基于人民币汇率走势的货币政策操作策略

发布时间：2018-01-01 06:41

本文关键词：基于人民币汇率走势的货币政策操作策略　出处：《世界经济研究》2014年10期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：进入21世纪以来,在人民币存在持续升值压力的背景下,我国央行逐渐形成了以冲销性干预为主要手段的货币政策操作模式。冲销性干预对汇率长期走势、经济货币化比率和通货膨胀影响不大,但在缩小汇率短期波动、加速外汇储备累积和推高利率方面作用明显。2006年后法定准备金率作为主要冲销手段被不断提高,2010年后随着汇市干预力度的下降,准备金冻结基础货币过多的现象日益严重,加剧了系统性金融风险,并带来了一定的货币紧缩效应。在国际环境和国内因素共同作用下,2014年以来人民币汇率出现了均衡波动态势,面对新的形势,必须改变货币政策操作模式,减少汇市干预,逐渐降低准备金率,加速推进利率、汇率市场化,并充分发挥其调控手段作用。
[Abstract]:Since twenty-first Century, the renminbi has the pressure of appreciation in the background, the Central Bank of China has gradually formed the intervention as the main means of the monetary policy operation mode. To sterilise the sterilized intervention on the long-term trend of the exchange rate, currency and inflation rate has little economic impact, but in the reduced exchange rate of short-term fluctuations, accelerate the accumulation of reserves and push up the interest rate was.2006 years after the statutory reserve rate as the main policy is to continuously improve, after 2010 with declining currencies intervention, monetary base excess reserve freezing phenomenon is becoming increasingly serious, exacerbating systemic financial risks, and bring monetary tightening effect to a certain extent. In the common role of the international environment and domestic factors since 2014, the RMB exchange rate equilibrium fluctuation situation, facing the new situation, monetary policy must change the mode of operation, reduce the intervention of currencies, Gradually reduce the reserve ratio, accelerate the promotion of interest rates, exchange rate market, and give full play to the role of its regulatory means.

【作者单位】：广东金融学院;
【基金】：教育部社会科学规划项目(项目编号:11YJA790128) 广东金融学院“创新强校工程”项目(49)的资助
【分类号】：F832.6;F822.0
【正文快照】： 1994年官方汇率与市场汇率并轨以来,人民币汇率总体上呈现持续升值态势。在此背景下,我国央行采取了冲销性干预策略:一方面,为避免人民币升值过速对出口等实体经济造成不利冲击,在外汇市场持续买入外汇;另一方面,为避免本币过度投放造成经济过热和通货膨胀,在货币市场利用各种

【参考文献】