香港人民币离岸市场发展研究

发布时间：2017-12-31 11:06

本文关键词：香港人民币离岸市场发展研究　出处：《武汉大学》2013年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：香港人民币离岸市场的发展,初期是市场自发启动,我国中央政府对香港特别行政区的人民币业务的政策支持也主要是为了支持个人居民跨境流动消费所需,如内地居民在香港地区使用人民币购物。但是,2008年金融危机以来,对于以美元为基础的国际货币体系有较多的批评,我国政府确立了“推进人民币国际化,加快东亚区域货币合作和倡导实施国际货币体系改革”的战略目标,而香港人民币离岸市场是人民币国际化的重要内容和支撑,香港人民币离岸市场取得了迅速的发展,目前已经成为境外最大的人民币离岸中心,初步建立了较完整的离岸市场体系,并为境外人民币业务提供重要的支付结算、投资支持。但在此过程中,也产生了跨境套利、影响中国内地货币政策等问题,进一步影响到我国中央政府对于人民币国际化政策的决策。而香港人民币离岸市场属于政策推动型的离岸市场,其发展受到我国中央政府政策的直接影响,因此这些问题及争议必须影响香港人民币离岸市场的未来发展。本文对于香港人民币离岸市场的构成、发展背景、发展过程、目前成果、当前的主要问题和影响进行了比较全面的论述和分析,并在此基础上提出了相关政策建议。香港人民币离岸市场的发展具有一定优势。从现有对于离岸市场发展的研究成果来看,一般认为地理位置、经济水平、法律体系、政治稳定、政府政策支持等因素影响离岸市场的发展。现有研究同时认为香港具备发展人民币离岸市场的条件,并且其发展对于内地的影响包括增加热钱进入内地渠道、影响内地利率和汇率、影响内地货币供应量、影响香港金融市场稳定等方面,但是整体来看风险是可控的。本文在这些研究的基础上,分析了香港人民币离岸市场发展的背景及优势,认为香港具有完善的金融制度和监管,金融市场发达,并已经有美元等离岸市场的经验。进一步分析了我国中央政府对于人民币国际化的政策发展过程,在谨慎推进的同时对于香港有较多的倾斜支持。但是我国中央政府内部各部门之间对于人民币国际化的政策取向不同,也扩大了套利问题的争议,影响了人民币国际化和香港人民币离岸市场的未来发展方向和速度。香港人民币离岸市场已经初步建立了完整的离岸市场体系,具备了一定的市场深度,本文从清算体系、投资市场、外汇市场三个方面进行了深入分析。首先,在支付结算体系方面,已经基本建成覆盖全球主要经济体的人民币清算网络,能够为全球人民币离岸之间、离岸和在岸之间提供支付结算服务。其次,投资市场已经具备一定的规模,发债主体多元化。第三,建立了两个外汇市场：一是CNY汇率市场,由具备跨境贸易背景的企业参与；第二个是完全自由的CNH汇率市场,由香港和全球的市场参与者自由竞价,形成香港市场化的人民币汇率,并且没有任何交易背景限制。两个市场发展已经具备一定规模,可以向全球人民币投资者提供即期、远期、NDF、IRS等全面的人民币外汇及衍生品,在内地人民币不可自由兑换的情况下,为境外人民币市场参与者提供了支持。香港人民币离岸市场发展当前遇到的最大问题是离岸市场和在岸市场之间的跨境套利,并引起社会舆论和我国中央政府内部的争议,影响了离岸市场的发展进程。本文分析了人民币跨境套利的三种模式及其影响,其正面影响一是迅速推动人民币跨境贸易结算的发展；二是显著增加了香港市场贸易融资的规模,加速了香港离岸人民币市场的发展。其负面影响一是热钱借道跨境贸易人民币结算流入内地,影响内地货币供应量和宏观调控效果；二是离岸市场影响在岸市场人民币汇率。从实际结果来看,首先,香港人民币离岸市场的规模仍很有限,热钱对内地货币供应量和宏观调控的影响非常小；其次,通过对香港人民币离岸市场NDF汇率、内地远期市场汇率和人民币即期汇率三组时间序列的分析,证明人民币在岸即期汇率与离岸NDF各期限品种的汇率存在明显的协整关系,并且在岸市场汇率更具信息优势,对离岸市场存在影响,因此现阶段套利行为对在岸市场汇率的影响很小。综合来看,套利行为的负面影响有限,而对于推进香港人民币离岸市场建设和人民币国际化有较大帮助。综合以上分析,提出相关政策建议：首先,我国政府可以发挥套利行为的积极作用加速人民币国际化和香港人民币离岸市场的发展；其次,在香港人民币债券、股票、基金等投资市场的发展过程中,来自于内地的市场参与者起到重要作用,而香港作为自由经济体采取投资者风险自负的市场原则,建议我国中央政府可以进一步放松对于内地企业到香港进行人民币IPO、发行人民币债券的各类政策限制,支持香港投资市场规模快速扩大；第三,在香港人民币离岸市场的发展过程充分发挥了市场力量的作用,我国中央政府可以借鉴香港人民币离岸市场的市场机制,推进内地债券市场的市场化、远期外汇市场建设,并实现在岸市场和离岸市场的良性循环发展。
[Abstract]:The development of Hongkong's offshore RMB market, the market is at the early stage of spontaneous initiation, RMB business on the Hongkong Special Administrative Region of China's central government policy support is mainly to support the individual residents of the cross-border flow of consumer needs, such as mainland residents in the Hongkong area to use RMB shopping. However, since the 2008 financial crisis, there is more criticism the dollar based international monetary system, our government has established "to promote the internationalization of RMB, accelerate the strategic goal of regional monetary cooperation in East Asia and promote the implementation of the reform of the international monetary system, while the offshore renminbi market in Hongkong is an important content and support the internationalization of the RMB, the offshore renminbi market in Hongkong has achieved rapid development, has now become overseas the largest offshore RMB center, initially established a relatively complete system and for the offshore market, offshore RMB business The payment and settlement, an important investment support. But in the process, also produced a cross-border arbitrage effect China mainland monetary policy, and further affect the central government of China for RMB internationalization policy decisions. Hongkong offshore RMB market belongs to the policy driven offshore market, its development has a direct impact on China's central government policy therefore, these problems and disputes must affect the future development of the offshore renminbi market in Hongkong. The Hongkong offshore RMB market structure, development background, development process, present achievements, main problems and influence the current of a more comprehensive exposition and analysis, and put forward relevant policy recommendations.
Has certain advantages in the development of Hongkong's offshore RMB market. From the existing research results for the development of the offshore market, generally considered the geographical position, economic level, legal system, political stability, government policy support and other factors affecting the development of the offshore market. At the same time, the existing research argues that Hongkong has the development of offshore RMB market conditions, and for its development the effects include increased hot money into the mainland mainland channels, interest rate and exchange rate, money supply affect the mainland, affecting the stability of Hongkong financial market, but the overall risk is controllable. In this paper, on the basis of the research, analyzes the background and advantages of Hongkong offshore RMB market development, that Hongkong has the financial system and to improve the supervision of the financial market has developed, and US dollar offshore market experience. Further analysis of the Chinese Central Government Office of policy development process for the internationalization of the RMB, the cautious while pushing for Hongkong is more inclined to support. But between the internal departments of the central government of China for RMB internationalization policy orientation is different, also expanded the arbitrage controversy over the impact of the internationalization of RMB and Hongkong offshore RMB market in the future development direction and speed.
Hongkong offshore RMB market has established a complete offshore market system, with the market depth, the investment from the clearing system, the market, the three aspects of the foreign exchange market is analyzed. Firstly, in terms of payment and settlement system has been basically completed RMB clearing network covering the world's major economies, to global RMB offshore, offshore and onshore to provide payment and settlement services. Secondly, the investment market already has a certain scale, diversification of bonds. Third, set up two foreign exchange market: one is the CNY exchange market, with participation by the cross-border trade background of the enterprise; the second is completely free of CNH exchange market by free competition Hongkong and the global market participants, the formation of the RMB exchange rate in Hongkong market, and no trading background restrictions. Two market development has A certain scale can provide global RMB investors with immediate, long-term, NDF, IRS and other comprehensive RMB foreign exchange and derivatives, and provide support for overseas RMB market participants in the case of the mainland RMB can not be freely convertible.
The biggest problem in Hongkong the development of offshore RMB market is currently experiencing offshore and onshore market between the cross-border arbitrage, and caused controversy and public opinion within the central government of China, influenced the development process of the offshore market. This paper analyzes the three modes of cross-border RMB arbitrage and its effects, its positive effect is to promote the development of a rapid RMB cross-border trade settlement; two is a significant increase in the Hongkong market trade financing scale, accelerate the development of Hongkong's offshore RMB market. Its negative influence is a hot money via the cross-border RMB trade settlement into the mainland, the mainland influence the money supply and the effect of macro-control; two is the impact of RMB offshore market in the offshore market from the actual exchange rate. The results, first of all, the offshore renminbi market in Hongkong is still very limited, hot money to the mainland money supply and macroeconomic regulation. Sound is very small; secondly, based on the Hongkong NDF exchange rate of RMB offshore market, the mainland market analysis long-term RMB exchange rate and the spot rate of three time series, prove that the yuan cointegration exists obviously in the onshore spot rate and offshore NDF varieties of the period of the exchange rate, and the exchange rate in the offshore market has more information advantage, have influence on the offshore market, it has very little influence on the exchange rate at this stage of arbitrage in the offshore market. Overall, the negative impact of arbitrage is limited, which is of great help to promote the construction of Hongkong offshore RMB market and the internationalization of the RMB.
Based on the above analysis, puts forward relevant policy suggestions: first, the Chinese government can play a positive role in accelerating arbitrage RMB internationalization and the development of Hongkong's offshore RMB market; secondly, shares in Hongkong, the development process of RMB bonds, funds and other investment markets, from the mainland market participants play an important role, but as Hongkong free market economies to take the principle of the investor's own risk, suggested that our central government can further relax for mainland enterprises in Hongkong to RMB IPO, the policy limit the issuance of RMB bonds, to support the rapid expansion of the scale of the investment market in Hongkong; third, in the process of development of Hongkong's offshore RMB market and give full play to the role of market forces, I the central government can learn from the market mechanism of Hongkong offshore RMB market, promote the mainland bond market The development of the forward foreign exchange market and a benign circular development in the shore and offshore markets.

【学位授予单位】：武汉大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.5

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