作为对我国目前所面临的汇率与贸易关系问题的研究参照与比较。其次,第2章在分析汇制改革及人民币汇率形成机制的基础上,从实际有效汇率,以及对美元、日元、欧元三种名义汇率考察、比较了人民币汇率走势及其差异；之后,在第3章从人民币实际有效汇率变动对我国总体进出口贸易的影响,以及从我国与美国、日本和欧盟三大贸易伙伴的实际双边汇率对各自进出口贸易收支的影响分别做考察和比较,并对运用M-L条件和J曲线效应对背离理论预期的现象作了探讨。然后,第4章通过协整检验、格兰杰因果检验等计量分析方法,从名义汇率和实际双边汇率两方面分别考察了人民币汇率变动对中美、中欧(欧元区)、中日贸易收支的影响。最终得出结论：我国对美贸易、对欧元区贸易分别受到人民币对美元、人民币对欧元的名义汇率的影响最显著；而对日本贸易则受人民币对日实际双边汇率的影响更显著。最后,第5章包含论文的基本结论,以及对于如何解释人民币汇率升值的影响背离理论预期的现象进行了探讨。
[Abstract]:After the RMB exchange rate has experienced several major reforms, from the beginning of 2005 in the appreciation of the orbit, China's foreign trade balance is not as export theory reduces the surplus decreased, but there is also foreign trade surplus has continued to increase the phenomenon of RMB appreciation, so the impact of RMB exchange rate on trade balance has become the focus of academic research. However, most of the existing research is a single point of view from the exchange rate of RMB nominal and real effective exchange rate of RMB to examine its impact on trade, rarely analyze the problem from different angles of the exchange rate, rarely from the influence of different countries and regional comparison of bilateral trade balance the analysis is researched. That is to say the different exchange rate impact on the same trade regional trade, affect the same exchange rate on different trade area of the trade balance. Relatively few, this article focuses on these two points: different exchange rate indicators, and different trade countries, to analyze the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on China's import and export trade.
Firstly, the introduction reviews the reform of RMB exchange rate system, and the related literature of RMB exchange rate and China's import and export trade, but also reviews the similar problems encountered in Japan in 1980s the yen exchange rate and trade balance changes, so as to study the relationship between the exchange rate and trade issues in China and reference with the comparison.
Secondly, the second chapter based on the analysis of the reform of exchange rate and the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, the real effective exchange rate, and the dollar, yen, Euro three nominal exchange rate of RMB exchange rate movements and compared the difference; later, in the third chapter, from the impact of real effective exchange rate on China's total import and export trade. And from China and the United States, affect the bilateral real exchange rate in Japan and the EU's three largest trading partner of the import and export trade balance were studied and compared, and discuss the use of M-L and J curve deviates from the expected effect theory is made.
Then, the fourth chapter through the cointegration test, Granger causality test and other econometric analysis methods of Grainger, from the two aspects of the nominal exchange rate and the bilateral real exchange rate of RMB exchange rate changes were investigated on Sino US, Sino EU (euro zone), the impact of Sino Japanese trade balance. The final conclusion: China's trade with the United States, the euro zone trade respectively by the RMB against the U.S. dollar, the most significant influence on the nominal exchange rate of RMB against the euro; the Japanese trade is affected by the RMB bilateral real exchange rate is more significant.
Finally, the fifth chapter contains the basic conclusions of the paper and the phenomenon of how to explain the effect of the effect of RMB exchange rate appreciation deviating from the theory expectation.

【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.6

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