中国外汇储备损益与人民币汇率制度改革

发布时间：2018-01-07 00:22

本文关键词：中国外汇储备损益与人民币汇率制度改革　出处：《上海金融》2011年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文在系统总结中国外汇储备损益研究视角的基础上,提出央行"实际汇兑损益"的崭新视角,并以此为切入点,研究了中国外汇储备损益与人民币汇率调整的关系问题。本文借助国家资产负债表构建了双顺差分析模型,并通过升值情景模拟分析,得出结论:在汇率制度改革过程中,既有的汇率错位和通常伴随的汇率超调往往导致了央行发生"实际汇兑损益",损失量与兑换资金规模、汇率错位程度成比例,由此产生的汇兑损益可能导致对国家外汇储备的"非对称分配"。鉴于目前理论与实证研究不支持人民币被大幅低估的观点,货币当局应关注和避免因汇率错位及汇率超调产生的外汇储备汇兑损失;对于人民币的汇率调整应基于学理、结合实际,研究出一套准确客观的算法体系,以动态界定汇率合理区间;而从中长期考虑,需将汇率制度改革作为系统工程来推进。针对上述结论,本文提出四方面政策建议。
[Abstract]:Based on the systematic summary of Chinese foreign exchange reserves profit perspective, put forward a new perspective of the central bank's actual exchange gains and losses, and as the starting point, studies the relationship between profit and loss Chinese foreign exchange reserves and the adjustment of the RMB exchange rate. With the help of the double surplus to build the national balance sheet analysis model, and through the appreciation of scenario analysis conclusion: in the process, the exchange rate system reform, the existing exchange rate misalignment and is usually accompanied by the exchange rate overshooting often leads to the central bank's actual exchange profit, loss and exchange of funds, the exchange rate misalignment in proportion, the resulting exchange gains and losses may lead to the country's foreign exchange reserves "asymmetric distribution". In view of the current theoretical and empirical research does not support the RMB is significantly undervalued, the monetary authorities should pay attention to and avoid foreign exchange reserve and exchange rate misalignment of exchange rate overshooting produces The preparation for the exchange rate losses; adjustment of RMB exchange rate should be based on the theory, combined with the actual research, a set of accurate and objective algorithm system, to define a reasonable range of dynamic exchange rate; from the long-term consideration, the exchange rate system reform as a project to advance. In view of the above conclusions, this paper put forward four policy recommendations.

【作者单位】：中国人民大学经济学院;
【基金】：中国人民大学2011年度研究生科学研究基金项目(11XNH058)
【分类号】：F832.6
【正文快照】： 自2010年6月19日中国重启汇改以来,人民币兑美元升值幅度已近10%,且官方外汇储备规模急剧扩张。对此,有专家指出:我国央行持有的大量外汇储备面临巨额汇兑损失;而另一部分专家则认为:人民币兑美元汇率变动仅是账面价值变动,并不直接影响外储的对外实际购买力。本文针对上述问

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