美国量化宽松货币政策的有效性及对中国经济的影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-01 14:11

本文关键词：美国量化宽松货币政策的有效性及对中国经济的影响研究　出处：《东北财经大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2008年美国金融危机演变成全球的金融危机,这给全球经济和美国经济带来严重的冲击,以美国为代表的世界各主要经济体纷纷出台各种政策措施以应对金融危机。其中,美国自金融危机爆发至今已连续实施了四轮量化宽松货币政策应对此次金融危机。危机爆发之初,美联储曾迅速采取一系列传统的货币政策以求救助美国经济,但传统货币政策由于传导机制受金融危机破坏而无法起到立竿见影的效果,美国经济陷入持续衰退状态。在此背景下,美联储在2008年底开始实施首轮量化宽松货币政策,截止到目前,美联储共计实施了四轮量化宽松货币政策。美国作为世界最大的经济体,其为应对金融危机和重振经济而采取的各种政策措施是我们把握世界经济走向的风向标,深入研究美国应对此次金融危机所采取的货币政策措施有利于我们准确认识量化宽松货币政策的传导机制及政策效果；另外,在经济全球化的背景下,美国持续实施量化宽松货币政策也会通过多种渠道对中国经济带来各种影响。因此,研究美国量化宽松货币政策的有效性及其对中国经济带来的影响具有十分重要的理论意义和现实意义。本文共分为五部分：第一章,绪论。主要介绍本文的选题背景和研究意义、国内外文献综述和研究现状、本文研究的主要内容、框架和方法等等,最后将点明本文的创新点和不足。第二章,美国量化宽松货币政策的理论分析。首先对量化宽松货币政策的概念进行界定,然后将对量化宽松货币政策的操作方式、传导机制两个方面进行论述,最后从目标、操作方式、传导渠道、操作期限四个方面阐明量化宽松货币政策与传统货币政策的区别。第三章,美国量化宽松货币政策的实践分析。首先结合政策实施背景回顾了美国从2008年至今所实施的四轮量化宽松货币政策,然后系统梳理了美国实施量化宽松货币政策所采用的创新型货币政策工具,最后对美国量化宽松货币政策的有效性进行了一般性分析。第四章,美国量化宽松货币政策对美国经济的有效性及其对中国经济的影响进行实证分析。本文采用VAR模型对美国量化宽松政策有效性及其中国经济的影响进行了实证分析,实证结果显示,美国实施量化宽松政策对美国经济的救助作用是明显的,通过汇率渠道、中长期利率渠道及信号效应渠道的有效传导,量化宽松政策可以有效地提高美国国内生产总值、提高美国国内通货膨胀水平,但是量化宽松政策对提升美国就业、降低失业率方面效果不理想；另外,美国实施量化宽松政策会通过贸易渠道、资本流动渠道及汇率渠道对中国经济增长及物价水平产生正向影响,其中汇率渠道是美国量化宽松政策影响中国的最主要渠道。第五章,结论及政策建议。其政策建议为,中国目前应该加强对短期国际流动资本的监管,进一步推动人民币汇率形成机制改革,加快推进人民币国际化并加强对中国外汇储备资产的管理,以此来减少美国持续实施量化宽松货币政策所带来的不利影响,保持中国经济的平稳快速增长。
[Abstract]:In 2008 the US financial crisis evolved into a global financial crisis, which brings serious impact to the global economy and the U.S. economy, the world's major economies represented by the United States have introduced various policies and measures to cope with the financial crisis. Among them, the United States since the outbreak of the financial crisis has been the implementation of the four round of quantitative easing monetary policy to deal with the financial the crisis at the beginning of the crisis, the Fed has quickly adopted a series of traditional monetary policy in order to rescue the U.S. economy, but the traditional monetary policy conduction mechanism due to damage by the financial crisis to immediate effect, the U. S. economy into recession state. Under this background, the Fed started the first round of quantitative easing the policy at the end of 2008, up to now, the total implementation of the Fed's four round of quantitative easing monetary policy. The United States is the largest economy in the world, it is Various policy measures taken in response to the financial crisis and revive the economy we grasp the trend of the world economy, the in-depth study of U.S. monetary policy measures to deal with the financial crisis to help us to accurately understand the quantitative easing monetary policy transmission mechanism and policy effect; in addition, under the background of economic globalization, the United States continued to implement quantitative loose monetary policy will also bring various influence on the Chinese economy through a variety of channels. Therefore, it has very important theoretical significance and practical significance of the research of the quantitative easing monetary policy effectiveness and the China economic impact.
This article is divided into five parts:
The first chapter is the introduction. It mainly introduces the background and significance of this topic, the literature review and research status at home and abroad, the main contents, frameworks and methods of this paper, and finally points out the innovation and shortcomings of this paper.
The second chapter, the analysis of the quantitative easing monetary policy theory. The concept of quantitative easing monetary policy is defined, then the quantitative easing monetary policy operation, two aspects of transmission mechanism are discussed, finally from the target, mode of operation, transmission channels, four aspects of operation period to clarify the difference of quantitative easing monetary policy and the traditional monetary policy.
The third chapter, analysis of the practice of the quantitative easing monetary policy. First reviews the United States since 2008 the implementation of the four round of quantitative easing monetary policy combined with the background of the implementation of policies, and then systematically analyzes the innovative monetary policy tools to the United States to implement quantitative easing monetary policy adopted, finally made a general analysis on the effectiveness of U.S. quantitative easing monetary policy.
The fourth chapter makes an empirical analysis of the quantitative easing monetary policy effectiveness of the U.S. economy and its influence on the China economy. This paper uses the VAR model to the U.S. quantitative easing policy effectiveness and China economy by empirical analysis, the empirical results show that the quantitative easing policy aid effect on American economy is obvious. Through the exchange rate channel, the effective transmission of the long-term interest rate channel and signal effect of the channel, the quantitative easing policy can effectively improve the GDP of the United States, the United States increased the level of inflation, but the quantitative easing policy to enhance U.S. employment, reducing the unemployment rate effect is not ideal; in addition, the United States implemented quantitative easing policy will be through the trade channel, channel capital flows and exchange rate channel China has a positive impact on economic growth and the price, the exchange rate channel is beautiful The main channel of China's quantitative easing policy affects China.
The fifth chapter, the conclusions and policy recommendations. The policy suggestions for the present, Chinese should strengthen the short-term international capital flow regulation, to further promote the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, accelerate the internationalization of RMB China and to strengthen the management of foreign currency reserve assets, in order to reduce the adverse effects brought by the United States continued to implement quantitative easing monetary policy, maintain the steady and rapid growth of the economy. Chinese

【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F827.12;F124;F832.5

【参考文献】