中国银行业“暴利”分析及展望

发布时间：2018-01-03 15:35

本文关键词：中国银行业“暴利”分析及展望　出处：《西南财经大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：中国银行业存不存在“暴利”?这样的争论和质疑近年一直是金融界的热门话题之一。这个问题也一直引起社会各界的激烈争论与强烈关注。在最近的“两会”期间,中国著名经济学家厉以宁指出,2013年中国经济最大的风险来自金融业。世界经济增长放缓、国际贸易增速回落；中国经济改制转型、由重数据向重质量转变；国际金融竞争加剧化、国内融资渠道多元化、国内外利率市场化,这一系列因素都深刻地影响我国的商业银行。所以,研究“暴利”存在与否及其程度具有现实而深远的意义。最新统计数据显示,2012年我国商业银行累计实现净利润1.24万亿元,连续4年创历史新高。这也再次刷新了中国银行业的利润纪录,使得2012年成为银行业史上最赚钱的一年。数据同时显示,我国商业银行净利润同比增长18.9%,相较于2011年的39.3%、2010年的34.5%大幅回落,已经显现出盈利能力下滑的趋势。中国银行业有没有“暴利”?不同的人,不同的利益集团,站在不同的角度会得出不同的结论,甚至是完全相反的结论。本文用大量的客观事实及详实的数据说明中国银行业盈利能力方面的“暴利”存在与否。同时来展现中国的商业银行盈利能力方面“暴利”的程度。一、考虑到金融业的时效性强、变化性快的特点,本文选取了最近三个会计年度的财务数据作为研究的对象,这样不仅紧扣金融的时代脉搏,也充分反映宏观经济运行对不同行业发展的客观事实。选用了总资产、总利润、净利润、净资产收益率、营业利润率等财务指标,这主要是因为他们对揭示“暴利水平”具有重要的说明意义,而且浅显易懂。通过“三大对比”：①我国16家上市商业银行与我国其他行业的“横向对比”,得出“暴利”不是在所有行业存在；②我国16家上市商业银行与香港、美国主要商业银行的“纵向对比”,得出“暴利”不是在所有经济体的商业银行存在；③我国16家上市商业银行与沪深所有上市公司的“合计对比”,其用于揭示“暴利”的程度。其方法是选取行业内资产规模基本稳定在前五位的公司,因为他们在行业内影响力大、竞争力强、赢利性高。用这些知名度高且赢利性强的优质公司与我国的商业银行做盈利能力对比,以此评判我国商业银行“暴利水平”就更具说服力。通过“三大对比”,我们可以看出我国商业银行确实存在“暴利”,其“暴利”程度无论是和我国其他行业相比,还是和香港、美国的同行业对比,以及沪深上市公司的合计对比都是比较突出的。二、在“暴利”分析的基础上,我们对商业银行的盈利风险控制和利润增长点的主要影响因素加以分析,从中反映出我国商业银行所面临的盈利风险以及机遇和挑战,从而为我国商业银行有效化解风险、保持稳定业绩、实现优质发展、逐步走向国际提供有益的参考,进而为实现加快金融业改革开放促进经济发展方式转变的目标(这是“十二五”对金融的要求目标)做出应有的贡献。在“暴利”因素及潜在风险因素分析的基础上,我们认识到,“暴利”是难以持久的,2012年我国银行业盈利增长率下降的趋势已初步显现。文中主要通过以下方面揭示潜在风险因素： ①我国商业银行净利息收入与香港、美国发达经济体的商业银行净利息收入占经营收入的比重相比较,通过对比,可以清楚地看出我国商业银行净利息收入占比过高,太过于依赖于传统的银行息差收入。同时也说明我国商业银行的其他业务发展规模不大,收入水平过低。这就容易产生系统性风险,一旦有系统风险发生就会导致行业利润普遍下降,甚至倒闭一家而影响整个银行业的高危风险。其次,可以看出我国商业银行的净利息收入占经营收入的比重整体基本呈下降趋势,而香港和美国的该比重却有升有降。从中可以说明我国商业银行的“暴利水平”是不可能长久和持续的,而提升手续费、佣金等其他非利息收入以增加利润抵御风险是我国商业银行的必由之路。 ②从房地产信贷规模进行分析,因为房地产信贷规模的高速扩张是我国商业银行近年来主要的利润增长点之一,也是主要风险之一。其核心风险是房地产产业是以牺牲长期经济增长来促进短期经济增长,是不可持续的。 ③从“影子银行”对我国商业银行利润的重要影响及其风险性进行分析。“影子银行”具有在经济平稳的时候,瓜分银行的利润;在经济转型或者面临风险的时候,将风险转嫁给银行的特性。“影子银行”对我国商业银行利润的影响归根到底是因为“影子银行”的绝大部分资金是来源于银行,其中尤以地下钱庄、高利贷和信托产品的本金兑付风险最为突出。 ④从宏观政策方面进行分析,分析的重点是“十八大”以后,从数量GDP到质量GDP和GEP,从粗放型到节约环保型,从重数量增长到以人为本的美丽中国建设执政理念及转变职能、优化结构、调整产能构思的经济转型对于我国银行业高盈利水平的影响。 ⑤从国际国内(如；欧债危机、全球货币量化宽松、人民币汇率等)其他方面分析。三、围绕上述问题,我们从商业银行的经营管理理论、主营业务等方面来探讨化解风险、增加利润的内容和方法。主要有中美主要银行营业收入来源的对比分析；负债业务及资产业务分析；网络银行业务分析：中间业务分析；国际业务分析；金融创新方面分析,从而得出优化资产结构、稳固传统业务、创新新型业务、培养储备人才、着眼长远发展是化解风险,增加利润的根本之道。世界经济增长放缓、国际贸易增速回落；中国经济改制转型,国际金融竞争加剧、国内融资渠道多元化、国内外利率市场化,这一系列因素都深刻地影响我国的商业银行。其影响已经显示出我国银行业利润高速增长的“暴利水平”已经日趋放缓,无论是来自于国外发达经济体的银行业发展经验,还是源自于国内经济高速增长中不同行业的发展历史,都证明垄断暴利是不可持续的。四、鉴于我国商业银行所面临的盈利能力增长速度放缓的趋势,我们对增长盈利控制风险进行了可行的系统性展望,古人云“塞翁失马焉知非福”,风险中面临着挑战,挑战中面临着危机,危机中蕴含着机遇。所以,本文提出了以下几个方面的结构优化和前景展望,内容主要有： (1)中国经济转型中的机遇 ①“美丽中国”的提出以及城镇化所带来的机遇。我国的城镇化率(指城镇人口占总人口的百分比)刚刚超过50%,而离欧美发达国家的80%还有20%以上的提升空间；按目前可比价格,城镇化率每提高1%,可以新增投资需求6-7万亿,相当出口产品9-10万亿；同时每1%农村人口转入城市,可以拉动消费1100-1300亿。投资-消费-出口,拉动经济增长的“三驾马车”,都获益匪浅,其意义不言而喻。提高城镇化不仅仅是促进经济增长的需要,同时城镇化是转方式、调结构、促改革的聚合点。一是有利于扩大内需和投资。二是有利于区域经济结构和产业结构的优化升级。三是促进户籍制度、土地制度、收入分配制度、社会保障制度、投融资体制、基本公共服务体制等多方面的配套改革。这样的战略机遇,我国商业银行当然要紧紧抓住,这不仅仅是金融的职能所在,而且其中蕴含着巨大的利润空间,正是我国商业银行实现利润最大化目标的有力推手。 ②结构改革职能转变带来经济发展中一些新的行业领域出现重大机遇。其中所涉及的一些主要领域：1.中央连续10年发布的“一号文件”中都聚焦“三农”,农业领域(土地确权、农村公共服务投资、提高农民收入等)所带来的重大机遇；2.国家成立国家海洋局(不单单是政府部门整合,剑指我国岛礁争端,其中建设海洋强国,发展海洋经济才是更为长远的考虑),“十二五”规划中,海洋经济目标很明确,到2015年海洋经济要占GDP的10%以上；3.环保领域,PM2.5研究检测数据的公布,以及去年冬天全国出现的长期多地雾霾天气,让国家和人民的环保意识普遍增强和空前提高,这将给环保领域产品升级,结构调整等带来巨大转变。这些行业领域的重要影响和后续配套改革将对我国银行业产生重要影响。 (2)金融创新方面,主要分析了金融思想领域的认识误区和创新以及目前我国金融创新的可行领域。(3)金融人才的培养和储备是未来商业银行发展中的难点,也是竞争中占领优势的制高点。(4)转变理念,从以“产品驱动”向以“客户驱动”转变。银行产品推销要满足客户需要,要根据市场环境变化而改变,为客户提供解决问题的方案和办法是银行的责任；银行要协调、调动各方面的资源为客户提供服务等。由于所研究的课题比较新,可供参考的文献并不多,以及本人水平的限制,文章中有些问题未能做深入探讨,文字、结构乃至研究方法都有值得推敲的地方,希望得到老师们的批评和指正!
[Abstract]:Chinese banking exists or not "profiteering"? Such arguments and questions in recent years has been one of the hot topics in the financial field. This problem has been hotly debated in all sectors of society and attention. In the recent "NPC and CPPCC" period, the famous economist Li Yining Chinese pointed out that in 2013 Chinese economy the biggest risk from the financial sector.
The slowdown in world economic growth, international trade growth rate dropped Chinese; economic restructuring, transformation from the data to the quality; the international financial competition, the diversification of financing channels, the domestic and foreign interest rate market, this series of factors have a profound impact on China's commercial bank. Therefore, research on the existence of "profiteering" and the degree of realistic and far-reaching significance.
The latest statistics show that in 2012 China's commercial banks total net profit of 1 trillion and 240 billion yuan, a record high for 4 consecutive years. It also once again refresh the China banking profit record, making 2012 the bank industry in the history of the most profitable year. The data also showed that China's commercial banks net profit rose 18.9% compared to 39.3% in 2011, 34.5% in 2010 fell sharply, has shown a decline in the profitability trend.
Chinese banks have "profiteering"? Different people, different interest groups, from different angles have different conclusions, or even completely opposite conclusions. In this paper, with a large number of facts and detailed data shows that China banking profitability "profits" at the same time to exist or not. Show Chinese commercial bank profitability "profiteering".
First, considering the timeliness of financial industry, changes of fast, this paper chooses the financial data of the last three fiscal year as the research object, which not only closely linked to the financial times, also reflects the macroeconomic objective facts of different industry development. The total assets, total profit, net profit, return on net assets, financial indicators of operating profit rate, this is mainly because they have important significance to reveal that the "profits", but also easy to understand. The "three big contrast: 16 listed commercial banks in China and other sectors of the" horizontal contrast "," profits obtained "not at all exist in the industry; the 16 listed commercial banks in China and the United States of Hongkong, the main commercial banks" longitudinal comparison ", that is not" profiteering "in all economies of commercial banks in China; the 16 The "aggregate comparison" between the listed commercial banks and all listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen has been used to reveal the degree of "profit".
The method is to select asset size within the industry is basically stable in the top five companies, because of their influence in the industry, strong competitiveness, profitability is high. Do the profitability compared with these high visibility and strong earnings quality, and the Commercial Bank of our country, in order to judge China's commercial banks' profits level "more convincing." three by contrast, we can see that there is indeed profiteering "of China's commercial banks, the degree of" profiteering "whether it is compared with other industries in China, or Hongkong, compared with the industry in the United States, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen listed companies are more prominent in total contrast.
Two, based on "profiteering" analysis, analyzed main influencing factors of our earnings risk control and profit growth point of commercial banks, reflecting China's commercial banks face the risk of profit as well as opportunities and challenges in China's commercial banks, so as to effectively resolve the risk, stable performance, achieve development of high quality, to provide a useful reference for the international, and accelerate the reform and opening up the financial sector to promote the transformation of the mode of economic development goals (this is "12th Five-Year" on the financial requirements of the target) and make due contributions.
Based on the analysis of the factors and potential risk factors, we realize that "profiteering" is not sustainable. In 2012, the trend of China's banking profit growth rate has initially appeared.
The our country Commercial Bank net interest income and Hongkong, the United States developed economies of the commercial bank net interest income accounted for the proportion of operating income compared, by comparison, we can clearly see that China's commercial banks net interest income ratio is too high, too dependent on traditional bank interest income. At the same time also shows that China's commercial the bank's business development, small scale, low income level. It is prone to systemic risk, once the system risk will lead to industry profits decline, even the failure of one of the whole Gao Weifeng banking risks. Secondly, we can see that the net interest income of commercial banks in China accounted for the proportion of the overall operating income a downward trend, while the proportion of Hongkong and the United States have decreased. From that of China's commercial banks' profits level "is not possible for a long time and sustained, and enhance Other non interest income, such as commission, commission and other non interest income, is the only way for Chinese commercial banks to resist risk.
The analysis from the real estate credit scale, because of the rapid expansion of the real estate credit scale of commercial banks in China in recent years, one of the major profit growth point, is one of the main risk. The risk is the core of real estate industry is to promote short-term economic growth at the expense of long-term economic growth is not sustainable.
The analysis from the "shadow banking" of China's commercial bank profit and risk. The influence of the "shadow banking" is when the economy is stable, divide the profits of banks; at the time of economic transformation or risk, risk characteristics to the bank. "Shadow banking" of China's commercial the bank profit after all is because the vast majority of shadow banking funds from the bank, especially in the underground banks, usury and trust products principal payment risk is most prominent.
The analysis from the macro policy, the analysis is focused on the "big eighteen", from GDP to GDP and GEP quality, from the extensive to the saving and environment-friendly, quantity growth to the beautiful China construction people-oriented governing philosophy and the transformation of functions, optimize the structure, adjustment of production can influence the economic transformation idea for our country the high level of profitability of the banking industry.
From the international and domestic (such as the European debt crisis, the global monetary quantitative easing, the RMB exchange rate, etc.) other aspects of analysis.
Three, we focus on the above problems, from the commercial bank management theory, the main business to explore such risks and increase profits. The contents and methods of comparative analysis are the main source of revenue for us bank liabilities business and assets business; analysis; analysis of network banking intermediary business analysis; international business analysis; the analysis of financial innovation, so that optimize the asset structure, stable traditional business and new business innovation, training of talents, focus on long-term development is the fundamental way to resolve the risk, to increase profit.
The slowdown in world economic growth, international trade growth rate dropped; China economic restructuring, worsening international financial competition, the diversification of financing channels, the domestic and foreign interest rate market, this series of factors have a profound impact on China's commercial banks. Its influence has shown rapid growth of China's banking industry "profiteering" has become increasingly slow down, whether the banking industry development experience from developed economies, or from the historical development of different industries the rapid growth of the domestic economy, that monopoly profits is not sustainable.
Four, in view of China's commercial banks face the profitability growth rate slowed the trend, we discussed the system feasible to control the risk of earnings growth, the ancients said "a blessing in disguise", the risk of facing challenges, the challenges facing the crisis, the crisis contains opportunities. Therefore, this dissertation puts forward prospect structure optimization and Prospect of the following is the main content:
(1) opportunities in China's economic transformation
"Beautiful Chinese" is put forward and the opportunity of urbanization. The urbanization rate in China (urban population refers to the percentage of the total population) just over 50%, from the developed countries of Europe and more than 20% of the 80% promotion space; according to the current price, the urbanization rate increased by 1% per can. New investment demand 6-7 trillion, equivalent exports 9-10 trillion; at the same time, each of the 1% rural population into the city, can stimulate consumption of 1100-1300 million. The investment consumption and export, to promote economic growth in the "three carriages", have benefited, its meaning is self-evident.
To improve the urbanization is not only the need to promote economic growth, and urbanization is the transfer mode, adjust the structure, aggregation point to promote reform. One is conducive to the expansion of domestic demand and investment. Two is conducive to the optimization of regional economic structure and industrial structure upgrade. The three is to promote the household registration system, land system, income distribution system, social security system, investment and financing system reform, the basic public service system and other aspects of the strategic opportunity. So, China's commercial banks should seize, this is not only the financial functions, which contains a huge profit space, is a powerful force for Chinese commercial banks to realize the profit maximization.
The change of structure reform brings some new industries in the economic development of major opportunities. Some of the main areas involved: 1. central 10 consecutive years issued the document will focus on the "three rural" (agriculture land ownership, rural public service investment, increasing the income of peasants) major opportunities the 2. countries; the establishment of the State Oceanic Administration (not only is the government department at China's integration, reefs disputes, including construction of marine power, the development of marine economy is a more long-term consideration), "12th Five-Year" plan, the marine economy has a clear goal, more than 2015 to marine economy accounts for 10% of GDP; 3. in the field of environmental protection, PM2.5 announced on testing data, and the last winter appears long more haze, let the country and the people's awareness of environmental protection and generally enhance the unprecedented increase, which will give the field of environmental protection. The important impact of these industries and the follow-up reforms will have an important impact on our banking industry.
(2) financial innovation, mainly analyzes the financial ideology misunderstanding and innovation and the financial innovation in China is feasible. (3) training and reserve talent is the financial difficulties in the future in the development of commercial banks, also occupied the advantage of market competition. (4) to change the idea, from the "products drive" to "customer driven. To satisfy the customer needs to sell bank products, to change according to the changing market environment, to provide customers with solutions and solutions to the problem is the responsibility of the bank; bank to coordinate, mobilize resources to provide services to customers.
Because the research subjects are relatively new, there are not many references available, as well as the limitation of my level. Some problems in the article have not been explored thoroughly. There are worth to be deliberate in the text, structure and research methods, hoping to get the criticism and correction of teachers.

【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.3;F830.42

【参考文献】