人民币内外价值偏离的原因及对我国经济的影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-12 12:35

本文关键词：人民币内外价值偏离的原因及对我国经济的影响研究　出处：《浙江大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：按照购买力平价理论,一国货币的对外价值和对内价值应该呈同方向变动。一般而言,货币的对外价值以名义有效汇率表示,对内价值以国内一般物价表示,所以一国货币名义有效汇率升值的同时国内一般物价应下降,反之亦然。基于近几年我国人民币汇率及国内CPI、资产价格的表现,发现人民币存在对外升值对内贬值的货币现象,这种内外价值的偏离不符合经济学经典理论。在对人民币外升内贬的现象进行深入研究前,首先需要了解各个时期人民币内外价值的走向,并探讨国际上其他国家是否存在此种货币现象。在此基础上,开始具体分析出现人民币外升内贬现象的原因,以及对我国经济的影响。本文首先对1978年至今的人民币内外价值走势进行了梳理,将人民币名义有效汇率和CPI、资产价格表现进行了归纳整理并分成了8个时间段,发现2个时期中存在人民币外升内贬的现象。随后通过对32个发达国家和10个新兴经济体国家货币的月度名义有效汇率和CPI数据进行作图分析,发现货币外升内贬的现象也存在于其他国家,发达国家货币内外价值偏离多发生于上世纪80年代至90年代,而新兴经济体国家货币则发生于上世纪90年代后。接着,本文针对我国人民币外升内贬的货币现象进行了直接原因和深层原因分析,认为人民币升值预期、货币供应量、国际收支持续双顺差和经济增长直接作用于人民币内外价值偏离,而涉外经济体制不对称、生产要素价格长期被低估、经济发展失衡和购买力理论的假设限制是隐含在背后的深层原因。对于国际收支双顺差原因,本文从外汇储备的角度进行了实证分析,发现人民币名义有效汇率与CPI之间存在相互影响,而外汇储备在大于9个月的长期内对人民币名义有效汇率有正向作用,对CPI的影响则通过货币供应量间接发生。然后本文分析了人民币外升内贬对我国经济的影响。通过研究认为人民币外升内贬对包括进出口贸易、外商直接投资、出口企业利润、就业和经济增长等方面的宏观经济有不利影响.而且容易诱发国际游资的冲击,并对我国货币政策的实施带来挑战。最后根据上述分析,本文给出了一定的政策建议。本文的主要研究成果有:(1)对人民币内外价值走向按照时间进行了归纳整理,对各个国家货币的内外价值进行了比较,发现外升内贬并不单单存在于中国.这给我国的政策制定提供了经验教训。(2)分析了人民币外升内贬的直接原因和深层原因,并从国际收支视角进行了实证分析。(3)人民币外升内贬对我国经济的影响弊大于利,需要制定政策来应对。
[Abstract]:According to purchasing power parity theory, the external and internal value of a country's currency should change in the same direction. Generally speaking, the external value of a currency is expressed as a nominal effective exchange rate, and the internal value is expressed as a general domestic price. Therefore, the nominal effective exchange rate of a country's currency appreciation should be accompanied by a decline in domestic general prices, and vice versa. Based on China's RMB exchange rate and domestic CPI in recent years, the performance of asset prices. It is found that there is a currency phenomenon of external appreciation and internal devaluation of RMB, and this deviation of internal and external value does not accord with the classical theory of economics. Before the in-depth study of the phenomenon of internal and external appreciation of RMB. First of all, it is necessary to understand the trend of the internal and external value of RMB in each period, and to explore whether there is such a currency phenomenon in other countries in the world. And the impact on our economy. In this paper, the trend of RMB internal and external value since 1978 has been combed, and the nominal effective exchange rate, CPI and asset price performance of RMB have been summarized and sorted out and divided into 8 time periods. It is found that there is a phenomenon of RMB outward appreciation and inward depreciation in two periods. Then the monthly nominal effective exchange rate and CPI data of 32 developed countries and 10 emerging economies are analyzed. It is found that the phenomenon of currency rise and decline also exists in other countries, and the deviation of the value inside and outside the currency of developed countries mostly occurred from -20s to 90s. The currency of emerging economies occurred after -10s. Then, this paper analyzes the direct causes and deep causes of the rise and fall of RMB in China, and points out that the appreciation of RMB is expected. Money supply, balance of payments and economic growth directly affect the internal and external value of RMB deviation, while the foreign economic system is asymmetric, the factor of production price has been underestimated for a long time. The unbalance of economic development and the hypothetical limitation of purchasing power theory are the underlying reasons. For the double surplus of balance of payments, this paper makes an empirical analysis from the perspective of foreign exchange reserves. It is found that there is interaction between the nominal effective exchange rate of RMB and CPI, and the foreign exchange reserve has a positive effect on the nominal effective exchange rate of RMB in a long period of more than 9 months. The impact on CPI occurs indirectly through the money supply. Then this paper analyzes the impact of RMB external appreciation and internal devaluation on China's economy. Through the research, the author thinks that the external appreciation and internal devaluation of RMB includes import and export trade. Foreign direct investment, export enterprise profits, employment and economic growth and other aspects of macroeconomic impact, and easy to induce the impact of international hot money. Finally, according to the above analysis, this paper gives some policy suggestions. The main research results of this paper are as follows: (1) the internal and external value trend of RMB is summarized and sorted according to time, and the internal and external value of each country's currency is compared. It is found that excursion does not exist only in China, which provides experience and lessons for China's policy making.) it analyzes the direct and deep causes of RMB excursion. From the perspective of balance of payments, the author makes an empirical analysis. 3) the impact of internal and external devaluation of RMB on China's economy is more harmful than good, so it is necessary to formulate policies to deal with it.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.6;F124;F224

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