最优财政和货币政策及其福利效应分析

发布时间：2018-01-15 12:24

本文关键词：最优财政和货币政策及其福利效应分析　出处：《经济评论》2011年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文建立了财政和货币政策协作的最优政策模型,并以中国经济为研究对象,以福利效应为最优政策的评估标准,研究了财政和货币政策协作的最优政策机制。分析表明:在Ramsey最优均衡下,财政和货币政策共同作用于通货膨胀和产出目标,以严格通货膨胀为目标的最优货币规则会使得政策的福利损失最小,但货币政策在产出目标、通货膨胀目标以及政策福利损失三者上不能同时兼顾;最优财政规则是趋向缩小收支差,从而趋近于福利损失最小。本文同时使用贝叶斯分析,对中国经济政策2005年第一季度至2009年第二季度的福利效应进行了评估,实证分析表明:样本期间政策的无条件福利损失处于波动状态,经济增长增加了家庭部门的条件福利损失,即经济增长导致跨期消费成本增加。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the optimal policy model of fiscal and monetary policy coordination is established, and the Chinese economy is taken as the research object, and the welfare effect is taken as the evaluation criterion of the optimal policy. This paper studies the optimal policy mechanism of fiscal and monetary policy coordination. The analysis shows that under the optimal equilibrium of Ramsey, fiscal and monetary policies act on inflation and output objectives together. The optimal monetary rules aiming at strict inflation will make the welfare loss of policy minimum, but monetary policy can not take into account the output target, inflation target and policy welfare loss at the same time. The optimal financial rule is to reduce the difference between income and expenditure, thus approaching to the minimum welfare loss. This paper also uses Bayesian analysis. This paper evaluates the welfare effect of Chinese economic policy from in the first quarter of 2005 to in the second quarter of 2009. The empirical analysis shows that the unconditional welfare loss of the policy is fluctuating during the sample period. Economic growth has increased the loss of conditional welfare in the household sector, that is, economic growth has led to an increase in intertemporal consumption costs.
【作者单位】：同济大学经济与金融系;
【分类号】：F812.0;F822.0;F224
【正文快照】： 一、前言弗里德曼的“单一货币规则”自财政政策的平衡预算以来宣告失效,理论和实践领域开始探寻新的货币政策工具规则。Taylor(1993)提出货币政策利率规则,经Taylor(1999,2000,2003)、Woodford(20012,003)等的拓展,形成了完善的货币政策简单规则,又称利率规则或通货膨胀目标

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