人民币实际有效汇率波动对我国与东盟六国贸易收支的影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-04 09:43

本文关键词：人民币实际有效汇率波动对我国与东盟六国贸易收支的影响研究　出处：《天津财经大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在国际贸易中最重要的调节杠杆是汇率,汇率变动是影响国际收支的重要因素之一同时,汇率变动影响贸易收支的研究也一直是国际金融学界研究的热点和难点问题之一当前我国面临着由贸易收支顺差积累的巨额国际储备和巨大人民币升值压力,所以本文选择当前经济热点问题——人民币汇率波动对我国贸易收支的问题为切入点,参考国内外相关文献,对人民币汇率波动对我国与东盟贸易收支的影响进行研究。本文拟在理论、数理统计和实证角度来研究自2005年7月21日汇改以来人民币实际有效汇率波动对我国与东盟贸易收支的影响,主要选取东盟中六国(即印度尼西亚、马来西亚、新加坡、越南、泰国和菲律宾)为代表进行研究。目前东盟已超越日本成为中国第三大贸易伙伴,中国也是东盟的第一大贸易伙伴,因此东盟在中国对外贸易中占有重要地位。本文采用GARCH模型、最小二乘估计法和面板模型分析了人民币实际有效汇率指数波动和我国与东盟六国贸易收支状况。由GARCH模型测得人民币实际有效汇率指数的波动性具有很高的持续性,当人民币实际有效汇率指数受到冲击时,在短期内难以消除。本文采取2005年第一季度至2012年第四季度的数据,通过最小二乘估计法所得的我国与东盟六国的进出口贸易方程,进一步采用面板模型在整体上研究我国与东盟六国贸易收支总量的关系,得到我国与东盟六国的贸易收支受到人民币实际有效汇率波动的影响较大的结论。通过实证研究分析的结论,得知人民币实际有效汇率升高(即人民币升值),会缩小我国贸易收支顺差,人民币实际有效汇率波动对中国与东盟六国的贸易收支产生国别效应。对中国而言,在努力扩大出口促进经济增长的同时应该兼顾国家发展战略,可采取的措施有完善汇率政策、对贸易政策的调整和对产业政策的调整等。
[Abstract]:The most important regulating lever in international trade is the exchange rate, and the exchange rate change is one of the important factors affecting the balance of payments at the same time. The research on the effect of exchange rate change on trade balance has always been one of the hot and difficult issues in international financial circles. At present, our country is faced with huge international reserves accumulated by trade balance surplus and huge pressure of RMB appreciation. So this article chooses the current economic hot issue-RMB exchange rate fluctuation to our country trade income and expenditure question as the breakthrough point, consults the domestic and foreign related literature. This paper studies the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on the trade balance between China and ASEAN. From the point of view of mathematical statistics and empirical analysis, this paper studies the effect of RMB real effective exchange rate fluctuation on the trade balance between China and ASEAN since the exchange rate reform in July 21st 2005, and mainly selects six ASEAN countries (namely Indonesia). ASEAN has overtaken Japan as China's third largest trading partner and China is ASEAN's largest trading partner. So ASEAN occupies an important position in China's foreign trade. GARCH model is used in this paper. The volatility of RMB real effective exchange rate index and the trade balance between China and ASEAN are analyzed by least square estimation method and panel model. The volatility of RMB real effective exchange rate index is obtained by GARCH model. High persistence. When the real effective exchange rate index of RMB is hit, it is difficult to eliminate in the short term. This paper adopts the data from in the first quarter of 2005 to in the fourth quarter of 2012. Through the least square estimation of the import and export trade equation between China and ASEAN six countries, the panel model is used to study the overall relationship between China and ASEAN six countries' total trade balance. It is concluded that the trade balance between China and ASEAN countries is greatly affected by the fluctuation of RMB real effective exchange rate. Through the conclusion of the empirical analysis, we know that the increase of the real effective exchange rate of RMB (that is, the appreciation of RMB) will reduce the surplus of China's trade balance. The fluctuation of the real effective exchange rate of RMB has a country-specific effect on the trade balance between China and the six ASEAN countries. For China, the national development strategy should be taken into account while trying to expand exports to promote economic growth. Some measures can be taken, such as perfecting exchange rate policy, adjusting trade policy and adjusting industrial policy.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.7

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