国际短期资本流动与我国官方外汇储备变化关系

发布时间：2018-01-01 14:02

本文关键词：国际短期资本流动与我国官方外汇储备变化关系　出处：《南京大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：国际短期资本流动在金融全球化的背景下,成为不可逆转的趋势。近年来它在各国金融危机中的作用受到学者们广泛关注,在不同的金融危机形成机制下,国际短期资本大量外逃给投资国造成的短期和长期影响是不同的。当一国经济实力较弱,国际短期资本外逃导致的羊群效应使得该国经济恢复较为缓慢；当一国经济实力较强,国际短期资本外逃对投资国的冲击力是有限的,经常项目大额顺差的恢复会较快扭转看空该国的局面。在二十世纪九十年代发生的几次金融危机中,国际短期资本大量外逃都给这些国家的官方外汇储备造成损失。由于没有足够的官方外汇储备能够应对资本外逃,这些国家甚至为此而放弃固定汇率制度。此后,在世界范围内各个新兴市场和发展中国家不断增持本国的官方外汇储备规模,全球官方外汇储备处于高增长的态势。1995年全球官方外汇储备规模为13895.87亿美元,而截止到2012年底,全球官方外汇储备规模为109363.23亿美元,增长了6.87倍。尤其是2002-2007年,平均年增长率达到了21.92%。在高额的全球官方外汇储备规模中,三分之二来自新兴市场和发展中国家。影响官方外汇储备的需求因素主要为进口规模、外商直接投资规模和外债余额。虽然国际短期资本流动不是影响一国官方外汇储备的主要因素,但是,一方面国际短期资本可以通过进口、外商直接投资和短期外债的渠道流入投资国,另一方面国际短期资本剧烈的波动有可能成为一国金融危机的直接或间接原因。因此,研究国际短期资本流动和官方外汇储备的关系是非常有必要的。针对我国而言,由于资本项目的管制没有放开,国际短期资本可以通过各种合法隐蔽及非法渠道进行跨境资金流动,因此这就给测度在华境外短期资本的流动规模造成一定的难度。虽然现阶段我国没有一个准确的模型能够测度在华境外短期资本的规模,但是运用国际通行的测算方法能够大致观测到国际短期资本在我国境内的流动行为。在1997-1998年东南亚金融危机时,在华境外短期资本掀起一股逃离我国的浪潮。从1999年开始,在华境外短期资本净流出的规模在减少,到2003年,国际短期资本从净流出变为净流入。这是因为一方面东南亚金融危机对我国的影响并不大,我国经济很快恢复高速增长,另方面从2003年开始人民币升值的预期越来越高。从2006年开始,我国又进入一个国际短期资本净流出的时期,特别是2007年次贷危机及2008年形成全球金融危机后,在华境外短期资本净流出较多。在2009年出现了大量国际短期资本净流入之后,又出现了净流出的态势。截止2012年,在华境外短期资本净流出较多。与此同时,我国的官方外汇储备在经历了从2000年开始的高速增长之后,从2012年开始出现低速增长。根据实证分析,本文得出以下主要结论。国际短期资本流动对我官方外汇储备变化有影响,但是只有在金融危机发生的背景下,国际短期资本外逃会对我国官方外汇储备产生较大的负面影响。在经济平稳发展之时,国际短期资本流动不会对我国官方外汇储备产生较大波动。国际投资者对国际环境未来预期的波动,会减少我国官方外汇储备。当国际投资者预期投资环境波动越强烈,我国官方外汇储备受到的影响越大。截止到目前我国没有受到金融危机的严重冲击,因此我国官方外汇储备的波动不是主要源于国际短期资本的波动。现阶段在华境外短期资本的大量流出属于正常流动范畴,不会引发看空中国经济的浪潮,更不会引起我国金融危机的爆发。我国官方外汇储备高增长的模式开始改变,因巨额官方外汇储备带来的货币超发现象将得到扭转。针对我国现阶段国际短期资本流动与官方外汇储备的关系,本文认为我国政府需要注重以下几点：第一,规范国际资本流动的管理,加快开放资本账户,使国际短期资本流动可监测；第二,继续坚持促进外汇资金流出的政策；第三,密切关注VIX指数的变化；第四,释放官方外汇储备巨额增长的压力。
[Abstract]:The international short-term capital flow under the background of financial globalization has become an irreversible trend. In recent years, its role in the world financial crisis by the attention of scholars, in different financial crisis formation mechanism, short-term and long-term influence to investment in the country caused a large number of international short-term capital flight is different. When a country's economic strength weak, herding caused by international short-term capital flight so that the country's economic recovery is slow; when a country's strong economic strength, international short-term capital flight impact on investment in China is limited, current account huge surplus recovery will be faster in the reverse bearish situation.
Several times in the financial crisis occurred in 1990s, a large number of international short-term capital flight caused losses to these countries of official foreign exchange reserves. Because there is not enough official foreign exchange reserves to cope with capital flight, these countries even give up the fixed exchange rate system in the world. Since then, various emerging markets and developing countries continues to increase their official the scale of foreign exchange reserves, global official foreign exchange reserves in the high growth of.1995 global official foreign exchange reserves of $1 trillion and 389 billion 587 million, and by the end of 2012, global official foreign exchange reserves of $10 trillion and 936 billion 323 million, an increase of 6.87 times. Especially in the 2002-2007 years, the average annual growth rate reached 21.92%. in high global official foreign exchange reserves the scale, 2/3 from emerging markets and developing countries.
The demand factors of official foreign exchange reserves is the main import scale, the scale of foreign direct investment and foreign debt. Although the international short-term capital flows is not the main factor affecting a country's official foreign exchange reserves, however, on the one hand the international short-term capital through imports, foreign direct investment and short-term debt into investment in the channel, on the other hand, international the volatility of short-term capital may be a direct or indirect causes of the financial crisis in one country. Therefore, research on the relationship between international short-term capital flows and official foreign exchange reserves is very necessary.
In our country, because capital controls have not been opened, the international short-term capital can make cross-border capital flows through a variety of legal and illegal covert channels, so this is to measure in China Overseas short-term capital scale is difficult. Although at the present stage in our country without an accurate model can measure in China Overseas short-term the scale of capital, but the use of conventional international measurement methods can be roughly observed international short-term capital flow behavior in our country. In 1997-1998 years when the Asian financial crisis, international short-term capital in China set off a wave of escape in China. From the beginning of 1999, the China International short-term capital outflow in the scale in reducing by 2003, the international short-term capital from the net outflow of net inflow into. This is because of the impact of financial crisis in Southeast Asia on the one hand, China is not large, the economy of our country soon. After rapid growth, on the other hand from the beginning of 2003 the expected appreciation of the renminbi is getting higher and higher. From the beginning of 2006, China has entered a period of international short-term capital outflow, especially the subprime crisis of 2007 and 2008 formed after the global financial crisis in China, overseas short-term net capital outflow. More appeared in the 2009 net inflows international short-term capital, and a net outflow trend. By the end of 2012, the China International short-term capital outflow more. At the same time, China's official foreign exchange reserves after the rapid growth from the beginning of 2000, from 2012 began to slow growth.
According to the empirical analysis, this paper draws the following conclusions. The international short-term capital flow has influence on our official foreign exchange reserves, but only in the background of the financial crisis, the international short-term capital flight will have a great negative impact on China's official foreign exchange reserves. In the stable economic development, will not produce the international short-term capital flow large fluctuations on China's official foreign exchange reserves. International investors on the international environment of the future expected volatility, will reduce China's official foreign exchange reserves. When international investors expected investment environment fluctuation more strongly influenced by China's official foreign exchange reserves is increasing. As a serious impact in China does not have the financial crisis, so the fluctuation of foreign exchange China's official reserves volatility is not due to the international short-term capital. At the present stage in China Overseas short-term capital outflow belongs to the category of normal flow, It will not lead to a wave of Chinese economy and will not lead to the outbreak of China's financial crisis. The pattern of high growth of our official foreign exchange reserves has begun to change. The phenomenon of excessive money brought by huge foreign exchange reserves will be reversed.
For the present stage of our country international short-term capital flows and official foreign exchange reserves, this paper argues that our government needs to pay attention to the following points: first, standardize the capital flow management, speeding up the opening of the capital account, the international short-term capital flow monitoring; second, continue to adhere to the promotion of foreign exchange capital outflow policy; third, pay close attention to the change of VIX index; fourth, the official release of huge foreign exchange reserves growth pressure.

【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F831.7;F832.6

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