CAFTA框架下人民币跨境流通研究

发布时间：2017-12-31 15:21

本文关键词：CAFTA框架下人民币跨境流通研究　出处：《天津财经大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着我国经济的持续增长,综合国力的提升,在区域经济贸易中地位不断提高,人民币跨境流通规模和范围进一步扩大。人民币境外规模的扩大促进了人民币国际货币职能的深化,人民币作为区域货币的影响力已经显现。 2010年中国-东盟自由贸易区(CAFTA)正式成立,这不仅使中国与东盟国家间的经济发展揭开新的篇章,而且使人民币区域化进入更有利的发展框架之中。借助CAFTA的贸易平台效应,人民币在东盟国家的流通量快速增长,有效地补充了国际结算的需要；同时,人民币的跨境流通在高度货币化的当今社会会导致各种要素和资源的跨境配置,进而对国民经济、区域经济乃至世界经济产生重要作用。一方面,在CAFTA框架下人民币的境外流通有利于促进我国与东盟国家的对外贸易,有利于我国经济产业结构调整,在区域范围内优化资源配置；有利于我国出口企业规避汇率风险,使我国获得铸币税收益；有利于提高我国商业银行的国际化经营水平和人民币国际地位的提高。另一方面,人民币的跨境流通由于监测缺位,对我国边境省区的金融稳定可能造成冲击,加大我国海关监管的难度。人民币跨境流通大规模发展起来后,金融市场上利率和汇率的微小变化都有可能引起人民币的大规模流动,国际游资也可能趁机渗透进来。这种逐利资本的流动一般都具有顺周期的特性,这与宏观经济调控的逆周期性相悖,大大增加了我国宏观经济调控的风险和成本。目前,在CAFTA框架下,我们应该借助有利形势,进一步促进我国和东盟国家的边境贸易,保持人民币汇率稳中有升,建立有效的人民币跨境流通的管理和监测体系,促进人民币区域化进程的发展。在研究方法和创新方面,主要采用了定性分析与定量分析相结合的方法,在对人民币境外流通进行成因与效应分析的同时,建立计量模型,加入经济数据的实证分析,使用大量数据、图表来分析CAFTA框架下人民币跨境流通的现状及其影响。在创新方面,在中国-东盟自由贸易区(CAFTA)的框架下,对东盟国家的人民币流通规模、结构和流通渠道进行分析,更具有针对性和现实意义；在数据分析的基础上,再探究CAFTA框架下人民币流通的成因和影响,理论与实务相结合,实践意义较强。
[Abstract]:With the continuous growth of China's economy and the promotion of comprehensive national strength, the status of regional economy and trade has been continuously improved. The scale and scope of cross-border circulation of RMB has been further expanded. The expansion of the scale of RMB overseas has promoted the deepening of the international monetary function of the RMB, and the influence of the RMB as a regional currency has been shown. CAFTAA was established in 2010, which not only makes the economic development between China and ASEAN countries open a new chapter. With the help of the trade platform effect of CAFTA, the circulation of RMB in ASEAN countries increases rapidly, which effectively complements the need of international settlement. At the same time, the cross-border circulation of RMB in the highly monetized society today will lead to the cross-border allocation of various elements and resources, which will play an important role in the national economy, regional economy and even the world economy. Under the framework of CAFTA, the circulation of RMB abroad is beneficial to promote the foreign trade between China and ASEAN countries, to adjust the industrial structure of our economy and to optimize the allocation of resources in the regional scope. It is beneficial for our export enterprises to avoid the exchange rate risk and make our country gain the seigniorage income. On the other hand, the cross-border circulation of RMB may have an impact on the financial stability of China's border provinces because of the absence of monitoring. After the large-scale development of cross-border circulation of RMB, the small changes of interest rate and exchange rate in the financial market may cause the large-scale flow of RMB. The flow of profit-driven capital is generally pro-cyclical, contrary to the countercyclical nature of macroeconomic regulation. At present, under the framework of CAFTA, we should further promote the border trade between China and ASEAN countries with the help of favorable situation. Keep the RMB exchange rate steady and rising, establish an effective management and monitoring system of RMB cross-border circulation, and promote the development of RMB regionalization. In the aspect of research method and innovation, this paper mainly adopts the combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, and establishes the econometric model while analyzing the causes and effects of RMB circulation abroad. Add the empirical analysis of economic data, using a large number of data, charts to analyze the current situation and impact of RMB cross-border circulation under the framework of CAFTA. Under the framework of China-ASEAN Free Trade area (CAFTAA), it is more pertinent and practical to analyze the scale, structure and channel of RMB circulation in ASEAN countries. On the basis of data analysis, this paper probes into the cause and influence of RMB circulation under the framework of CAFTA. The combination of theory and practice is of great practical significance.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.6;F822.2

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