货币国际地位影响因素研究及其对人民币国际化的启示

发布时间：2018-01-04 00:22

本文关键词：货币国际地位影响因素研究及其对人民币国际化的启示　出处：《华东师范大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：20世纪80年代以来,在牙买加体系下,美元失去了其绝对垄断地位,欧元对美元发起冲击,国际货币体系逐渐呈现出多元化的趋势,货币国际化与国际货币体系也成为了各国政府和学者所重点关注的经济与政治热点。在这样的大背景下,随着中国经济的崛起以及其他方面条件的逐渐成熟,中国也在身体力行地积极推进着人民币的国际化进程,并盼望着人民币早日能够在国际舞台上扮演重要角色。1996年中国实现经常项目下的人民币可兑换,从那时起,可以说人民币的国际化进程时刻起就拉开了序幕,此后,随着人民币跨境结算地区范围的不断扩大以及境外直接投资人民币结算试点的开放,国际化进程不断向前推进,并且取得了令人瞩目的成绩。但是,作为当今世界第二大经济体与第二大贸易国,人民币的国际地位仍与中国经济地位极不相符。因此,本文着眼于研究影响一国货币国际地位的各种因素,力图为促进人民币成为重要的国际货币提供一定的建议,使人民币国际化的前进方向更为明确。为了进行研究,首先应明确什么是货币的国际地位,怎么度量货币的国际地位,对于这一点,目前学术界尚无定论,本文选择使用主成分分析法,即首先建造包含五个细分指标的体系以衡量国际货币的不同职能,再使用主成分分析法将这些指标“合并”从而获得一个能够综合体现货币国际地位的指标。随后,根据相关文献研究与理论分析,本文又选择了一国的经济实力(以GDP份额为代表指标)、贸易地位(以商品进出口份额为代表指标)、币值特征(分为币值大小以及其稳定性与收益性,其中前两者用实际有效汇率及其变动为代表指标)、金融市场发达程度(以债券发行量份额与银行业国外资产头寸份额为代表指标)、货币国际地位的历史惯性(以货币国际地位的一阶滞后变量为代表指标)等指标,并研究了其与货币国际地位之间的理论关系、相关关系与实证关系,其中,实证部分包括面板数据分析以及各国的时间序列分析。样本范围为美国、英国、日本以及欧元区等四个国家或地区的1999年第一季度至2012年第二季度的季度数据。在实证研究方面,本文得出结论：根据时间序列分析,对各国货币有重要直接影响的因素及其发挥的作用的大小是略有不同的,但是总体来看,如果用GDP大小与商品贸易额这两个经济指标来共同表示实体经济规模的话,可以发现,无论对哪种货币,实体经济规模、金融市场的发达程度以及历史粘滞性都是其国际地位的重要的正向的影响因素,而与理论分析不同的是,货币币值的各项特征都并没有发挥显著的直接的作用；根据面板数据分析,对货币国际地位影响显著的因素按影响力从大到小排列依次为GDP规模、历史粘滞性、贸易规模、债券市场规模、银行业国外资产头寸规模以及实际有效汇率的大小,而且除最后一个因素以外,这些影响都是正向的,另外,货币币值的收益性以及稳定性没有表现出显著的作用。最后,本文介绍了人民币国际化的现状,并结合研究结论阐述了人民币国际化所面临的有利条件与不利因素,从而提出了推进人民币国际化进程的建议：建立经济持续健康增长的机制；放松资本管制,进一步完善汇率形成机制；进一步开放并完善整个金融体系；积极健康拓展对外贸易,鼓励企业对外投资。
[Abstract]:Since 1980s, under the Jamaica system, the dollar has lost its monopoly position to attack the euro dollar, the international monetary system is gradually showing a trend of diversification, currency internationalization and international monetary system has become the focus of economic and political governments and scholars attention. In this context, with the rise of China economic and other conditions gradually mature, Chinese also earnestly and actively promote the internationalization of RMB, and looking forward to an early RMB in the international arena play China achieved under the current account convertibility of the RMB has an important role in.1996, from then on, can be said that the process of internationalization of the RMB has kicked off the moment and since then, with the RMB cross-border settlement area continues to expand and foreign direct investment in RMB clearing pilot. On the internationalization process is advancing, and has made remarkable achievements. However, as one of the world's second largest economy and second largest trading country, the international status of the RMB is still very inconsistent with the economic status of Chinese. Therefore, this paper focuses on the influence of various factors on a currency's international status, and tries to provide some suggestions an important international currency to promote RMB to be the direction, the internationalization of the RMB is more clear.
For the study, first of all should be clear what is the currency's international status, how to measure the currency's international status, for this, inconclusive current academia, this paper selected using a principal component analysis of different functions of the first building contains five sub indicators to measure the international monetary system, and then use principal component analysis method these indicators will be merged to obtain a comprehensive reflection of the currency's international status indicators.
Then, according to the research and theoretical analysis of related literature, this paper chose the economic strength of a country (with GDP as the representative of share index), trade status (in the import and export of goods on behalf of share index), currency characteristics (divided into the value size and its stability and profitability, the first two with the real effective exchange rate and change as the representative index), the development of financial market (by bond issuance and bank share share of foreign asset position indicators), the currency's international status (with historical inertia lag variable order a currency's international status as the representative index) and other indicators, and to study the relationship between the theory and the currency's international status, correlation and positive relationship, which includes empirical analysis of panel data analysis and the time series. The sample range for the United States, Britain, Japan and the euro zone and other four countries or regions in 1999 Quarterly data from the first quarter to the second quarter of 2012.
In the empirical research, this paper draws the conclusion: according to the analysis of time series factors have important direct impact on the national currency and the role of the size is slightly different, but generally speaking, if the GDP size and commodity trade volume of the two economic indicators to represent real economy scale, can be found, no matter what kind of currency, the size of the real economy, financial market development level and historical viscosity are all factors in the international status of the important positive effect, and theoretical analysis is different, the value of the currency features all did not play a significant direct effect; according to the analysis of panel data, the influence of the currency's international status according to the influence factors in descending order of GDP scale, the history of viscosity, the trade scale, the size of the bond market, the position of foreign assets scale of banking industry and the actual In addition to the last factor, the effective exchange rate is positive. In addition, the profitability and stability of the currency do not play a significant role.
Finally, this paper introduces the current situation of RMB internationalization, favorable conditions and combined with the research results described the internationalization of the RMB faced with unfavorable factors, and puts forward the suggestions: promoting the internationalization of the RMB to establish the mechanism of sustained and healthy economic growth; relaxation of capital controls, to further improve the exchange rate formation mechanism; to further open up and improve the financial system actively; healthy development of foreign trade, encourage foreign investment enterprises.

【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.6

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