我国货币政策中介目标的选择研究

发布时间：2018-01-13 03:03

本文关键词：我国货币政策中介目标的选择研究　出处：《石河子大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

更多相关文章： 中介目标 可测性 可控性 相关性

【摘要】：货币政策作为校正宏观经济层面失灵的一种主要的经济政策，其操作框架主要包括四个部分：货币政策工具、操作目标、中介目标和最终目标。由于货币政策作用机理具有滞后性与动态性，货币政策工具不能直接对最终目标产生影响，而是要通过一些能够迅速反映经济状况变化的变量来衡量货币政策的效果，以便货币当局及时修正货币政策操作，这组变量即是货币政策的中介目标．因此,货币政策中介目标选择的恰当与否对于一国的货币政策的效果有着重要的经济意义。本文首先明确了我国货币政策中介目标研究的背景和意义，对货币政策中介目标的定义和选择标准做了界定，在借鉴货币政策中介目标选择标准的基础上，对当前我国现阶段的货币政策中介目标——货币供应量做了检验.由于货币供应量作为中介目标的有效性值得怀疑,因此基于我国的国情，探讨了我国货币政策中介目标变更的可行性。当前现阶段，我国并不具备变更中介目标的可行性，应继续采用货币供应量作为货币政策的中介目标，因此从金融创新、汇率制度和货币需求函数的稳定性角度分析了货币供应量作为中介目标适宜性下降的原因。最后根据原因的分析，提出相应的对策建议，以提高货币供应量作为货币政策中介目标的有效性。根据文章的写作思路，得出以下主要结论：货币供应量作为我国货币政策中介目标的有效性在逐步下降，其可测性和可控性较差，与最终目标的相关性程度不高;目前我国的经济金融环境使得我国并不具备变更中介目标的条件。我国在目前尚不能使采用利率和通胀目标制，同时由于社会融资规模在统计上的固有缺陷和其可控性较差，这一指标也不能作为货币政策的中介目标；从长远来看，由于我国经济金融形势的不断变化，我国货币政策的中介目标势必要发生调整，但是短期内，还应当继续采用货币供应量作为我国货币政策的中介目标，同时要做好相应的配套措施：提高央行的独立性，增强汇率制度的灵活性，扩大货币供应量的统计口径，采用新的货币数量指标，，从而提高货币供应量作为中介目标的有效性。
[Abstract]:Monetary policy as a major economic policy to correct macroeconomic failure, its operational framework mainly consists of four parts: monetary policy tools, operational objectives. Because the mechanism of monetary policy is lagging and dynamic, monetary policy tools can not directly affect the final goal. It is necessary to measure the effect of monetary policy through some variables which can reflect the change of economic situation quickly, so that the monetary authority can correct the operation of monetary policy in time. This set of variables is the intermediate target of monetary policy. Whether the intermediate target of monetary policy is appropriate or not is of great economic significance to the effect of monetary policy of a country. Firstly, this paper defines the background and significance of the study on the intermediate target of monetary policy in China, and defines the definition and selection criteria of the intermediate target of monetary policy, on the basis of drawing lessons from the criteria for the selection of the intermediate target of monetary policy. This paper tests the intermediate target of monetary policy in our country at present-money supply. Because the validity of money supply as intermediary target is doubtful, it is based on the situation of our country. This paper discusses the feasibility of the change of the intermediate target of monetary policy in China. At present, China does not have the feasibility of changing the intermediate target, and should continue to adopt the money supply as the intermediate target of monetary policy. Therefore, from the perspective of financial innovation, exchange rate system and stability of money demand function, this paper analyzes the reasons for the decline of the suitability of money supply as an intermediary target. Finally, according to the analysis of the reasons, the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward. To improve the effectiveness of money supply as the intermediate target of monetary policy. According to the writing ideas, the following main conclusions are drawn: the effectiveness of money supply as the intermediate target of monetary policy in China is gradually declining, and its testability and controllability are poor. The degree of relevance to the final goal is not high; At present, the economic and financial environment of our country makes our country do not have the condition to change the intermediary target. At present, our country can not adopt the interest rate and inflation target system. At the same time, because of the inherent defects of social financing scale in statistics and its poor controllability, this index can not be used as the intermediate target of monetary policy; In the long run, due to the constant changes of our country's economic and financial situation, the intermediate target of our monetary policy is bound to be adjusted, but in the short term. We should also continue to use money supply as the intermediate target of our monetary policy, at the same time, we should do a good job of supporting measures: to improve the independence of the central bank, enhance the flexibility of the exchange rate system. Expand the statistical caliber of money supply, adopt new monetary quantity index, so as to improve the effectiveness of money supply as intermediary target.
【学位授予单位】：石河子大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F822.0;F224

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