我国货币供应量M1M2剪刀差与通货膨胀相关关系的实证及应用分析

发布时间：2018-01-12 17:25

本文关键词：我国货币供应量M1M2剪刀差与通货膨胀相关关系的实证及应用分析　出处：《青岛科技大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文通过阐述货币供应量以及货币供应结构对宏观经济的影响,分析探讨货币供应结构变化与通货膨胀现象的对应关系,从而研究以货币供应量结构变化预测通货膨胀率趋势的可行性和可靠性,为中央银行事先制定和执行货币政策提供参考。作者通过实证分析和数据模型分析方法对M1M2剪刀差与通货膨胀率(CPI)的相关关系进行验证,证明了： 1、货币供应量与通货膨胀率之间存在密切的相关关系,但货币供应量指标对作为货币政策中介目标的作用在逐渐下降。 2、回顾历史,论证了货币供应结构变化与通货膨胀率变动,尤其是周期性的变动趋势有着明显的前后关系。 3、通过分析货币政策变化对货币供应结构的影响,发现了货币供应结构的变化反映了经济运行中客观变化,在一定程度上是市场的“自发行为”。 4、通过实证分析,证明了M1M2剪刀差与CPI有着密切的相关关系,二者具有长期的均衡关系,能够以线性回归的方式得到验证。M1M2指标对CPI产生影响的长期性,决定了它能够为恶性通胀或通缩提供明显的预警信号,为货币政策提前干预创造时机。本文的实践意义在于,通过理论分析和数据论证,M1M2剪刀差指标可以作为预测通货膨胀率变动趋势的一个先行指标,通过密切关注并监测M1M2剪刀差的变动趋势,可以提前对未来物价走势进行预测,从而及时调整货币政策的方向和力度,完善中央银行逆周期宏观调控行为。
[Abstract]:This paper analyzes the relationship between the change of money supply structure and the phenomenon of inflation by expounding the influence of money supply and the structure of money supply on the macro economy. Therefore, the feasibility and reliability of predicting the trend of inflation with the change of the structure of money supply are studied. The author verifies the correlation between M1M2 scissors difference and inflation rate (CPI) by empirical analysis and data model analysis. Proved: 1. There is a close correlation between money supply and inflation rate, but the effect of money supply index on the intermediate target of monetary policy is decreasing gradually. 2. Reviewing the history, it is proved that the change of money supply structure is closely related to the change of inflation rate, especially the trend of cyclical change. 3. By analyzing the influence of the change of monetary policy on the structure of money supply, it is found that the change of the structure of money supply reflects the objective changes in economic operation, and to some extent is the "spontaneous behavior" of the market. 4. Through the empirical analysis, it is proved that the M1M2 scissors difference has a close correlation with CPI, and they have a long-term equilibrium relationship. The long-term effect of the .M1M2 index on CPI can be verified by linear regression, which determines that it can provide a clear warning signal for hyperinflation or deflation. Create opportunities for early intervention in monetary policy. The practical significance of this paper lies in the theoretical analysis and data proof that the M1M2 scissors difference index can be used as a leading indicator to predict the trend of inflation rate change. By paying close attention to and monitoring the change trend of M1M2 scissors difference, we can forecast the future price trend in advance and adjust the direction and intensity of monetary policy in time. We will improve the countercyclical macro-control behavior of central banks.
【学位授予单位】：青岛科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F822.2;F822.5

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