金融危机视角下的货币政策决策研究

发布时间：2018-01-01 05:31

本文关键词：金融危机视角下的货币政策决策研究　出处：《湖南大学》2013年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：全球金融危机对宏观经济的强烈冲击使作为金融核心的货币政策决策研究成为经济学术界关注的重点问题之一。发达国家的经验表明：虚拟经济在现代社会经济中的份量越来越大，其对社会经济发展的推动和破坏作用均是巨大的，，在进行政策决策时必须予以充分关注和考虑。因此，深入总结和研究历次金融危机中各国货币政策的操作及其成效，优化我国应对金融危机的货币政策决策机制，成为我国货币政策理论研究的一项重要课题。本文研究基于货币政策非中性的理论前提，综合运用宏观经济学、金融市场学、计量经济学、统计学等相关学科知识，从货币政策决策的概念出发，在回顾总结近百年来历次金融危机中各国货币政策决策经验的基础上，深入探讨货币政策决策的机制和依据，并且对货币政策决策的有效性进行实证检验。全文遵循“理论推演——实证分析——国际比较——对策建议”的研究范式，多角度、多层面、深入系统地剖析金融危机视角下的货币政策决策问题，并提出一整套切实可行的优化我国货币政策操作策略，提高我国货币政策决策有效性的创新策略。概括起来，货币政策理论的主要争议在于其决策究竟是“相机抉择”还是“按规则行事”。在1977年以前，似乎是相机抉择优越于规则行事，但当动态非一致性概念引入到宏观经济学领域后，“按规则行事”第一次有了坚实的理论支撑。金融危机期间一国央行应采取怎样的货币政策以缓解危机、促进经济尽快复苏，学者们就危机期间实行紧缩性还是扩张性货币政策展开了激烈争论。2008年全球金融危机中，国际上又出现将包括非常规货币政策在内的量化宽松和信贷宽松货币政策纳入央行政策工具的创新举措，大大丰富了货币政策决策理论研究。就货币政策决策的时机选择而言，文章运用实证检验的分析方法，旨在为货币政策决策的时间窗口判断提供可靠依据。在决策主体的高效决策及政策规则的恰当选择下，通过构建基于MS-VAR的金融风险预警模型，综合货币危机指数、银行危机指数和资产泡沫危机指数三个指标衡量我国金融体系的风险状况，预测货币政策执行的时间点，保障货币政策制定与执行的适时、适度。在分析几次大规模经济危机中各国货币政策操作策略的基础上，文章重点研究了金融危机视角下我国货币政策的决策机制。通过分析货币政策决策主体的独立性特征及货币政策决策主体的行为特征，发现强化中央银行决策的独立性依然是现阶段我国央行的总体发展趋势。梳理货币政策的工具规则与目标规则，在金融危机背景下探索适合我国货币政策的决策规则，分析认为通货膨胀目标规则是我国货币政策规则未来的较好选择。从有效性评价和检验来看，一方面，常规货币政策对物价稳定和经济增长都有一定的作用。金融危机爆发前后，货币政策效应都具有明显的非对称性，货币政策紧缩效应大于扩张效应。另一方面，非常规货币政策在金融危机背景下对稳定金融市场起到一定的作用。通过对美联储三大类创新性货币政策工具有效性的检验，发现定期拍卖便利（TAF）、主经纪商融资便利（PDCF）和资产支持商业票据货币市场共同基金流动便利（AMLF）等信贷类的货币政策工具有显著的有效性，而其他资产购买类的货币政策工具效果不佳。比较分析在上世纪30年代美国经济“大萧条”、20世纪90年代日本金融危机、1997年亚洲金融危机以及2008年国际金融危机中代表性国家的货币政策决策，深刻总结经验与启示。在全球金融危机的视角下，论述提高我国货币政策决策有效性的一系列政策措施，包括：强化我国货币政策决策主体的独立性、实行弹性的通货膨胀目标制、提高货币政策透明度、增强非常规政策的有效性等，使我国货币政策决策的规则选择更加完善，充分发挥货币政策的承诺效应，以便中央银行的货币政策决策能够实现独立、高效。本文研究兼具理论性和实用性，是理论指导实践的研究成果，其理论上的贡献是首次系统定义货币政策决策，厘清金融危机环境下货币政策决策的作用机理，构建系统的理论分析框架；实践中的贡献则是尝试建立有普遍适用意义的识别、化解和救助金融危机的货币政策决策一般模型和方法，并对我国的货币政策决策与金融危机进行仿真分析，为完善我国货币政策操作策略提供智力支持。
[Abstract]:The strong impact of the global financial crisis on the macro - economy has made the research on monetary policy decision - making as the core of the financial industry a key problem that the economic academic community pays attention to . The experience of developed countries shows that the virtual economy is more and more important in the modern social economy , and it must pay close attention and consideration when making policy decision - making . Therefore , it is an important topic in the study of monetary policy in China to sum up and study the operation and effectiveness of monetary policy in the past financial crisis and optimize our country ' s monetary policy decision - making mechanism to deal with the financial crisis . Based on the non - neutral theory premise of monetary policy , this paper discusses the mechanism and basis of monetary policy decision - making based on the concept of macro - economics , financial market science , econometrics and statistics , and makes an empirical test on the effectiveness of monetary policy decision - making . Generally speaking , the main dispute of monetary policy theory is whether its decision is " camera choice " or " act according to rules " . Before 1977 , it appeared to be the choice of camera to be superior to the rule , but when the concept of dynamic non - consistency was introduced into the field of macro economics , " acting on the rules " for the first time had a strong theoretical support . In the global financial crisis in 2008 , scholars have taken quantitative easing and credit easing monetary policy , including non - conventional monetary policy , into the innovation of central bank policy tools , which greatly enriched the theoretical study of monetary policy decision - making . Based on MS - VAR financial risk pre - warning model , comprehensive money crisis index , bank crisis index and asset bubble crisis index , the paper analyzes the risk situation of China ' s financial system , predicts the time point of monetary policy implementation , and guarantees the timely and moderate monetary policy making and implementation . On the basis of analyzing the operation strategies of monetary policy in several large - scale economic crises , this paper focuses on the decision - making mechanism of monetary policy in our country from the perspective of financial crisis . Through analyzing the characteristics of the independence of monetary policy decision - making body and the behavioral characteristics of monetary policy decision - making body , it is found that strengthening the independence of the decision - making of the central bank is still the general trend of the central bank in China . On the one hand , conventional monetary policy plays an important role in price stability and economic growth on the one hand . Monetary policy effect has obvious asymmetry before and after the outbreak of financial crisis , and monetary policy tightening effect is greater than expansion effect . On the other hand , non - conventional monetary policy plays a certain role in stabilizing financial market in the background of financial crisis . A Comparative Analysis of the Great Depression of the American Economy in the 1930s In the view of the global financial crisis , the paper discusses a series of policy measures to improve the policy - making effectiveness of China ' s monetary policy . This paper studies the theory and practicability , which is the research result of theory guiding practice . The theoretical contribution is to define monetary policy decision - making in the first system , to clarify the mechanism of monetary policy decision - making in the financial crisis , and to construct the theoretical analysis framework of the system . The contribution in practice is to try to establish the general model and method of monetary policy decision - making with universal application meaning , and to analyze the monetary policy decision - making and financial crisis in our country , and provide intellectual support for perfecting the policy operation strategy in China .

【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.59;F822.0

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