中国存款准备金率与铸币税研究：1985-2012

发布时间：2018-01-02 09:36

本文关键词：中国存款准备金率与铸币税研究：1985-2012　出处：《复旦大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：铸币税常与货币扩张,财政赤字货币化相联系在一起,是一个日益受到众多学者关注并研究的宏观经济问题。对铸币税的来源和用途进行分析,并且测算我国铸币税的规模,将能更好的理解铸币税并且分析其对我国经济的重要性。而存款准备金率政策是我国三大货币政策工具之一,且使用较为频繁,研究中国存款准备金率与铸币税之间的关系,可以发现货币政策对一国重要财政融资来源—铸币税的影响,将为我国未来的货币政策的制定与执行提供更有效的建议,且对将来铸币税的研究开拓了一个更综合的分析视角。本文首先从来源和使用途径两个角度对铸币税进行了理论分析,根据1985年至2012年我国的数据,对总铸币税以及各个组成部分进行了测算,并对变化趋势给予了分析,发现存款准备金率,基础货币,非政府债务投资及对应的收益率,价格水平,对中央政府债务的投资等因素都会对铸币税产生影响。接着通过分析一个具有企业、家庭和银行三部门的经济,推导出处于均衡状态时的通货膨胀率和经济增长率,在设定货币需求函数为卡甘模型之后,推导出均衡的通货膨胀税,并通过数学推导来判断存款准备金率和货币供给增长率对通货膨胀率以及通货膨胀税的影响。接着,基于我国实际经济数据,对通货膨胀铸币税,总的存款准备金率,货币供给增速以及国内生产总值进行实证检验,通过协整检验得出关系等式,并通过脉冲响应对变量间的关系给出了进一步的分析。考虑到存款准备金率的变动会一国经济产生深远的影响,通过模拟存款准备金率变动对铸币税收入的影响,将会更全面的了解两者之间的关系,并且发现存款准备金率的上升对铸币税收入产生先负面后正面的影响。最后,本文总结了各个部分的观点,并对我国未来铸币税研究以及宏观货币政策方面提出了若干建议。通过本文的研究,实际测算发现：我国的铸币税从规模上看对我国经济的重要性与日俱增,从其组成部分看,存款准备金率等各类因素的变动都会对其产生一定影响,未来需要综合分析,才能加深对铸币税的理解从而更好地应用铸币税。而从通货膨胀铸币税,存款准备金率,货币供给增速以及GDP的实证检验看出,存款准备金率的变动将对通货膨胀铸币税产生负面的影响,而货币供给增速以及GDP和通货膨胀税之间存在着正相关的关系。从存款准备金率对铸币税收入的模拟影响发现,如果存款准备金率能够从0%不断上调至100%,铸币税收入会呈现出现先下降后上升的趋势,由于一般国家在调整存款准备金率时,变化方向以及变化幅度都较小,这使得存款准备金率和铸币税的关系处于负相关区域。因此建议未来在制定相关宏观货币政策时,也同时考虑存款准备金率变动对铸币税收入的影响,通过加强公开市场操作等,搭配使用多种货币政策工具,来促使我国经济更加平稳良好运行。
[Abstract]:Seigniorage and monetary expansion, fiscal deficits are linked together, is an increasingly affected by macroeconomic issues. Many scholars and sources and uses of seigniorage is analyzed, and the calculation of Chinese seigniorage scale, will have a better understanding of Seigniorage and analyzes its importance to our country economy. And the deposit reserve rate policy is one of China's three major monetary policy tools, and more frequent use, the study of the relationship between the deposit reserve rate Chinese and Seigniorage, monetary policy can be found to influence the source of seigniorage on important financial financing of a country, will provide more effective suggestions for the formulation and implementation of me in the future monetary policy, and for future research on seigniorage to develop a more comprehensive perspective.
Firstly, from the perspective of two sources and ways of using of seigniorage is analyzed, according to the 1985 to 2012 China's data on total Seigniorage and the various components were calculated, and the tendency to give the analysis, found that the deposit reserve ratio, monetary base, rate of return, investment and non government debt the corresponding price level factors on central government debt investment will have an impact on seigniorage. Then through the analysis of a family enterprise, and banks in three sectors of the economy in equilibrium, inflation rate and economic growth rate is derived, in the setting of monetary demand function model for Kagan after push the derived equilibrium inflation tax, and through mathematical derivation to determine the deposit reserve ratio and the growth rate of the money supply on inflation rate and the inflation tax. Then, based on the reality of our country economy The data on inflation seigniorage, the total deposit reserve rate, the growth rate of the money supply and the gross domestic product of empirical testing, through the cointegration test relation equation, and the impulse response of the relationship among the variables analyzed. Considering the deposit reserve rate changes will have a far-reaching impact of a country's economy through the simulation, the deposit reserve rate changes on seigniorage income, will be more comprehensive understanding of the relationship between the two, and found that the deposit reserve rate rise after the positive negative influence to the seigniorage income. Finally, this paper summarizes the various parts of the view, and puts forward some suggestions for future study on the tax I China and the macro monetary policy.
Through this study, the actual estimates that China's Seigniorage in terms of size importance to China's economy grow with each passing day from parts, all kinds of factors, changes in the deposit reserve rate will have a certain impact on the future, the need for a comprehensive analysis, in order to deepen the understanding of Seigniorage and better the application of Seigniorage and inflation. From seigniorage, the deposit reserve rate, the growth rate of the money supply and GDP empirical test shows that changes in the deposit reserve ratio will have a negative impact on inflation and Seigniorage, money supply growth has a positive relationship between the speed and the GDP and the inflation tax. From the simulation of the effects of deposit reserve rate the seigniorage income, if the deposit reserve rate to 0% from rising to 100%, Seigniorage revenues will show upward trend after the first drop, due to a country in Adjust the deposit reserve rate, change direction and change range is smaller, which makes the relationship between the deposit reserve ratio and Seigniorage in negative related areas. Therefore in the formulation of relevant recommendations for future monetary policy, but also consider the deposit reserve rate changes on tax revenue by strengthening the mint, open market operation, using a variety of collocation monetary policy tools to promote China's economy more stable and good operation.

【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F822.0;F812.42

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