中国对外贸易差额与货币供给关系研究

发布时间：2018-01-10 05:01

本文关键词：中国对外贸易差额与货币供给关系研究　出处：《湖南大学》2013年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来，中国对外贸易高速发展，1994年前对外贸易呈逆差与顺差交错出现的特征，1994年后中国对外贸易持续顺差。中国由“双缺口”型国家逐步转变成“反向双缺口”型国家，中国国内储蓄过剩、对外贸易顺差持续增加。随着贸易顺差持续增加和外汇储备不断累积，中国货币供应量快速增长，货币化率也由1978年的31.8%上升到2012年的187.58%。与此同时，外汇占款替代商业银行再贷款成为基础货币投放的主要渠道，改变了货币供给机制。1994到2012年间，商业银行再贷款在基础货币中所占比重从60.70%下降到了6.62%，而外汇占款在基础货币中所占比重从26.03%上升到了93.79%。基于宏观经济学基本模型分析表明，对外贸易差额与货币供给相互作用，且在不同特定条件下，两者之间相互影响的程度不同。嵌入人口结构变动的分析表明，人口结构变动将导致居民跨期消费决策的前提条件改变，并使得经济增长偏向当期消费品，推动贸易顺差的增长，进而影响货币供给。以1991-2010年中国及全球22个主要经济体的国别面板数据为样本，运用截面加权广义最小二乘法进行计量检验，证实贸易伙伴国国民收入水平、中国国民收入水平、贸易伙伴国一般物价水平、人民币名义汇率以及前期外贸差额等因素对中国对外贸易差额产生影响。以中国1996年1月至2011年12月的月度数据为样本进行计量检验，证实在2009年1月之前，中国对外贸易差额对广义货币供给、狭义货币供给、流通中现金具有显著的影响，2009年1月-2011年12月间短期内贸易差额的变化明显地推动了流通中现金的变化。以包括中国在内的15个国家和地区的1991-2010年国别面板数据为样本进行计量分析，证实贸易差额与货币供给之间不仅存在长期稳定的均衡关系，而且贸易差额的变化在一定程度上推动了广义货币、狭义货币的变化；短期内，贸易差额与广义货币具有共同的变化趋势。以1989-2010年中国大陆30个省级面板数据及1989-2010年全球20个主要经济体的国别面板数据为样本，建立面板协整和面板误差修正模型进行计量检验，，证实劳动年龄人口比重对贸易差额的长期影响和短期影响均为正，且相对于世界主要20个经济体，中国劳动年龄人口比重对贸易差额的短期影响更为显著。以1989-2010年中国省级面板数据和世界18个主要经济体的国别面板数据为样本，设定包含人口结构与对外贸易差额交互项的回归方程，进行计量检验，证实劳动年龄人口是影响货币供给的主要因素，而且对外贸易顺差越大，劳动年龄人口比重增加会使货币供给增加越多。当经济过热时，中央银行可确立浮动的汇率目标，以减缓贸易收支所带来的货币供给的扩张，缓解国内通货膨胀的压力，维护国内市场的均衡。当经济增长速度减缓时，中央银行可确立有管理的浮动汇率目标，一方面可以维持贸易顺差，另一方面可以保持货币供给的扩张，促进国内产出的增加和国民收入水平的提高，从而保障经济持续稳定的增长。并在适宜时期内适当调整人口生育政策，避免人口结构变化带来的贸易收支问题。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, the rapid development of Chinese foreign trade before 1994, foreign trade deficit and a surplus of staggered characteristics, foreign trade surplus China after 1994. Chinese by "double gap" country gradually transformed into "double reverse gap" state, Chinese domestic savings surplus, foreign trade surplus continued to increase.
With the continuous increase of trade surplus and foreign exchange reserves continue to accumulate, the rapid growth of China money supply, currency rate has increased from 31.8% in 1978 to 187.58%. in 2012 at the same time, foreign exchange to replace the commercial bank loans become the main channel of base money, change the.1994 money supply mechanism 2012, commercial bank loans and in the monetary base in proportion decreased from 60.70% to 6.62%, while the foreign exchange accounts for the monetary base in proportion rose from 26.03% to 93.79%.
The basic model of macro economics analysis shows that based on the balance of trade and currency supply, interaction, and in different specific conditions, the interaction between different levels. Analysis of changes in embedded population structure showed that demographic changes will lead to changes in conditions of residents' intertemporal consumption decisions, and makes the economic growth to the current consumer goods to promote the growth of trade surplus, thereby affecting the money supply.
The country panel data of 1991-2010 Chinese and the world's 22 major economies as samples, using the weighted generalized least squares method for cross section measurement test, confirmed that the trading partners Chinese the level of national income, the level of national income, trading partners in the general price level, the RMB nominal exchange rate and the foreign trade balance and other factors Chinese balance on international trade the monthly data Chinese. From January 1996 to December 2011 for the measurement of test samples, confirmed before January 2009, Chinese trade balance on the broad money supply, narrow money supply, has significant influence on the cash in circulation, January 2009 -2011 year in December between the short term trade balance change significantly promoted the change of cash in circulation. In 15 countries and regions including Chinese, 1991-2010 country panel data as sample analysis, certificate There is not only a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the real trade balance and the money supply, but also to a certain extent, the change of the trade balance promotes the change of the broad currency and the narrow money. In the short run, the trade gap has a common trend with the broad money.
In China, country panel data of 30 years 1989-2010 years and 1989-2010 provincial panel data of 20 major economies in the world as a sample, a panel cointegration and panel error correction model of measurement test, confirmed that the long-term effects of the proportion of working age population on the trade balance and short-term effects are positive, and compared with the world's 20 major economies the body, the short-term impact of the proportion of labor age population China on the trade balance is more significant. The country panel data of 18 major economies 1989-2010 Chinese provincial panel data and the world as a sample, the set contains the regression equation of population structure and the balance of trade interaction, empirically, that the working age population is the main factor the impact of monetary supply, and foreign trade surplus is greater, the proportion of working age population increase in the money supply will increase more.
When the economy is overheating, the central bank can establish floating exchange rate target, in order to reduce the trade balance caused by the expansion of the money supply, alleviate the pressure of domestic inflation, maintain domestic market equilibrium. When economic growth slowed down, the central bank can establish a managed floating exchange rate target, on the one hand to maintain a trade surplus, the other on the one hand can keep the money supply expansion, increase domestic output and raise the level of national income, so as to ensure the sustained and stable economic growth. And in the appropriate period adjust fertility policy, avoid trade balance problems caused the change of population structure.

【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F752;F822.2

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